STATISTIČKO EVIDENTIRANJE AKTIVNOSTI MEĐUNARODNOG TURIZMA U PLATNOJ BILANCI REPUBLIKE HRVATSKE

Platna bilanca predstavlja sumarni iskaz ekonomskih transakcija rezidenata neke ekonomije s ostatkom svijeta u određenom vremenskom razdoblju. Udio tzv. tercijarnog sektora (usluga) u strukturi brutto društvenog proizvoda i u međunarodnoj razmjeni usluga vrlo je visok (s trendom daljnjeg povećanja). Kako se glavnina deviznih prihoda po osnovi izvoza usluga generira s inozemnih tržišta, statističkom praćenju aktivnosti međunarodnog turizma se pridaje velik značaj. Pojam pozicije "turizam" u platnobilančnoj statistici je širok i obuhvaća sve oblike turističke potrošnje (osim "shoppinga", u kojem je glavni motiv kupovina roba i uglavnom je jednodnevnog karaktera). Stoga je širi od definicije turizma određene odjeljkom 55 (Hoteli i restorani) Nacionalne klasifikacije djelatnosti koje se drže mnogi ekonomisti u raspravama o turizmu. Svjesni važnosti statistike međunarodnog turizma, djelatnici HNB neprestano rade na unapređivanju platnobilančne statistike turizma. U tom sklopu do sada su se koristile tri metodologije: 1. metodologija zasnovana na otkupu i prodaji deviza, 2. "prijelazna" metodologija, 3. metodologija zasnovana na anketiranju na graničnim prijelazima - zajednički projekt Hrvatske narodne banke i Instituta za turizam "Potrošnja inozemnih putnika u Hrvatskoj i domaćih putnika u inozemstvu". Osnovni cilj ovoga rada je pružiti pregled razvoja platnobilančne statistike međunarodnog turizma, te ukazati na još neriješena metodološka pitanja jer budući da vjerodostojno, precizno i statistički konzistentno praćenje aktivnosti međunarodnog turizma nije važno samo s aspekta statistike platne bilance, već i sa aspekta vođenja makroekonomske politike zemlje

Tendenzen in der Zahlungsbilanz der Republik Kroatien 1993–99: Eine Analyse des Umfelds, in dem es zur Entstehung des Kontokorrent- Defizits kam, sowie seine Ursachen und Finanzierung

