Pricing in International Markets: a 'Small-Country' Benchmark

This study examines export pricing to market (PTM) in a ‘small-country’ context using a panel of disaggregated exports from Hong Kong since 1992. Conventional wisdom is that PTM is commonplace – except for U.S. exports. This study provides a benchmark by which to interpret the puzzling behavior of U.S. export prices. Empirically, Hong Kong’s export price behavior is comparable to that from the U.S. This similarity reinforces the idea that PTM behavior is also a function of home market conditions and the ability to price discriminate across markets. There is little evidence of differences in PTM across Hong Kong’s export destinations.pricing to market, small-country

Exchange Rate Pegs and Foreign Exchange Exposure in East Asia

This paper shows that many East Asian firms are significantly exposed to foreign exchange risk. Their exposure appears to be much more widespread than is typical for the large, western industrialized economies. The paper also shows that exchange rate pegs appear to do little to alleviate this widespread exposure against currencies other than the peg. The East Asian firms studied here are most exposed to fluctuations in the U.S. dollar, and the mark and yen are important in a few countries. The extent of their exchange rate exposure has varied, but not diminished, over the last decade. The most widespread exchange rate sensitivity (not just the most exchange rate fluctuation) occurred during the Asian Crisis period; this is evident even after accounting for the local macroeconomic conditions that affect aggregate local returns.foreign exchange exposure, exchange rate pegs, east asia

Japan's trade surplus

Japan ; International trade - Japan

INFLATION AND PRICE DISPERSION IN EQUITY MARKETS AND IN GOODS AND SERVICES MARKETS

An empirical link between inflation and price dispersion has been well established in goods and services markets – both across time periods and across countries. However, the economic interpretation of this link has been typically frustrated by the observational equivalence of the predictions of the prominent theories. This prompts us to take a new approach. Specifically, we examine the link between inflation and price dispersion in an empirical setting patently lacking the market characteristics central to these theories (i.e., menu costs, or relative/aggregate confusion). In particular, we benchmark the inflation-dispersion link in goods and services markets with a matched panel of equity market prices. Surprisingly, we find that a link – comparable to that found in markets for goods and services – does exist in the equity market. Moreover, we find that our results are not due to a potentially important, but generally overlooked, bias that is present in many existing studies. Our results suggest that the debate over the factors responsible for the inflation/price dispersion link should be broadened to account for the asset market links we document.relative price variability, stock markets, goods markets, inflation

In Search of a Euro Effect: Big Lessons from a Big Mac Meal?

We investigate whether the adoption of the euro was accompanied by an increase in prices in member countries, and whether it promoted goods market arbitrage in the form of faster convergence to a common price. By comparing the experience of eurozone countries to non-euro European countries in a ‘difference-in-differences’ specification we net out effects on prices unrelated to the euro. We conclude that (a) there is no evidence of significant price increases associated with the adoption of the euro even for food items; and (b) there is little systematic evidence of a significant improvement in goods market integration following the euro’s introduction.

The Micro-foundations of Big Mac Real Exchange Rates

The real exchange rate is said to be the single most important price in an economy. While we used to think that we knew what explained its movements (e.g., the Balassa-Samuelson effect), the recent much-cited result by Engel (1999) proposes a serious reinterpretation – i.e., nearly 100% of the movements in the U.S. real exchange rate are explained by deviations from the law of one price. Engel’s finding holds even in the medium run, when movements in the relative price of non-tradables between countries, were thought to be of paramount importance. In this project, we study the movement of real exchange rates based on the prices of Big Macs (which we show are highly correlated with the CPIbased real exchange rates). Our main innovation is to match these prices to the prices of individual ingredients (ground beef, bread, lettuce, labor cost, rent, etc.) in 34 countries during 1990–2002. There are a number of advantages associated with our approach. First, unlike the CPI real exchange rate, we can measure the Big Mac real exchange rate in levels in an economically meaningful way. Second, unlike the CPI real exchange rate for which the attribution to tradable and non-tradable components involves assumptions on the weights and the functional form, we (almost) know the exact composition of a Big Mac, and can estimate the tradable and non-tradable components relatively precisely. Third, we can study the dynamics of the real exchange rate in a setting that is free of the productaggregation bias (argued by Imbs, Mumtaz, Ravn, and Rey, 2002, to be important in studies on CPI real exchange rates), the temporal aggregation bias (argued to be important by Taylor, 2001), or the bias generated by non-compatible consumption baskets across countries. Fourth, we show that Engel's result that deviation from the law of one price is all that matters does not hold generally. Furthermore, deviations from his result can be systematically explained.Real exchange rates; TAR models

