Drafting 'better regulation": The economic cost of regulatory complexity

Different public agencies are seeking to draft ?better regulation?. Complex or poorly drafted norms are more difficult for economic agents to implement, tending to erode economic efficiency. The literature has so far concentrated on the analysis of regulatory complexity as a phenomenon related to the ?quantity? of norms. This article guides the process of adopting new regulations, taking into account that norms can also be complex due to new ?qualitative? reasons such as linguistic ambiguity or relational structure (references between legal documents). To perform the analysis, we develop new indicators for legibility and regulatory interconnectedness. Specifically, we construct a new database (RECOS ? REgulation COmplexity in Spain) by extracting information from 8171 norms (61 million words) which comprise the regulations of all the Spanish Autonomous regions. Our analysis reveals the relationship between measures of ?qualitative? complexity and relevant economic (productivity) and institutional (judicial efficacy) variables. This researc

Music preferences as an instrument of emotional self-regulation along the business cycle.

This paper studies the influence of macroeconomic conditions on subjective wellbeing and music preferences. The macroeconomic cycle exerts an effect on happiness and well-being that consumers counterbalance by modifying music consumption. We use machine learning techniques to make a weekly classification of the top 100 songs of Billboard Hot 100 into positive and negative lyrics over the period 1958?2019. When unemployment is high, society generally prefers more positive songs. Other macroeconomic indicators such as high inflation, high interest rates or low stock market prices also affect musical preferences. These results provide initial evidence regarding the use of cultural consumption to offset business cycle oscillations

Advanced estimation of regional growth using LSTM neural networks

El trabajo propone incorporar técnicas de Inteligencia Artificial a las herramientas disponibles para el análisis de coyuntura regional. Se comparan las estimaciones realizadas con Redes Neuronales (en concreto, mediante la utilización de redes con larga memoria de corto plazo, LSTM por sus siglas en inglés) con los instrumentos más habituales en el análisis de coyuntura (series temporales, indicadores sintéticos y factores dinámicos). Los resultados muestran que los avances en redes neuronales pueden ser incorporados al análisis de coyuntura mejorando las estimaciones. Son herramientas complementarias, con mayor flexibilidad para captar la diversidad de situaciones en la economía real y con una capacidad de estimación superior (menor error cuadrático medio). El documento propone la utilización de este tipo de técnicas para solucionar una diversidad de problemas en economía regional.This paper studies the incorporation of Artificial Intelligence techniques to the set of tools available for the analysis of the regional situation. The estimates using long-short-term memory, LSTM, neural networks are compared with the most common instruments in the analysis of conjuncture (time series, synthetic indicators and dynamic factors). Results show that advances in neural networks can be incorporated into the tools used in regional economic analysis reducing the estimation error. They are complementary tools, with greater flexibility to capture the diversity of situations in the real economy and with a higher estimation capacity (lower mean square error). The document suggests the use of these types of techniques to solve a variety of problems in regional research

The variation of export prices across and within firms

This paper uses transaction-level trade data to analyze the differences in export prices across and within Spanish firms exporting manufactures in the 2010-2014 period. The transactional nature of the database uncovers sizable differences in the price that an exporter charges for the same product and destination. These differences are related with the number of goods covered within each product category, the exported quantity per transaction and the number of transactions carried out by firms

The contribution of granular and fundamental comparative advantage to European Union countries' export specialisation

This paper analyzes the contribution of fundamental comparative advantage (a country-speci c component) and granular comparative advantage (a rm-speci c component) to European Union countries' export specialization. We nd that, on average, granular comparative advantage may explain export specialization in 29% of industries, which account for 47% of total exports. We also show that 60% of the variation in export specialization across countries and industries may be explained by granular comparative advantage. These results highlight that some outstanding rms may play a very important role in explaining European Union countries' export specialization.Ministerio de Economía y CompetitividadGobierno VascoGeneralitat Valencian

Do firms react to supply chain disruptions?

Since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, the disruption of supply chains has become a major concern for global firms. This article uses a representative sample of Spanish manufacturers that participate in global value chains to analyze whether firms are implementing strategies to respond to this concern. Using data for the period 2017?2022, we find that, on average, manufacturers have not increased the number of countries from which they source their input since the Covid-19 pandemic. Firms have not either shifted their imports to countries that are geographically and geopolitically close to Spain, and have not reshored imports. However, firms have significantly increased the stock of intermediates. Firms only diversify when they have one supplier, export to many destinations, and the imported input has a high risk of experiencing a supply chain disruption. Firms nearshore and friendshore when their main supplier is geographically distant.Ministerio de Ciencia e InnovaciónGobierno Vasco. Departamento de EducaciónComunidad de MadridGeneralitat Valencian

Fosfomycin plus Beta-lactams: Synergistic Bactericidal Combinations in Methicillin-resistant (MRSA) and Glycopeptide-Intermediate Resistant (GISA) Staphylococcus aureus Experimental Endocarditis