Platna bilanca po definiciji predstavlja sumarni iskaz ekonomskih transakcija nekoga gospodarstva s ostatkom svijeta u određenom razdoblju. Platnobilančni podaci vrlo su važni za kreatore makroekonomske politike zemlje pri odlučivanju. Osnovni cilj ovoga rada je prikaz unutarnjih i vanjskih čimbenika koji su utjecali na kretanja u platnoj bilanci (kretanje plaća, repatrijacija devizne štednje, reprogrami inozemnog duga, kreditni rejting države, kamatne stope, krediti, carinska zaštita, državni proračun, tečaj i sl.), analiza kretanja na pojedinim računima i podračunima platne bilance u razdoblju od 1993. do 1999. godine te strukturna analiza financiranja deficita tekućega računa platne bilance. Tijekom prve dvije godine promatranoga razdoblja saldo tekućega računa platne bilance bio je u suficitu, a od 1995. godine, zbog djelovanja opisanih čimbenika započeo je trend širenja deficita (koji je zaustavljen u 1998. i 1999. godini, ali ne pokazuje obilježja "razvojnog karaktera"). Deficit tekućega računa je održiv onoliko dugo i u onom iznosu za koji vjerovnici vjeruju da je održiv, pod pretpostavkom da dužnik redovito podmiruje i namjerava i ubuduće podmirivati svoje obveze. Diverzifikacija izvora financiranja deficita tekućega računa platne bilance na različ ite oblike ulaganja i različite ročnosti svakako je poželjna, jer se rizik distribuira na više tržišta i više instrumenata. Opisane su promjene u strukturi financiranja deficita tekućega računa platne bilance Republike Hrvatske tijekom promatranoga razdoblja, oblici financiranja i instrumenti te se ukazuje na dugoročne aspekte opravdanosti uporabe pojedinih oblika i instrumenata.Balance of payments by definition is a summary account of economic transactions of a given economy with the rest of the world in a certain period of time. Balance of payments data are immensely important for the creators of a country\u27s macroeconomic policy in decision-making. The main objective of this work is a presentation of the internal and external factors that influenced balance of payments trends (salary trends, repatriation of foreign currency savings, foreign debt reprogramming, the country\u27s credit rating, interest rates, loans, customs protection, state budget, exchange rate etc.), the analysis of trends in certain balance of payments accounts and subaccounts in the period from the year 1993 to 1999, and the structural analysis of financing the balance of payments current account deficit. During the first two years of the period analysed the balance of payments current account balance was in surplus, whereas in 1995, due to the factors described, the trend of a spreading deficit started (which was stopped in 1998 and 1999, but has not been giving any signs of a "developing character"). The current account deficit can be sustained as long and up to the amount the creditors believe it can be sustained, under the assumption that the debtors regularly fulfill and show the intention of fulfilling their obligations in the future. Diversification of sources for financing the balance of payments\u27 current account deficit into different forms of investment and time limits is by all means desirable because the risk is distributed to multiple markets and instruments. Changes in the structure of financing the Croatian balance of payments\u27 current account deficit in the period mentioned are described, as well as the forms of financing and instruments. Furthermore, the long-term aspects of the justifiability of using certain forms and instruments have been indicated.Die Zahlungsbilanz stellt laut Definition die Summe aller wirtschaftlichen Transaktionen zwischen einer Volkswirtschaft und dem übrigen Ausland innerhalb eines bestimmten Zeitraums dar. Die daraus hervorgehenden Werte sind von großer Bedeutung für diejenigen politischen Kräfte, die bei der Gestaltung der Makroökonomie eines Landes das Sagen haben. Es ist das Hauptziel dieser Arbeit, die inneren und äußeren Faktoren aufzuzeigen, die auf die Tendenzen innerhalb der Zahlungsbilanz einen Einfluss ausübten (Gehaltsschwankungen, Repatriierung des Devisen- Sparaufkommens, Reprogrammierung der Auslandsschuld, Kreditwürdigkeit des Staates, Zinssätze, Kredite, Schutzzölle, Staatshaushalt, Währungskurs u.Ä.). Weitere Teile dieser Studie sind: eine Analyse der Tendenzen, die auf einzelnen Konten und Subkonten der Zahlungsbilanz im Zeitraum 1993–99 zutage treten, ferner eine Strukturanalyse zur Finanzierung des Kontokorrent-Defizits der Zahlungsbilanz. Im Laufe der ersten zwei Jahre des beobachteten Zeitraums verzeichnete man auf dem Zahlungsbilanz-Konto ein Suffizit. Ab 1995 setzte, infolge der genannten Faktoren, ein Trend zur Ausbreitung des Defizits ein (dem erst 1998 und 1999 Einhalt geboten wurde, ohne dass sich "Entwicklungsmerkmale" abgezeichnet hätten). Höhe und Dauer des Kontokorrent-Defizits sind von den Gläubigern selbst abhängig, allerdings unter der Voraussetzung, dass der Schuldner regelmäßig seinen Zahlungspflichten nachgeht und dies auch in Zukunft so halten will. Die Verteilung der Finanzlast zur Deckung des Kontokorrent-Defizits auf verschiedene Finanzierungsquellen – Investitionen, geänderte Zahlungsfristen – ist natürlich überaus erstrebenswert, da das Risiko in jeweils gemindertem Ausmaß von verschiedenen Märkten und einer größeren Anzahl von Finanzierungsinstrumenten getragen wird. Es folgt eine Beschreibung der Veränderungen innerhalb der Finanzierungsstruktur, mit der das Kontokorrent-Defizit der Zahlungsbilanz des kroatischen Staates behoben werden soll. Der Autor beschreibt ferner Formen und Instrumente der Finanzierung und verweist auf die langfristigen Aspekte, die die Nutzung der betreffenden Formen und Instrumente rechtfertigen. Die im Aufsatz geäußerten Standpunkte geben ausschließlich die persönliche Einstellung des Verfassers wieder und stimmen nicht notwendig überein mit den Standpunkten der Institution, bei der der Autor angestellt ist