Border, Border, Wide and Far, How We Wonder What You Are

This paper exploits a three-dimensional panel data set of prices on 27 traded goods, over 88 quarters, across 96 cities in the U.S. and Japan. We present evidence that the distribution of intra-national real exchange rates is substantially less volatile and on average closer to zero, than the comparable distribution for international relative prices. We also show that an equally-weighted average of good-level real exchange rates tracks the nominal exchange rate well, suggesting strong evidence of sticky prices. We turn next to economic explanations for the dynamics of this so-called "Border" effect. Focusing on dispersion in prices between city pairs, we confirm previous findings that crossing national borders adds significantly to price dispersion. Using our point estimates crossing the U.S.-Japan "Border" is equivalent to adding between 2.5 and 13 million miles to the cross-country volatility of relative prices. We make a direct and explicit inference on the influence of shipping costs, distance, exchange rate and relative wage variability on the "Border" effect. In our calculations, the "Border" effect disappears after controlling for these additional variables.

Insignificant and Inconsequential Hysteresis: The Case of the U.S. Bilateral Trade

This paper casts doubt on the validity of the hysteresis hypothesis as an explanation of the persistent U.S. trade deficits in the 1980s. We propose two tests to investigate two different implications of the hypothesis. The first implication is that cumulative changes in exchange rates, in addition to current exchange rate levels, are important determinants of trade flows. The second implication is that foreign exporting firms' perceptions of exchange rate volatility will affect their decisions to enter or exit the market. We find little support for either aspect of the hysteresis hypothesis.

REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF FACTORS IMPACTING PROBLEM SOLVING ENGAGEMENT WITHIN LEAN SYSTEMS IMPLEMENTATION

Organizations around the world have attempted to implement the concepts of the Toyota Production System (TPS), commonly referred to as Lean, with limited sustainable success. The central principles of TPS, continuous improvement and respect for people, are grounded in the Japanese values of Monozukuri and Hitozukuri. Monozukuri deals with creating or making a product, while Hitozukuri conveys the idea of developing people through learning. In order for organizations to adopt these values they must have a system that engages employees at all levels in applying problem solving to improve their work. This research uses organizational assessments obtained from a variety of organizations implementing the lean approach using the Monozukuri and Hitozukuri values, referred to as the True Lean System (TLS). This research uses an inductive research approach to identify and analyze factors that impact the use of problem solving within organizations implementing a TLS. First, the qualitative assessment data is studied using textual analysis to identify themes impacting TLS. This analysis identified three topics as the highest weighted themes: number of problem solving methods, standardization, and employee roles. This qualitative data is then transformed using an integrated design model to systematically code the information into quantitative numerical data. Finally, this data was analyzed statistically by logistic regression to identify the factors impacting the use of problem solving within these organizations. The results from the logistic regression suggest that the most successful problem solving organizations have established standards for work and training employees; as well as, a single problem solving method that all employees use when identifying and implementing continuous improvement ideas. Which leads to the conclusion, in order for an organization to sustain the concepts of TPS, there must be a focus on defining clear standardized work, training, and the implementation of a single problem solving method

GDP Synchronicity and Risk Sharing Channels in a Monetary Union: Blue State and Red States

We examine state GDP comovement and consumption risk-sharing channels within the United States as a whole, and among states whose populations have voted consistently Democrat (Blue) or Republican (Red) in national elections. We document three facts: (1) state GDP growth is asynchronous, and Blue and Red states are particularly out of sync; (2) at the same time, interstate consumption risk-sharing is very high{it is high even across the political divide, and it is high even where the role of fiscal flows is minimal; and (3) the channels of risk sharing across Blue, Red, and Swing states are quite different