Stoat trap tunnel location : GIS predictive modelling to identify the best tunnel location : a thesis submitted in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Philosophy in Geographic Information Systems in Massey University

Stoats are recognised as one of the biggest threats to New Zealand's threatened species. They are difficult to control because of their biological characteristics. Currently trapping is the most common type of control technique that has a proven success rate. Research studies have shown that some traps catch more stoats than others. However the reason for this is not well documented. The effectiveness of a trap set is difficult to determine because not all trap locations are the same and not all people have the same ability to select the best location for a trap. This study uses GIS to spatially analyse stoat capture data from a control operation on Secretary Island in conjunction with commonly available vegetation, habitat, diet and home range spatial data to see if there are consistent patterns that could be used as variables in a model that would predict the best place to locate a stoat trap tunnel. The model would then be tested against a similar dataset from Resolution Island. The Department of Conservation supplied the stoat capture data from the control operations on both islands. Standard spatial analysis techniques were used to generate surfaces that combined the capture data with the vegetation, habitat, diet and home range surfaces to produce predictive surfaces. The key finding from the research was that it is possible to produce a predictive model, although one was not created because the spatial datasets were not of a high enough resolution to provide conclusive evidence that could be confidently used as a variable in a model. The spatial analysis also indicated that stoats on both islands were caught mainly in the warmer northwestern parts of the islands although the study could not determine why there was a preference for these areas. In rugged terrain like that found on both islands the location of the track network will influence where the majority of stoats will be caught

Do scenario context and question order influence WTP? The application of a model of uncertain WTP to the CV of the morbidity impacts of air pollution

This paper presents a general framework for modelling responses to contingent valuation questions when respondents are uncertain about their ‘true’ WTP. These models are applied to a contingent valuation data set recording respondents’ WTP to avoid episodes of ill-health. Two issues are addressed. First, whether the order in which a respondent answers a series of contingent valuation questions influences their WTP. Second, whether the context in which a good is valued (in this case the information the respondent is given concerning the cause of the ill-health episode or the policy put into place to avoid that episode) influences respondents’ WTP. The results of the modelling exercise suggest that neither valuation order nor the context included in the valuation scenario impact on the precision with which respondents answer the contingent valuation questions. Similarly, valuation order does not appear to influence the mean or median WTP of the sample. In contrast, it is shown that in some cases, the inclusion of richer context significantly shifts both the mean and median WTP of the sample. This result has implications for the application of benefits transfer. Since, WTP to avoid an episode of ill-health cannot be shown to be independent of the context in which it is valued, the validity of transferring benefits of avoided ill-health episodes from one policy context to another must be called into question

China's fiscal stimulus and the recession Australia never had

China's timely and well-targeted two-year fiscal stimulus was particularly effective in stimulating growth in Australia's commodity exports. Using a constructed series of export volumes to China, this paper finds that the post-stimulus GDP growth contribution from export volumes to China is significant. Had growth in export volumes to China been commensurate with pre-stimulus rates, Australia would have experienced three consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth � a technical recession. China's gradual and uniquely revenue-based unwinding of fiscal stimulus reduces the risk to Australia of an imminent growth slowdown

To Not Understand, but Not Misunderstand: Wittgenstein on Shakespeare

Wittgenstein's lack of sympathy for Shakespeare's works has been well noted by George Steiner and Harold Bloom among others. Wittgenstein writes in 1950, for instance: "It seems to me as though his pieces are, as it were, enormous sketches, not paintings; as though they were dashed off by someone who could permit himself anything, so to speak. And I understand how someone may admire this & call it supreme art, but I don't like it." Of course, the animosity of one great mind for another has its own interest. But the interest here is increased by two factors: (1) Wittgenstein's brief but specific critique of Shakespeare's similes, of interest particularly since he identifies his own philosophical strength half-deprecatingly but still seriously as one of crafting beautiful similes; and (2) Wittgenstein's and Shakespeare's shared concern, as revealed in Stanley Cavell's writings, with the human impulse to skepticism. The present paper considers the importance of these two factors in weighing Wittgenstein's judgment. It suggests that Wittgenstein's frequent charge that Shakespeare is "completely unrealistic" is not a misunderstanding of the Bard (Wittgenstein distinguishes his "failure to understand" from others' willingness to misunderstand Shakespeare) but rather an expression of Wittgenstein's anxiety over Shakespeare's wholly original use of language to represent the sound of the raw motives to skepticism