The urgent need of effective therapies for methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) infective endocarditis (IE) is a cause of concern. We aimed to ascertain the in vitro and in vivo activity of the older antibiotic fosfomycin combined with different beta-lactams against MRSA and glycopeptide-intermediate-resistant S. aureus (GISA) strains. Time-kill tests with 10 isolates showed that fosfomycin plus imipenem (FOF+IPM) was the most active evaluated combination. In an aortic valve IE model with two strains (MRSA-277H and GISA-ATCC 700788), the following intravenous regimens were compared: fosfomycin (2 g every 8 h [q8h]) plus imipenem (1 g q6h) or ceftriaxone (2 g q12h) (FOF+CRO) and vancomycin at a standard dose (VAN-SD) (1 g q12h) and a high dose (VAN-HD) (1 g q6h). Whereas a significant reduction of MRSA-227H load in the vegetations (veg) was observed with FOF+IPM compared with VAN-SD (0 [interquartile range [IQR], 0 to 1] versus 2 [IQR, 0 to 5.1] log CFU/g veg; P = 0.01), no statistical differences were found with VAN-HD. In addition, FOF+IPM sterilized more vegetations than VAN-SD (11/15 [73%] versus 5/16 [31%]; P = 0.02). The GISA-ATCC 700788 load in the vegetations was significantly lower after FOF+IPM or FOF+CRO treatment than with VAN-SD (2 [IQR, 0 to 2] and 0 [IQR, 0 to 2] versus 6.5 [IQR, 2 to 6.9] log CFU/g veg; P < 0.01). The number of sterilized vegetations after treatment with FOF+CRO was higher than after treatment with VAN-SD or VAN-HD (8/15 [53%] versus 4/20 [20%] or 4/20 [20%]; P = 0.03). To assess the effect of FOF+IPM on penicillin binding protein (PBP) synthesis, molecular studies were performed, with results showing that FOF+IPM treatment significantly decreased PBP1, PBP2 (but not PBP2a), and PBP3 synthesis. These results allow clinicians to consider the use of FOF+IPM or FOF+CRO to treat MRSA or GISA IE.Copyright © 2015, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved

HCV-coinfection is related to an increased HIV-1 reservoir size in cART-treated HIV patients: a cross-sectional study

In HIV-1/HCV-coinfected patients, chronic HCV infection leads to an increased T-lymphocyte immune activation compared to HIV-monoinfected patients, thereby likely contributing to increase HIV-1 reservoir that is the major barrier for its eradication. Our objective was to evaluate the influence of HCV coinfection in HIV-1 viral reservoir size in resting (r) CD4+ T-cells (CD25-CD69-HLADR-). Multicenter cross-sectional study of 97 cART-treated HIV-1 patients, including 36 patients with HIV and HCV-chronic co-infection without anti-HCV treatment, 32 HIV patients with HCV spontaneous clearance and 29 HIV-monoinfected patients. rCD4+ T-cells were isolated and total DNA was extracted. HIV viral reservoir was measured by Alu-LTR qPCR. Differences between groups were calculated with a generalized linear model. Overall, 63.9% were men, median age of 41 years and Caucasian. Median CD4+ and CD8+ T-lymphocytes were 725 and 858 cells/mm 3 , respectively. CD4+ T nadir cells was 305 cells/mm 3 . Proviral HIV-1 DNA size was significantly increased in chronic HIV/HCV-coinfected compared to HIV-monoinfected patients (206.21 ± 47.38 vs. 87.34 ± 22.46, respectively; P = 0.009), as well as in spontaneously clarified HCV co-infected patients when compared to HIV-monoinfected individuals (136.20 ± 33.20; P = 0.009). HIV-1/HCV co-infected patients showed a larger HIV-1 reservoir size in comparison to HIV-monoinfected individuals. This increase could lead to a greater complexity in the elimination of HIV-1 reservoir in HIV-1/HCV-coinfected individuals, which should be considered in the current strategies for the elimination of HIV-1 reservoir.Financial support was provided by the Instituto de Salud Carlos III to VB (PI15CIII/00031), by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness to MC (SAF2016–78480-R) and The SPANISH AIDS Research Network RD16CIII/0002/0001, RD16CIII/0002/0002 and RD16/0025/0013 - ISCIII – FEDER. MRLP is supported by ISCIII - Subdirección General de Evaluacion and European Funding for Regional Development (FEDER) (PIE 13/00040 and RD12/0017/0017 RETIC de SIDA). C.P. is supported by the Portuguese Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT) (grant number SFRH/ BPD/77448/2011 is part of the EDCTP2 programme supported by the European Union). V.B., A.F.R. and N.R. are supported by the Miguel Servet programme from Fondo de Investigación Sanitaria (ISCIII) (grant number CP13/00098, CP14/CIII/00010 and CP14/00198, respectively)

