Exchange Rate Pegs and Foreign Exchange Exposure in East Asia

This paper shows that many East Asian firms are significantly exposed to foreign exchange risk. Their exposure appears to be much more widespread than is typical for the large, western industrialized economies. The paper also shows that exchange rate pegs appear to do little to alleviate this widespread exposure against currencies other than the peg. The East Asian firms studied here are most exposed to fluctuations in the U.S. dollar, and the mark and yen are important in a few countries. The extent of their exchange rate exposure has varied, but not diminished, over the last decade. The most widespread exchange rate sensitivity (not just the most exchange rate fluctuation) occurred during the Asian Crisis period; this is evident even after accounting for the local macroeconomic conditions that affect aggregate local returns.foreign exchange exposure, exchange rate pegs, east asia

INFLATION AND PRICE DISPERSION IN EQUITY MARKETS AND IN GOODS AND SERVICES MARKETS

An empirical link between inflation and price dispersion has been well established in goods and services markets – both across time periods and across countries. However, the economic interpretation of this link has been typically frustrated by the observational equivalence of the predictions of the prominent theories. This prompts us to take a new approach. Specifically, we examine the link between inflation and price dispersion in an empirical setting patently lacking the market characteristics central to these theories (i.e., menu costs, or relative/aggregate confusion). In particular, we benchmark the inflation-dispersion link in goods and services markets with a matched panel of equity market prices. Surprisingly, we find that a link – comparable to that found in markets for goods and services – does exist in the equity market. Moreover, we find that our results are not due to a potentially important, but generally overlooked, bias that is present in many existing studies. Our results suggest that the debate over the factors responsible for the inflation/price dispersion link should be broadened to account for the asset market links we document.relative price variability, stock markets, goods markets, inflation

GDP Synchronicity and Risk Sharing Channels in a Monetary Union: Blue State and Red States

We examine state GDP comovement and consumption risk-sharing channels within the United States as a whole, and among states whose populations have voted consistently Democrat (Blue) or Republican (Red) in national elections. We document three facts: (1) state GDP growth is asynchronous, and Blue and Red states are particularly out of sync; (2) at the same time, interstate consumption risk-sharing is very high{it is high even across the political divide, and it is high even where the role of fiscal flows is minimal; and (3) the channels of risk sharing across Blue, Red, and Swing states are quite different

Understanding Real Exchange Rate Movements with Trade in Intermediate Products

We suggest it may be "too easy" to attribute real exchange rate movements to law of one price deviations. We show that it is immaterial whether one uses seemingly traded goods, nontraded goods, or even just a single, unimportant consumer good, say beer. The ease of attributing the variation to any such deviations is explained using a model with intermediate goods trade. In the model, the stage of production determines the traded/nontraded distinction. We find empirical substantiation for the model: law of one price deviations lose explanatory power; and - defined appropriately in terms of intermediate goods - relative prices matter

Understanding Real Exchange Rate Movements with Trade in Intermediate Products

We suggest it may be "too easy" to attribute real exchange rate movements to law of one price deviations. We show that it is immaterial whether one uses seemingly traded goods, nontraded goods, or even just a single, unimportant consumer good, say beer. The ease of attributing the variation to any such deviations is explained using a model with intermediate goods trade. In the model, the stage of production determines the traded/nontraded distinction. We find empirical substantiation for the model: law of one price deviations lose explanatory power; and - defined appropriately in terms of intermediate goods - relative prices matter

Foreign Exchange Exposure and Exchange Rate Arrangements in East Asia

This paper shows that many East Asian firms are significantly exposed to foreign exchange risk. Their exposure appears to be much more widespread than is typical for the large industrialized economies. The East Asian firms are most exposed to fluctuations in the U.S. dollar, though the mark and yen are important in a few countries. The extent of exchange rate exposure has varied over the last decade, but it does not appear to have diminished. The most widespread exchange rate sensitivity (not just the most exchange rate fluctuation) occurred during the Asian Crisis period; this is evident even after accounting for the local macroeconomic conditions that affect aggregate local returns. Finally, the East Asian evidence examined here provides no support for the idea that an exchange rate peg reduces foreign exchange exposure.

Evaluating Exchange Rate Management An Application to Korea

This paper uses data-rich estimation techniques to study monetary policy in an open economy. We apply the techniques to a small, forward-looking model and explore the importance of the exchange rate in the monetary policy rule. This approach allows us to discern whether a monetary authority targets the exchange rate per se, or instead simply responds to the exchange rate in order to achieve its other objectives. The approach also removes a downward bias on the estimate of the extent of inflation targeting. We find that this bias is important in the case of Korea, a de jure inflation targeter. In contrast to previous studies, our findings suggest that the Bank of Korea actively targets inflation, not the exchange rate. Apparently, the exchange rate has been only indirectly important in Korea's monetary policy.Exchange Rates, Exchange Rate Management, Monetary Policy Rule, Inflation Targeting, Exchange Rate Regimes, Exchange Rate Classification, Factor Instrumental Variables

Aggregate Price Changes and Dispersion: A Comparison of the Equity and Goods and Services Markets

Many existing studies have found a correlation between inflation and price dispersion in goods markets. In this paper, we document that a similar correlation can be found in equity markets. We estimate the correlation between overall price changes and dispersion in the NYSE and in the NASDAQ. Using quarterly data from 1975 to 1999, we compare the stock market correlations with those of goods markets. We find striking correlations in both sets of markets. The most prominent explanations of the goods market correlation (such as menu costs) cannot plausibly apply to equity markets. Thus, our findings indicate that the correlation appears to be more widespread than can be accounted for by the usual explanations.