Simulating vegetation shifts and carbon cycling in Yosemite National Park

The vegetation in Yosemite National Park changed during the 20th century and may change in the 21st century in response to climate change. Vegetation surveys made during the 1930s and the 1990s provide benchmark records separated by 60 years. This study uses the MC1 dynamic global vegetation model to forecast and hindcast spatially explicit potential vegetation patterns in Yosemite National Park for the 20th and 21st centuries, and uses the vegetation surveys to calibrate the model and assess model performance. The model hindcast for the 20th century was for minor vegetation changes, the most significant being a shift from montane conifer forest to mixed forest in 5% of the Park area. However the vegetation surveys record an increase of montane conifer forest amounting to 15% of the Park area, most coming from subalpine forest. The fact that the 1997 survey is more closely matched by simulation results from earlier in the 20th century than by the simulation results for the late 20th century leads to an interpretation of the “hindcast” as being temporally ahead of the observed vegetation, and of the observed vegetation change as reflecting a transition from earlier climates. In contrast to the minimal change simulated for the 20th century, the simulations for the future show large changes in potential vegetation in the mid and late 21st century, brought about by rising temperatures and by a large increase in wildfire, especially near the end of the century. Results of these simulations at 800 m resolution are compared with results from earlier studies at coarser spatial resolution. The biogeography algorithm used in this study is described in detail. A metric for comparing two time series of annual vegetation maps is developed

Climate Change and Land Management Impact Rangeland Condition and Sage-Grouse Habitat in Southeastern Oregon

Contemporary pressures on sagebrush steppe from climate change, exotic species, wildfire, and land use change threaten rangeland species such as the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus). To effectively manage sagebrush steppe landscapes for long-term goals, managers need information about the potential impacts of climate change, disturbances, and management activities. We integrated information from a dynamic global vegetation model, a sage-grouse habitat climate envelope model, and a state-and-transition simulation model to project broad-scale vegetation dynamics and potential sage-grouse habitat across 23.5 million acres in southeastern Oregon. We evaluated four climate scenarios, including continuing current climate and three scenarios of global climate change, and three management scenarios, including no management, current management and a sage-grouse habitat restoration scenario. All climate change scenarios projected expansion of moist shrub steppe and contraction of dry shrub steppe, but climate scenarios varied widely in the projected extent of xeric shrub steppe, where hot, dry summer conditions are unfavorable for sage-grouse. Wildfire increased by 26% over the century under current climate due to exotic grass encroachment, and by two- to four-fold across all climate change scenarios as extreme fire years became more frequent. Exotic grasses rapidly expanded in all scenarios as large areas of the landscape initially in semi-degraded condition converted to exotic-dominated systems. Due to the combination of exotic grass invasion, juniper encroachment, and climatic unsuitability for sage-grouse, projected sage-grouse habitat declined in the first several decades, but increased in area under the three climate change scenarios later in the century, as moist shrub steppe increased and rangeland condition improved. Management activities in the model were generally unsuccessful in controlling exotic grass invasion but were effective in slowing woodland expansion. Current levels of restoration treatments were insufficient to prevent some juniper expansion, but increased treatment rates under the restoration scenario maintained juniper near initial levels in priority treatment areas. Our simulations indicate that climate change may have both positive and negative implications for maintaining sage-grouse habitat

Development of a single-session, transdiagnostic preventive intervention for young adults at risk for emotional disorders

Cognitive-behavioral prevention programs have demonstrated efficacy in reducing subclinical symptoms of anxiety and depression, and there is some evidence to suggest that they can lower the risk of future disorder onset. However, existing interventions tend to be relatively lengthy and target specific disorders or problem areas, both of which limit their potential for widespread dissemination. To address these limitations, we aimed to develop a single-session, transdiagnostic preventive intervention based on the Unified Protocol for Transdiagnostic Treatment of Emotional Disorders for young adults at risk for developing anxiety and/or depressive disorders within a college setting. Results from this proof-of-concept study indicated that the intervention was viewed as highly satisfactory and acceptable. The intervention also was successful at delivering adaptive emotion management skills in its 2-hr workshop format. Future studies evaluating the efficacy of this novel transdiagnostic, emotion-focused prevention program are warranted.Accepted manuscrip

The unified protocol for transdiagnostic treatment of emotional disorders compared with diagnosis-specific protocols for anxiety disorders a randomized clinical trial

