What next? Rewilding as a radical future for the British countryside

Rewilding is an optimistic environmental agenda to reverse the loss of biodiversity and reconnect society with nature. This chapter explores Britain’s ecological history, back to the Last Interglacial before the arrival of modern humans, when the climate was similar to today, to analyse how conservationists can learn from the past to rewild the ecosystems of the present and prepare for an uncertain future. Because there is no single point in history that should or could be recreated, rewilding focuses on re-establishing naturally dynamic ecological processes that, through an appropriate sequence of species reintroductions, attempts to move the ecosystem towards a more appropriately biodiverse and functional state. A state that is self-sustaining in the present climate, and that projected for the near future. Specifically, this chapter explores a rewilding solution to conservation challenges associated with over-grazing, limited germination niche availability, and river dynamics: the reintroduction of wolves, wild boar, and beaver respectively. This sequence of reintroductions is suggested to be complimentary, each altering ecosystem dynamics to facilitate the return of the next. Evidence indicates wolves will reduce deer abundance and re-distribute browsing intensity promoting tree regeneration, particularly in riparian areas, increasing woodland availability to the more habitat-dependent wild boar and beaver. An important message behind rewilding is that a rich biodiversity with all guilds well represented, including the ones that polarize public opinion, such as large predators, are important components of ecosystem service rich and self-sustaining ecosystems, particularly in core areas

Interventions targeted at primary care practitioners to improve the identification and referral of patients with co-morbid obesity: a realist review protocol

<b>Background </b>Obesity is one of the most significant public health challenges in the developed world. Recent policy has suggested that more can be done in primary care to support adults with obesity. In particular, general practitioners (GPs) and practice nurses (PNs) could improve the identification and referral of adults with obesity to appropriate weight management services. Previous interventions targeted at primary care practitioners in this area have had mixed results, suggesting a more complex interplay between patients, practitioners, and systems. The objectives of this review are (i) to identify the underlying ‘programme theory’ of interventions targeted at primary care practitioners to improve the identification and referral of adults with obesity and (ii) to explore how and why GPs and PNs identify and refer individuals with obesity, particularly in the context of weight-related co-morbidity. This protocol will explain the rationale for using a realist review approach and outline the key steps in this process. <p></p> <b>Methods</b> Realist review is a theory-led approach to knowledge synthesis that provides an explanatory analysis aimed at discerning what works, for whom, in what circumstances, how, and why. In this review, scoping interviews with key stakeholders involved in the planning and delivery of adult weight management services in Scotland helped to inform the identification of formal theories - from psychology, sociology, and implementation science - that will be tested as the review progresses. A comprehensive search strategy is described, including scope for iterative searching. Data analysis is outlined in three stages (describing context-mechanism-outcome configurations, exploring patterns in these configurations, and developing and testing middle-range theories, informed by the formal theories previously identified), culminating in the production of explanatory programme theory that considers individual, interpersonal, and institutional/systems-level components. <p></p> <b>Discussion </b>This is the first realist review that we are aware of looking at interventions targeted at primary care practitioners to improve the weight management of adults with obesity. Engagement with stakeholders at an early stage is a unique feature of realist review. This shapes the scope of the review, identification of candidate theories and dissemination strategies. The findings of this review will inform policy and future interventions. Systematic review registration PROSPERO CRD4201400939

The role of primary care in adult weight management: qualitative interviews with key stakeholders in weight management services

Background: Primary care has a key role to play in the prevention and management of obesity, but there remain barriers to engagement in weight management by primary care practitioners. The aim of this study was to explore the views of key stakeholders in adult weight management services on the role of primary care in adult weight management. Methods: Qualitative study involving semi-structured interviews with nine senior dietitians involved in NHS weight management from seven Scottish health boards. Transcripts were analysed using an inductive thematic approach. Results: A range of tensions were apparent within three key themes: weight management service issues, the role of primary care, and communication with primary care. For weight management services, these tensions were around funding, the management model of obesity, and how to configure access to services. For primary care, they were around what primary care should be doing, who should be doing it, and where this activity should fit within wider weight management policy. With regard to communication between weight management services and primary care, there were tensions related to the approach taken (locally adapted versus centralised), the message being communicated (weight loss versus wellbeing), and the response from practitioners (engagement versus resistance). Conclusions: Primary care can do more to support adult weight management, but this requires better engagement and communication with weight management services, to overcome the tensions highlighted in this study. This, in turn, requires more secure, sustained funding. The example of smoking cessation in the UK, where there is a network of well-resourced NHS Stop Smoking Services, accessible via different means, could be a model to follow

Globalizing the Holocaust: A Jewish “Useable Past” in Serbian Nationalism

Contrary to Anthony Smith’s view that national myth-makers derive meaning primarily from a nation’s own positive “useable past”, this article argues that the globalization and universalisation of the Jewish Holocaust has created new poles of identity for ethno-nationalists, existing outside “authentic” local conceptions of history and culture. Also contrary to Smith’s view of a positive Golden Age at the root of national mythology, I argue that negative imagery can play an equally if not more significant role in some examples of nationalism. In Serbia, viewing the self through the lens of a persecuted victim became crucial during the disintegration of Yugoslavia in the 1990s. As a new “strategic site”, the Holocaust functioned as a template for re-interpreting “self” and “other”, while re-ordering history. Kosovar Albanians, Croatians and Bosnian Moslems were all targeted in this reappraisal of Serbian history

Jobless Recoveries

Historically, when an economy emerges from recession, employment grows with, or soon after, the resumption of GDP growth. However, following the two most recent recessions in the United States, employment growth has lagged the recovery in GDP by several quarters, a phenomenon thathas been termed the 'jobless recovery.' To many, a jobless recovery defies explanation since it violates both historical patterns and the predictions of traditional macro theory. We show that a recession followed by a jobless recovery is precisely what neoclassical theory predicts when new technology impacts different sectors of the economy unevenly and is slow to diffuse, and sectoral adjustments in the labor market take time to unfold.

What Can we Learn from our Mistakes? Evaluating the Benefits of Correcting Inefficiencies in USDA Cotton Forecasts.

This study investigated the magnitude of forecast improvements resulting from correction of inefficiencies in USDA cotton forecasts over 1999/00 to 2008/09 marketing years. The aspects of forecast performance included in this study were 1) bias and trends in bias, 2) correlation between forecast error and forecast level, 3) autocorrelation in forecast errors, 4) correlation in forecast revisions. Overall the results of this study demonstrated that some corrections of forecast inefficiencies, such as correction of correlation of error with forecast levels and correlation of error with previous year’s error resulted in consistent improvement of USDA cotton forecasts, while correction for correlation in forecast revisions did not benefit the forecasts. Correction for bias yielded mixed results likely because USDA has already been applying those corrections to some of the categories and thus our analysis resulted in over-correcting. The framework developed in this study can be used by USDA and other agencies to monitor and improve the performance of their forecasts.Commodity, Forecast evaluation, Fixed-event forecasts, Government forecasting, Forecast improvement, Agribusiness, Demand and Price Analysis, E37, E3, Q13,