1 research outputs found
Infectious Default Model with Recovery and Continuous Limit
We introduce an infectious default and recovery model for N obligors.
Obligors are assumed to be exchangeable and their states are described by N
Bernoulli random variables S_{i} (i=1,...,N). They are expressed by multiplying
independent Bernoulli variables X_{i},Y_{ij},Y'_{ij}, and default and recovery
infections are described by Y_{ij} and Y'_{ij}. We obtain the default
probability function P(k) for k defaults. Taking its continuous limit, we find
two nontrivial probability distributions with the reflection symmetry of S_{i}
\leftrightarrow 1-S_{i}. Their profiles are singular and oscillating and we
understand it theoretically. We also compare P(k) with an implied default
distribution function inferred from the quotes of iTraxx-CJ. In order to
explain the behavior of the implied distribution, the recovery effect may be
necessary.Comment: 13 pages, 7 figure