IL-6 serum levels predict severity and response to tocilizumab in COVID-19: An observational study

Background: Patients with coronavirus disaese 2019 (COVID-19) can develop a cytokine release syndrome that eventually leads to acute respiratory distress syndrome requiring invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV). Because IL-6 is a relevant cytokine in acute respiratory distress syndrome, the blockade of its receptor with tocilizumab (TCZ) could reduce mortality and/or morbidity in severe COVID-19. Objective: We sought to determine whether baseline IL-6 serum levels can predict the need for IMV and the response to TCZ. Methods: A retrospective observational study was performed in hospitalized patients diagnosed with COVID-19. Clinical information and laboratory findings, including IL-6 levels, were collected approximately 3 and 9 days after admission to be matched with preadministration and postadministration of TCZ. Multivariable logistic and linear regressions and survival analysis were performed depending on outcomes: need for IMV, evolution of arterial oxygen tension/fraction of inspired oxygen ratio, or mortality. Results: One hundred forty-six patients were studied, predominantly males (66%); median age was 63 years. Forty-four patients (30%) required IMV, and 58 patients (40%) received treatment with TCZ. IL-6 levels greater than 30 pg/mL was the best predictor for IMV (odds ratio, 7.1; P < .001). Early administration of TCZ was associated with improvement in oxygenation (arterial oxygen tension/fraction of inspired oxygen ratio) in patients with high IL-6 (P = .048). Patients with high IL-6 not treated with TCZ showed high mortality (hazard ratio, 4.6; P = .003), as well as those with low IL-6 treated with TCZ (hazard ratio, 3.6; P = .016). No relevant serious adverse events were observed in TCZ-treated patients. Conclusions: Baseline IL-6 greater than 30 pg/mL predicts IMV requirement in patients with COVID-19 and contributes to establish an adequate indication for TCZ administrationThis study was funded by Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness (MINECO) and Instituto de Salud Carlos III (grant nos. RD16/0011/0012 and PI18/ 0371 to I.G.A., grant no. PI19/00549 to A.A., and grant no. SAF2017-82886-R to F.S.-M.) and co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund. The study was also funded by ‘‘La Caixa Banking Foundation’’ (grant no. HR17-00016 to F.S.-M.) and ‘‘Fondos Supera COVID19’’ by Banco de Santander and CRUE. None of these sponsors have had any role in study design; in the collection, analysis, and interpretation of data; in the writing of the report; and in the decision to submit the article for publicatio

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of the Largest HIV-1 CRF02_AG Outbreak in Spain: Evidence for Onward Transmissions

Background and Aim: The circulating recombinant form 02_AG (CRF02_AG) is the predominant clade among the human immunodeficiency virus type-1 (HIV-1) non-Bs with a prevalence of 5.97% (95% Confidence Interval-CI: 5.41–6.57%) across Spain. Our aim was to estimate the levels of regional clustering for CRF02_AG and the spatiotemporal characteristics of the largest CRF02_AG subepidemic in Spain.Methods: We studied 396 CRF02_AG sequences obtained from HIV-1 diagnosed patients during 2000–2014 from 10 autonomous communities of Spain. Phylogenetic analysis was performed on the 391 CRF02_AG sequences along with all globally sampled CRF02_AG sequences (N = 3,302) as references. Phylodynamic and phylogeographic analysis was performed to the largest CRF02_AG monophyletic cluster by a Bayesian method in BEAST v1.8.0 and by reconstructing ancestral states using the criterion of parsimony in Mesquite v3.4, respectively.Results: The HIV-1 CRF02_AG prevalence differed across Spanish autonomous communities we sampled from (p &lt; 0.001). Phylogenetic analysis revealed that 52.7% of the CRF02_AG sequences formed 56 monophyletic clusters, with a range of 2–79 sequences. The CRF02_AG regional dispersal differed across Spain (p = 0.003), as suggested by monophyletic clustering. For the largest monophyletic cluster (subepidemic) (N = 79), 49.4% of the clustered sequences originated from Madrid, while most sequences (51.9%) had been obtained from men having sex with men (MSM). Molecular clock analysis suggested that the origin (tMRCA) of the CRF02_AG subepidemic was in 2002 (median estimate; 95% Highest Posterior Density-HPD interval: 1999–2004). Additionally, we found significant clustering within the CRF02_AG subepidemic according to the ethnic origin.Conclusion: CRF02_AG has been introduced as a result of multiple introductions in Spain, following regional dispersal in several cases. We showed that CRF02_AG transmissions were mostly due to regional dispersal in Spain. The hot-spot for the largest CRF02_AG regional subepidemic in Spain was in Madrid associated with MSM transmission risk group. The existence of subepidemics suggest that several spillovers occurred from Madrid to other areas. CRF02_AG sequences from Hispanics were clustered in a separate subclade suggesting no linkage between the local and Hispanic subepidemics