STATISTIČKO EVIDENTIRANJE AKTIVNOSTI MEĐUNARODNOG TURIZMA U PLATNOJ BILANCI REPUBLIKE HRVATSKE

Platna bilanca predstavlja sumarni iskaz ekonomskih transakcija rezidenata neke ekonomije s ostatkom svijeta u određenom vremenskom razdoblju. Udio tzv. tercijarnog sektora (usluga) u strukturi brutto društvenog proizvoda i u međunarodnoj razmjeni usluga vrlo je visok (s trendom daljnjeg povećanja). Kako se glavnina deviznih prihoda po osnovi izvoza usluga generira s inozemnih tržišta, statističkom praćenju aktivnosti međunarodnog turizma se pridaje velik značaj. Pojam pozicije "turizam" u platnobilančnoj statistici je širok i obuhvaća sve oblike turističke potrošnje (osim "shoppinga", u kojem je glavni motiv kupovina roba i uglavnom je jednodnevnog karaktera). Stoga je širi od definicije turizma određene odjeljkom 55 (Hoteli i restorani) Nacionalne klasifikacije djelatnosti koje se drže mnogi ekonomisti u raspravama o turizmu. Svjesni važnosti statistike međunarodnog turizma, djelatnici HNB neprestano rade na unapređivanju platnobilančne statistike turizma. U tom sklopu do sada su se koristile tri metodologije: 1. metodologija zasnovana na otkupu i prodaji deviza, 2. "prijelazna" metodologija, 3. metodologija zasnovana na anketiranju na graničnim prijelazima - zajednički projekt Hrvatske narodne banke i Instituta za turizam "Potrošnja inozemnih putnika u Hrvatskoj i domaćih putnika u inozemstvu". Osnovni cilj ovoga rada je pružiti pregled razvoja platnobilančne statistike međunarodnog turizma, te ukazati na još neriješena metodološka pitanja jer budući da vjerodostojno, precizno i statistički konzistentno praćenje aktivnosti međunarodnog turizma nije važno samo s aspekta statistike platne bilance, već i sa aspekta vođenja makroekonomske politike zemlje

Tendenzen in der Zahlungsbilanz der Republik Kroatien 1993–99: Eine Analyse des Umfelds, in dem es zur Entstehung des Kontokorrent- Defizits kam, sowie seine Ursachen und Finanzierung

Platna bilanca po definiciji predstavlja sumarni iskaz ekonomskih transakcija nekoga gospodarstva s ostatkom svijeta u određenom razdoblju. Platnobilančni podaci vrlo su važni za kreatore makroekonomske politike zemlje pri odlučivanju. Osnovni cilj ovoga rada je prikaz unutarnjih i vanjskih čimbenika koji su utjecali na kretanja u platnoj bilanci (kretanje plaća, repatrijacija devizne štednje, reprogrami inozemnog duga, kreditni rejting države, kamatne stope, krediti, carinska zaštita, državni proračun, tečaj i sl.), analiza kretanja na pojedinim računima i podračunima platne bilance u razdoblju od 1993. do 1999. godine te strukturna analiza financiranja deficita tekućega računa platne bilance. Tijekom prve dvije godine promatranoga razdoblja saldo tekućega računa platne bilance bio je u suficitu, a od 1995. godine, zbog djelovanja opisanih čimbenika započeo je trend širenja deficita (koji je zaustavljen u 1998. i 1999. godini, ali ne pokazuje obilježja "razvojnog karaktera"). Deficit tekućega računa je održiv onoliko dugo i u onom iznosu za koji vjerovnici vjeruju da je održiv, pod pretpostavkom da dužnik redovito podmiruje i namjerava i ubuduće podmirivati svoje obveze. Diverzifikacija izvora financiranja deficita tekućega računa platne bilance na različ ite oblike ulaganja i različite ročnosti svakako je poželjna, jer se rizik distribuira na više tržišta i više instrumenata. Opisane su promjene u strukturi financiranja deficita tekućega računa platne bilance Republike Hrvatske tijekom promatranoga razdoblja, oblici financiranja i instrumenti te se ukazuje na dugoročne aspekte opravdanosti uporabe pojedinih oblika i instrumenata.Balance of payments by definition is a summary account of economic transactions of a given economy with the rest of the world in a certain period of time. Balance of payments data are immensely important for the creators of a country\u27s macroeconomic policy in decision-making. The main objective of this work is a presentation of the internal and external factors that influenced balance of payments trends (salary trends, repatriation of foreign currency savings, foreign debt reprogramming, the country\u27s credit rating, interest rates, loans, customs protection, state budget, exchange rate etc.), the analysis of trends in certain balance of payments accounts and subaccounts in the period from the year 1993 to 1999, and the structural analysis of financing the balance of payments current account deficit. During the first two years of the period analysed the balance of payments current account balance was in surplus, whereas in 1995, due to the factors described, the trend of a spreading deficit started (which was stopped in 1998 and 1999, but has not been giving any signs of a "developing character"). The current account deficit can be sustained as long and up to the amount the creditors believe it can be sustained, under the assumption that the debtors regularly fulfill and show the intention of fulfilling their obligations in the future. Diversification of sources for financing the balance of payments\u27 current account deficit into different forms of investment and time limits is by all means desirable because the risk is distributed to multiple markets and instruments. Changes in the structure of financing the Croatian balance of payments\u27 current account deficit in the period mentioned are described, as well as the forms of financing and instruments. Furthermore, the long-term aspects of the justifiability of using certain forms and instruments have been indicated.Die Zahlungsbilanz stellt laut Definition die Summe aller wirtschaftlichen Transaktionen zwischen einer Volkswirtschaft und dem übrigen Ausland innerhalb eines bestimmten Zeitraums dar. Die daraus hervorgehenden Werte sind von großer Bedeutung für diejenigen politischen Kräfte, die bei der Gestaltung der Makroökonomie eines Landes das Sagen haben. Es ist das Hauptziel dieser Arbeit, die inneren und äußeren Faktoren aufzuzeigen, die auf die Tendenzen innerhalb der Zahlungsbilanz einen Einfluss ausübten (Gehaltsschwankungen, Repatriierung des Devisen- Sparaufkommens, Reprogrammierung der Auslandsschuld, Kreditwürdigkeit des Staates, Zinssätze, Kredite, Schutzzölle, Staatshaushalt, Währungskurs u.Ä.). Weitere Teile dieser Studie sind: eine Analyse der Tendenzen, die auf einzelnen Konten und Subkonten der Zahlungsbilanz im Zeitraum 1993–99 zutage treten, ferner eine Strukturanalyse zur Finanzierung des Kontokorrent-Defizits der Zahlungsbilanz. Im Laufe der ersten zwei Jahre des beobachteten Zeitraums verzeichnete man auf dem Zahlungsbilanz-Konto ein Suffizit. Ab 1995 setzte, infolge der genannten Faktoren, ein Trend zur Ausbreitung des Defizits ein (dem erst 1998 und 1999 Einhalt geboten wurde, ohne dass sich "Entwicklungsmerkmale" abgezeichnet hätten). Höhe und Dauer des Kontokorrent-Defizits sind von den Gläubigern selbst abhängig, allerdings unter der Voraussetzung, dass der Schuldner regelmäßig seinen Zahlungspflichten nachgeht und dies auch in Zukunft so halten will. Die Verteilung der Finanzlast zur Deckung des Kontokorrent-Defizits auf verschiedene Finanzierungsquellen – Investitionen, geänderte Zahlungsfristen – ist natürlich überaus erstrebenswert, da das Risiko in jeweils gemindertem Ausmaß von verschiedenen Märkten und einer größeren Anzahl von Finanzierungsinstrumenten getragen wird. Es folgt eine Beschreibung der Veränderungen innerhalb der Finanzierungsstruktur, mit der das Kontokorrent-Defizit der Zahlungsbilanz des kroatischen Staates behoben werden soll. Der Autor beschreibt ferner Formen und Instrumente der Finanzierung und verweist auf die langfristigen Aspekte, die die Nutzung der betreffenden Formen und Instrumente rechtfertigen. Die im Aufsatz geäußerten Standpunkte geben ausschließlich die persönliche Einstellung des Verfassers wieder und stimmen nicht notwendig überein mit den Standpunkten der Institution, bei der der Autor angestellt ist

