Accounting for Growth in Post-Soviet Russia

In pursuit of its transition from a command to a market economy, post-Soviet Russia has witnessed enormous regional differences in economic growth rates. Moreover, the economic reforms implemented under this transition, while initiated at the federal level, have also differed markedly across regions, as regional governments have had considerable discretion over the implementation of reform policies in their jurisdictions. We exploit these differences in analyzing whether regional differences in reform policies can account for regional differences in growth rates, and conclude that to a considerable degree, they can. Most notably, we find that local-government privatization initiatives and regional-government initiatives to gain control over their capital stock (e.g. plants, equipment, machinery and social infrastructure) exhibit close correspondence with the formation of new legal enterprises, which in turn exhibits close correspondence with economic growth.optimal taxation, tax evasion, organized crime

The Evolution of Market Integration in Russia

We use a statistical model of commodity trade to measure the extent of integration between regional commodity markets within Russia. Monthly time-series data on regional commodity prices spanning 1994 through 1999 indicate substantial temporal fluctuations in integration over this period: an initial period of widespread integration gradually gave way to a period of disconnectedness in 1995 through 1997, which seems to have subsided by mid-1998. These temporal fluctuations exhibit strong statistical relationships with a host of aggregate variables; most notably, internal integration exhibits a strong negative relationship with international trade.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39718/3/wp334.pd

Integration: An Empirical Assessment of Russia

In the process of implementing market reforms, many post-socialist countries have struggled to preserve economic and political integration. Using a statistical model of commodity trade, we quantify the evolution of economic integration observed among regions within Russia during 1995-1999, and then explore potential determinants of the patterns of integration we observe. Our measure of integration exhibits rich regional variation that, when aggregated to the national level, fluctuates substantially over time. In seeking to account for this behavior, we draw in part on theoretical models that emphasize the potential role of openness to international trade, regional disparities in income, and inflation volatility in threatening economic and political integration. Controlling for a host of additional regional- and national-level variables, we find a strong negative correspondence between openness to international trade and internal economic integration within Russia. We also find negative links but weaker links between integration and regional-income disparities and inflation volatility.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39873/3/wp488.pd

Entrepreneurship and Post-Socialist Growth

A growing body of national-level survey evidence indicates that small-scale entrepreneurial activity has been an important engine of growth in post-socialist economies. Here we use a rich regional data set to obtain a statistical characterization of the relationship between entrepreneurial activity and economic growth within post-Soviet Russia. Russia is a useful laboratory for evaluating links between entrepreneurial activity and growth because of the striking variation in initial conditions, the adoption of policy reforms, and entrepreneurial activity observed across its large number of regions in the early stages of transition. Russia has also experienced striking regional variation in subsequent growth. Conditional on variations in initial conditions and policy reform measures, we find that regional entrepreneurial activity exhibits a strong and enduring relationship with subsequent growth.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39790/3/wp406.pd

Policy Reform and Growth in Post-Soviet Russia

In pursuit of its transition from a command to a market economy, Russia has witnessed enormous regional differences in economic growth rates. Moreover, the implementation of economic reforms has also differed markedly across regions. We analyze whether regional differences in reform policies can account for regional differences in growth rates, and conclude that to a considerable degree, they can. Most notably, we find that regional differences in price liberalization policies exhibit a positive direct correspondence with growth. We also find that regional differences in large-scale privatization exhibit a positive correspondence with the regional formation of new legal enterprises, which in turn exhibits a strong positive correspondence with growth.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39789/3/wp405.pd

The Evolution of Market Integration in Russia

We use a statistical model of commodity trade to measure the extent of integration between regional commodity markets within Russia. Monthly time-series data on regional commodity prices spanning 1994 through 1999 indicate substantial temporal fluctuations in integration over this period: an initial period of widespread integration gradually gave way to a period of disconnectedness in 1995 through 1997, which seems to have subsided by mid-1998. These temporal fluctuations exhibit strong statistical relationships with a host of aggregate variables; most notably, internal integration exhibits a strong negative relationship with international trade.internal borders, temporal fluctuations

Integration: An Empirical Assessment of Russia

In the process of implementing market reforms, many post-socialist countries have struggled to preserve economic and political integration. Using a statistical model of commodity trade, we quantify the evolution of economic integration observed among regions within Russia during 1995-1999, and then explore potential determinants of the patterns of integration we observe. Our measure of integration exhibits rich regional variation that, when aggregated to the national level, fluctuates substantially over time. In seeking to account for this behavior, we draw in part on theoretical models that emphasize the potential role of openness to international trade, regional disparities in income, and inflation volatility in threatening economic and political integration. Controlling for a host of additional regional- and national-level variables, we find a strong negative correspondence between openness to international trade and internal economic integration within Russia. We also find negative links but weaker links between integration and regional-income disparities and inflation volatility.openness to international trade, regional income disparities, inflation volatility, economic, political integration

Structural Macroeconometrics

Methodologies for analyzing the forces that move and shape national economies have advanced markedly in the last thirty years, enabling economists as never before to unite theoretical and empirical research and align measurement with theory. In Structural Macroeconometrics , David DeJong and Chetan Dave provide the unified overview and in-depth treatment analysts need to apply these latest theoretical models and empirical techniques. The authors' emphasis throughout is on time series econometrics. DeJong and Dave detail methods available for solving dynamic structural models and casting solutions in the form of statistical models with empirical implications that may be analyzed either analytically or numerically. They present the full range of methodologies for characterizing and evaluating these empirical implications, including calibration exercises, method-of-moment procedures, and likelihood-based procedures, both classical and Bayesian. The book is complete with a rich array of implementation algorithms, sample empirical applications, and supporting computer code. Structural Macroeconometrics is tailored specifically to equip readers with a set of practical tools that can be used to expedite their entry into the field. DeJong and Dave's uniquely accessible, how-to approach makes this the ideal textbook for graduate students seeking an introduction to macroeconomics and econometrics and for advanced students pursuing applied research in macroeconomics. The book's historical perspective, along with its broad presentation of alternative methodologies, makes it an indispensable resource for academics and professionals.methodologies, research, measurement, theory, analysis, models, empirical, technique, statistical, computer, numerical

Exploiting Non-Linearities in GDP Growth for Forecasting and Anticipating Regime Changes

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Accounting for Growth in Post-Soviet Russia

In pursuit of its transition from a command to a market economy, post-Soviet Russia has witnessed enormous regional differences in economic growth rates. Moreover, the economic reforms implemented under this transition, while initiated at the federal level, have also differed markedly across regions, as regional governments have had considerable discretion over the implementation of reform policies in their jurisdictions. We exploit these differences in analyzing whether regional differences in reform policies can account for regional differences in growth rates, and conclude that to a considerable degree, they can. Most notably, we find that local-government privatization initiatives and regional-government initiatives to gain control over their capital stock (e.g. plants, equipment, machinery and social infrastructure) exhibit close correspondence with the formation of new legal enterprises, which in turn exhibits close correspondence with economic growth.