An Improved Method for Calibrating Purchase Intentions in Stated Preference Demand Models

The Orbit demand model allows the magnitude of the calibration to stated purchase intentions to vary based on the magnitude of the stated quantities. Using an empirical example of stated trips, we find that the extent of calibration varies substantially with less correction needed at small stated trips (–25%) but larger corrections at higher quantities of stated visits (–48%). We extend the Orbit model to calculate consumer surplus per stated trip of $26. Combining the calibrations in stated trips and value per trip, the Orbit model provides estimates of annual benefits from 60% to 111% less than the count data model.hypothetical bias, Orbit, ordered probit model, travel cost model, recreation, stated preference, Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, Consumer/Household Economics, Demand and Price Analysis, Financial Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, Marketing, Production Economics, Productivity Analysis, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, D12, H44, Q26, Q51,

The Impacts of WTO and Water Policy Changes on Saudi Arabian Agriculture: Results from an Equilibrium Displacement Model

Saudi Arabia's food consumption has grown dramatically over time. There has been a sharp increase in food consumption and significant changes in the composition of food consumed. Therefore, it is important that the government of Saudi Arabia anticipate further effects of these changes on growth of food demand and focus on food policies that contribute to development goals. On the other hand, limited agricultural productivity and the nature of the country's climatic conditions have constrained agricultural production. This restricted growth in production, combined with population growth, has led Saudi Arabia to depend heavily on food imports to cover the gap between domestic demand and local production. The increased reliance on imports as a source of food will increase the country's import demand. These main problems facing the Saudi agricultural sector suggest the need for an analytical framework that can evaluate effects of policy and resource change on imports, local production and local demand simultaneously. Ideally, the framework should account for substitution and income effects across products that might arise from changes in consumption and production patterns. This is the main objective of this paper.Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety,

A New Approach to Correct for Hypothetical Bias in Stated Preference Models

Many times economists are asked to estimate the demand for new consumer goods or services for which no market data exists. Typically market researchers and economists answer this challenge using surveys that ask about intended purchases (Louviere, et al. 2000) or what has become known as stated preference (SP) data. Tying this data to revealed preference (RP), or actual behavior, has been a target in a number of studies. Simplistic calibrations have been investigated in past RP-SP studies, such as Loomis, et al. 2001. This paper offers an alternative solution that allows the magnitude of the calibration correction to vary based on Klein and Sherman's (1997) Orbit procedure. This paper extends the original Orbit procedure of Klein and Sherman by Combining stated and revealed preference data on quantities and prices in the first stage, incorporating a correction for heteroskedasticity, and developing methods to calculate consumer surplus and elasticities.Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Welfare Impacts of Rural to Urban Water Transfers: An Equilibrium Displacement Approach

Food Security and Poverty,

A NATIONWIDE, STATE-LEVEL, ANALYSIS OF ANIMAL CONFINEMENT POLICY BY SELECTED SPECIES

We have addressed the impact of state environmental regulation on the livestock industry by selected two species. Beef cattle, as a leading livestock of the U.S, has experienced relatively steady structural transformation, on the other hand, hog industry has changed rapidly of its size and the location. The beef industry more or less sticks with traditional factors rather than regulation. On the other hand, the hog industry, which has more chance to adopt the stringency of state regulation during the special movement, is more sensitive by the stringency of regulation, especially in the large operation.Livestock Production/Industries,

THE ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL ASPECTS OF COLORADO'S GOLF INDUSTRY

Community/Rural/Urban Development, Environmental Economics and Policy,

The Livestock Economy of Pakistan: An Agricultural Sector Model Approach

The Pakistan Agricultural Sector Model (PASM) developed by Davies et al. (1991) was modified to enhance the livestock sub-sector. Nutrient-based rations replaced feedstuff-based rations and dry matter minimum and maximum constraints (stomach capacity) were added. Several initial simulations were undertaken to examine the structure of the modified model and its impact across the crop and livestock sub-sectors. These simulations included relaxing exogenous livestock numbers and selected crop hectarage constraints, and requiring that green forage be fed in the season grown. Most importantly, the results demonstrated that fodder hectarage will grow with livestock numbers to insure that sufficient green forage is available seasonally. Two other analyses were performed to demonstrate the need to specify linkages between the crop and livestock sub-sectors. An analysis of transforming the livestock sub-sector from traditional to feedlot-based technology demonstrated that the reduced numbers of non-milking cattle needed for a given output of meat would provide the potential for increased production of various crops and other livestock products. Also, expanded cotton and Irri rice exports, hypothesised to occur through trade liberalisation from the Uruguay Round of the GATT, highlighted other inter-relationships between the crop and livestock sub-sectors. Greater production of both livestock and other crops might accompany the expansion of cotton production but less livestock feed would be available with expanded exports of Irri rice.

PRICE RELATIONSHIPS FOR MEXICAN FRESH TOMATOES IN U.S. AND MEXICAN TERMINAL MARKETS

Tomato trade between the U.S. and Mexico has grown significantly during the past decade, with significant implications for markets in both countries. This work examines how terminal market prices for Mexican fresh tomatoes are being affected by price dynamics in distant, integrated markets by analyzing reaction patterns to various innovation shocks. We conclude that a high interdependence in the price formation process between Mexican markets and Los Angeles, as well as among Mexican markets, exists.Crop Production/Industries, Demand and Price Analysis,

ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY INFLUENCES ON LIVESTOCK STOCKING AND LOCATION DECISIONS

This paper explores the relationship between state level environmental regulations and stocking and location decisions in the U.S livestock and poultry industry (beef, chicken, dairy and hogs). Rather than conduct this analysis on a species-by-species basis, we choose to focus upon the overall size of the livestock industry (expressed in animal units) and the size of industry found on large, medium and small operations by state (48) and over time (28 yrs). Results indicate that industry may drive policy rather than the converse. However, since we also find that existing policy rules have differential impacts on the industry by operation size, we conclude that structural change in the industry may be driven in part by size or legal structure discriminating regulations.Demand and Price Analysis, Livestock Production/Industries,