Residential property price index in Croatia: from experimental to official statistics

The official statistics framework is based on internationally agreed standards, taking into account the core principles of impartiality, objectivity, professional independence, cost effectiveness, statistical confidentiality, minimisation of the reporting burden and high output quality. Since the latest 2007 global economic crisis, a growing demand for more, better and timelier data under limited resources for compilers and reporting agents has been observed. The concept of experimental statistics becomes more relevant, despite the lower quality in terms of coverage, data sources and harmonised definitions. The main aim of this paper is to present the methodological development of the residential property price index in Croatia from experimental to official statistics, as well as to show corresponding changes in time, which occurred due to the changes in methodological framework, institutional responsibility for compilation, coverage and data sources. A general conclusion of the paper is that publication of non-harmonized experimental statistics results, together with explanatory metadata, is better from the point of view of users than having nothing produced by official statistics

VOLATILITY OF CAPITAL FLOWS IN EMERGING EUROPEAN ECONOMIES: LESSONS FROM ASIA

Low interest rates in advanced economies contributed to massive private capital flows around the world in search of higher rates on investment in the final decades of the past century and the beginning of this one. Emerging market economies in Europe became an attractive destination for significant amounts of that capital, most notably foreign direct investment, given their political and economic reforms, including opening up and liberalization of their capital accounts. Closing the gap between domestic saving and investment in those countries the FDI received helped improve the growth performance of those economies. However, it also contributed to the formation of large current account deficits. The global financial and economic crisis of 2008-2009 changed the push factors in the advanced economies and the previously abundant capital flows to the emerging European economies slowed down significantly. That immediately affected the growth rates but the current account deficits remained large. The aim of this paper is to investigate how the emerging European economies reacted to the sudden stop in international capital flows and what are the consequences. The inspiration is to look at the Asian economies that after their financial crisis of 1997-1998 emerged stronger than before, running persistent current account surpluses and becoming major creditors in the world. The analysis is based on the IMF World and Regional Economic Outlook databases, the Eurostat, the Asian Development Bank sources and the National Banks\u27 data in European countries