IMPORTANCE: Transdiagnostic interventions have been developed to address barriers to the dissemination of evidence-based psychological treatments, but only a few preliminary studies have compared these approaches with existing evidence-based psychological treatments. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the Unified Protocol for Transdiagnostic Treatment of Emotional Disorders (UP) is at least as efficacious as single-disorder protocols (SDPs) in the treatment of anxiety disorders. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: From June 23, 2011, to March 5, 2015, a total of 223 patients at an outpatient treatment center with a principal diagnosis of panic disorder with or without agoraphobia, generalized anxiety disorder, obsessive-compulsive disorder, or social anxiety disorder were randomly assigned by principal diagnosis to the UP, an SDP, or a waitlist control condition. Patients received up to 16 sessions of the UP or an SDP for 16 to 21 weeks. Outcomes were assessed at baseline, after treatment, and at 6-month follow-up. Analysis in this equivalence trial was based on intention to treat. INTERVENTIONS: The UP or SDPs. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Blinded evaluations of principal diagnosis clinical severity rating were used to evaluate an a priori hypothesis of equivalence between the UP and SDPs. RESULTS: Among the 223 patients (124 women and 99 men; mean [SD] age, 31.1 [11.0] years), 88 were randomized to receive the UP, 91 to receive an SDP, and 44 to the waitlist control condition. Patients were more likely to complete treatment with the UP than with SDPs (odds ratio, 3.11; 95% CI, 1.44-6.74). Both the UP (Cohen d, −0.93; 95% CI, −1.29 to −0.57) and SDPs (Cohen d, −1.08; 95% CI, −1.43 to −0.73) were superior to the waitlist control condition at acute outcome. Reductions in clinical severity rating from baseline to the end of treatment (β, 0.25; 95% CI, −0.26 to 0.75) and from baseline to the 6-month follow-up (β, 0.16; 95% CI, −0.39 to 0.70) indicated statistical equivalence between the UP and SDPs. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The UP produces symptom reduction equivalent to criterion standard evidence-based psychological treatments for anxiety disorders with less attrition. Thus, it may be possible to use 1 protocol instead of multiple SDPs to more efficiently treat the most commonly occurring anxiety and depressive disorders.This study was funded by grant R01 MH090053 from the National Institute of Mental Health. (R01 MH090053 - National Institute of Mental Health)First author draf

Local atmospheric decoupling in complex topography alters climate change impacts

Cold air drainage and pooling occur in many mountain valleys, especially at night and during winter. Local climate regimes associated with frequent cold air pooling have substantial impacts on species phenology, distribution and diversity. However, little is known about how the degree and frequency of cold air drainage and pooling will respond to a changing climate. Evidence suggests that, because cold pools are decoupled from the free atmosphere, these local climates may not respond in the same way as regional-scale climates estimated from coarse-grid general circulation models. Indeed, recent studies have demonstrated that historical changes in the frequency of synoptic conditions have produced complex spatial variations in the resulting climatic changes on the ground. In the mountainous terrain of the Oregon Cascades, we show that, at relatively exposed hill slope and ridge top locations, air temperatures are highly coupled to changes in synoptic circulation patterns at the 700-hPa level, whereas in sheltered valley bottoms, cold air pooling at night and during winter causes temperatures to be largely decoupled from, and relatively insensitive to, 700-hPa flow variations. The result is a complex temperature landscape composed of steep gradients in temporal variation, controlled largely by gradients in elevation and topographic position. When a projected climate warming of 2.5 °C was combined with likely changes in the frequency distribution of synoptic circulation, modelled temperature changes at closely spaced locations diverged widely (by up to 6°C), with differences equalling or exceeding that of the imposed regional temperature change. Because cold air pooling and consequent atmospheric decoupling occur in many mountain valleys, especially at high latitudes, this phenomenon is likely to be an important consideration in understanding the impacts of climate change in mountainous regions.Keywords: complex terrain, synoptic circulation, cold air pooling, cold air drainage, temperature, Climate change, climate impactsKeywords: complex terrain, synoptic circulation, cold air pooling, cold air drainage, temperature, Climate change, climate impact

Finding Water Scarcity Amid Abundance Using Human–Natural System Models

Water scarcity afflicts societies worldwide. Anticipating water shortages is vital because of water’s indispensable role in social-ecological systems. But the challenge is daunting due to heterogeneity, feedbacks, and water’s spatial-temporal sequencing throughout such systems. Regional system models with sufficient detail can help address this challenge. In our study, a detailed coupled human–natural system model of one such region identifies how climate change and socioeconomic growth will alter the availability and use of water in coming decades. Results demonstrate how water scarcity varies greatly across small distances and brief time periods, even in basins where water may be relatively abundant overall. Some of these results were unexpected and may appear counterintuitive to some observers. Key determinants of water scarcity are found to be the cost of transporting and storing water, society’s institutions that circumscribe human choices, and the opportunity cost of water when alternative uses compete

A preliminary examination of the effects of transdiagnostic versus single diagnosis protocols on anger during the treatment of anxiety disorders

Dysregulated anger is often present in the emotional (i.e., anxiety, mood, and related) disorders, however it is rarely targeted in treatment. Transdiagnostic treatments, which focus on processes that contribute to dysregulated emotions across the range of psychopathology, might represent an efficient way to treat this anger. Using a subset of data from a recently completed equivalency trial comparing the Unified Protocol for Transdiagnostic Treatment of Emotional Disorders (UP) to single diagnosis protocols (SDPs) for specific disorders, this study began exploring whether the UP led to great reductions in anger compared to the SDPs. Results indicated that there was a small, non-significant, decrease in anger in the UP condition, whereas there was a moderate, non-significant increase in anger in the SDP condition. At post treatment, UP patients had significantly lower anger scores than patients who received a SDP. These preliminary results suggest that transdiagnostic treatments may be well poised to target dyregulated anger in the context of emotional disorders.Accepted manuscrip