Utjecaj međunarodnog okruženja na izvoznu konkurentnost Hrvatske

Osnovni je cilj ovoga rada provedba analize utjecaja međunarodnog okruženja na izvoznu konkurentnost Republike Hrvatske, posebno u razdoblju nakon izbijanja globalne ekonomske krize 2007. Promjene koje se događaju u međunarodnom okruženju i koje imaju implikacije na izvoznu konkurentnost Hrvatske u velikoj su mjeri bile determinirane učinkom djelovanja globalne krize, krize Eurozone, ali i promjenama vanjskotrgovinskih tokova i uvjeta razmjene nakon ulaska Republike Hrvatske u punopravno članstvo EU sredinom 2013. S obzirom na to da je hrvatski izvoz po izbijanju globalne ekonomske krize i krize Eurozone stagnirao (zbog oslabljene potražnje od strane naših glavnih vanjskotrgovinskih partnera), Hrvatska je dobila novu šansu za izvoznu ekspanziju po pristupanju u EU, kada su hrvatski izvoznici dobili dodatni poticaj u obliku otvaranja velikog zajedničkog tržišta i tu priliku ne smiju propustiti

PRISTUPANJE HRVATSKE SVJETSKOJ TRGOVINSKOJ ORGANIZACIJI: RAVNOTEŽNA ANALIZA

U ovome radu analiziramo učinke liberalizacije hrvatske vanjskotrgovinske politike na njezino gospodarstvo, koristeći se kvantitativnim, multiregionalnim modelom opće ravnoteže. Preduvjet za zaključenje potpunog trgovinskog sporazuma s Europskom unijom jest priključenje Hrvatske Svjetskoj trgovinskoj organizaciji koja traži postupne i potpune reforme hrvatske vanjskotrgovinske politike. Polazeći od sadašnjeg stanja, koristimo se simulacijskim modelom da bismo odredili smjer i intenzitet promjena blagostanja izazvanoga postupnim i potpunim reformama. Prema našim bi nalazima Hrvatska u počecima svoje liberalizacije mogla očekivati neznatno smanjenje blagostanja, ali puna liberalizacija dovodi do njegova porasta. Zbog toga je važno uočiti da se početne reforme promatraju samo kao prvi korak koji će s vremenom dovesti do pozitivnih učinaka. Između ostaloga, namjera je našeg pristupa i ponuditi simulacijski model koji se može koristiti za ponovnu analizu spomenutih problema u novim uvjetima i za analizu toga kako kvalitetniji podaci postaju dostupnijima

THE IMPACT OF STOCK-FLOW ADJUSTMENTS ON CHANGES IN CROATIAN GENERAL GOVERNMENT DEBT LEVEL

Surveillance of government deficit and debt data is a very important issue from the point of view of national policy makers, as well as international financial and statistical organizations. Deficit and debt developments in EU member states has been regularly (twice a year) monitored by Eurostat, which collects and publishes so called excessive deficit procedure (EDP) statistics on government deficit and debt. The European Commission uses the EDP statistics to assess whether EU Member States\u27 government deficits and debt levels comply with the relevant EU legislation (according to the Maastricht Treaty criteria, government deficit should be less or equal to 3% and government debt less or equal to 60%) of GDP. Deficit and debt data are published mostly in relative terms, i.e. compared with the nominal GDP and compiled according to the ESA2010 methodology. In simplified theory, annual government deficit/surplus should be equal to change in the level of government debt at the end of the actual year and at the end of the previous year. In reality, this is not true due to the impact of the stock-flow adjustments (SFA), which explains the difference between the change in government debt and the government deficit/surplus for a given year. Main aim of this paper is to identify the main factors contributing the changes in government debt other than deficit/surplus (SFA) in Croatia during the period 2010-2017. Those factors are divided into three main categories: net acquisition of financial assets (further broken down by financial instruments), adjustments (for coverage, valuation and exchange rate changes) and statistical discrepancies (reflects differences arising from the use of various data sources). Second, not less important aim of paper is to identify size and impact of the particular SFA factors on changes in debt level during the observed period in Croatia, and based on results obtained, short recommendations for Croatian policymakers will be outlined