Designing clinical trials in paediatric inflammatory bowel diseases:a PIBDnet commentary

Introduction: The optimal trial design for assessing novel therapies in paediatric IBD (PIBD) is a subject of intense ongoing global discussions and debate among the different stakeholders. However, there is a consensus that the current situation in which most medications used in children with IBD are prescribed as off-label without sufficient paediatric data is unacceptable. Shortening the time lag between adult and paediatric approval of drugs is of the upmost importance. In this position paper we aimed to provide guidance from the global clinical research network (Pediatric Inflammatory Bowel Disease Network, PIBDnet) for designing clinical trials in PIBD in order to facilitate drug approval for children. Methods: A writing group has been established by PIBDnet and topics were assigned to different members. After an iterative process of revisions among the writing group and one face-to-face meeting, all statements have reached consensus of >80% as defined a priori. Next, all core members of PIBDnet voted on the statements, reaching consensus of >80% on all statements. Comments from the members were incorporated in the text. Results: The commentary includes 18 statements for guiding data extrapolation from adults, eligibility criteria to PIBD trials, use of placebo, dosing, endpoints and recommendations for feasible trials. Controversial issues have been highlighted in the text. Conclusion: The viewpoints expressed in this paper could assist planning clinical trials in PIBD which are both of high quality and ethical, while remaining pragmatic

A global threats overview for Numeniini populations: synthesising expert knowledge for a group of declining migratory birds

The Numeniini is a tribe of thirteen wader species (Scolopacidae, Charadriiformes) of which seven are near-threatened or globally threatened, including two critically endangered. To help inform conservation management and policy responses, we present the results of an expert assessment of the threats that members of this taxonomic group face across migratory flyways. Most threats are increasing in intensity, particularly in non-breeding areas, where habitat loss resulting from residential and commercial development, aquaculture, mining, transport, disturbance, problematic invasive species, pollution and climate change were regarded as having the greatest detrimental impact. Fewer threats (mining, disturbance, problematic native species and climate change) were identified as widely affecting breeding areas. Numeniini populations face the greatest number of non-breeding threats in the East Asian-Australasian Flyway, especially those associated with coastal reclamation; related threats were also identified across the Central and Atlantic Americas, and East Atlantic flyways. Threats on the breeding grounds were greatest in Central and Atlantic Americas, East Atlantic and West Asian flyways. Three priority actions were associated with monitoring and research: to monitor breeding population trends (which for species breeding in remote areas may best be achieved through surveys at key non-breeding sites), to deploy tracking technologies to identify migratory connectivity, and to monitor land-cover change across breeding and non-breeding areas. Two priority actions were focused on conservation and policy responses: to identify and effectively protect key non-breeding sites across all flyways (particularly in the East Asian - Australasian Flyway), and to implement successful conservation interventions at a sufficient scale across human-dominated landscapes for species’ recovery to be achieved. If implemented urgently, these measures in combination have the potential to alter the current population declines of many Numeniini species and provide a template for the conservation of other groups of threatened species

Microscale characterization of prostate biopsies tissues using optical coherence elastography and second harmonic generation imaging

© 2018 USCAP, Inc All rights reserved. Photonics, especially optical coherence elastography (OCE) and second harmonic generation (SHG) imaging are novel high-resolution imaging modalities for characterization of biological tissues. Following our preliminary experience, we hypothesized that OCE and SHG imaging would delineate the microstructure of prostate tissue and aid in distinguishing cancer from the normal benign prostatic tissue. Furthermore, these approaches may assist in characterization of the grade of cancer, as well. In this study, we confirmed a high diagnostic accuracy of OCE and SHG imaging in the detection and characterization of prostate cancer for a large set of biopsy tissues obtained from men suspected to have prostate cancer using transrectal ultrasound (TRUS). The two techniques and methods described here are complementary, one depicts the stiffness of tissues and the other illustrates the orientation of collagen structure around the cancerous lesions. The results showed that stiffness of cancer tissue was ∼57.63% higher than that of benign tissue (Young's modulus of 698.43±125.29 kPa for cancerous tissue vs 443.07±88.95 kPa for benign tissue with OCE. Using histology as a reference standard and 600 kPa as a cut-off threshold, the data analysis showed sensitivity and specificity of 89.6 and 99.8%, respectively. Corresponding positive and negative predictive values were 99.5 and 94.6%, respectively. There was a significant difference noticed in terms of Young's modulus for different Gleason scores estimated by OCE (P-value<0.05). For SHG, distinct patterns of collagen distribution were seen for different Gleason grade disease with computed quantification employing a ratio of anisotropic to isotropic (A:I ratio) and this correlated with disease aggressiveness