Russian Financial Transition: The Development of Institutions and Markets for Growth

A well-developed financial intermediation industry increases domestic savings, efficiently allocates investment resources to the most productive uses in the economy and increases the rate of economic growth. In the Soviet economy the banking system served as a means of collecting household savings and a means of distributing centrally determined capital grants to enterprises. Banks then audited enterprise financial activities to ensure compliance to the financial plan. After a decade the transition from the Soviet banking system to a market oriented banking system is incomplete and fraught with uncertainty. While the number of financial institutions has increased dramatically, the state sector still dominates financial sector activity, the legal and regulatory framework is incomplete, information necessary for risk management is of poor quality and policy makers and regulators have been slow to act to improve intermediation services. While significant progress has been made, the commonly recognized characteristics of a sound financial system are not yet met.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39839/3/wp455.pd

Real Exchange Rate Misalignment: Prelude to Crisis?

A model of the long run equilibrium real exchange rate based upon macroeconomic fundamentals is employed to calculate real exchange rate misalignments for Poland and Russia during the 1990s using the Beveridge and Nelson (1981) decomposition of macrofundamentals into transitory and permanent components. Short run movements of the real exchange rate are estimated with ARIMA and GARCH error correction specifications. The different nominal exchange rate regimes of the two countries generate different levels of misalignment and different responses to exogenous shocks. The average misalignment in Russia is substantially greater than that in Poland, indicating incipient pressures to devalue the ruble immediately preceding the August 1998 crisis. The half life of an exogenous shock is found to be much shorter for Poland than for Russia in the pre-crisis period. Dynamic forecasts indicate that the movements of the real exchange rate in the post-crisis period are significantly different from those in the pre-crisis period. Thus, the currency crisis in Russia could not be anticipated with the movements of the real exchange rate estimated with the macroeconomic fundamentals.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/40183/3/wp797.pd

Real Exchange Rate Misalignment: Prelude to Crisis?

A model of the long run equilibrium real exchange rate based upon macroeconomic fundamentals is employed to calculate real exchange rate misalignments for Poland and Russia during the 1990s using the Beveridge and Nelson (1981) decomposition of macrofundamentals into transitory and permanent components. Short run movements of the real exchange rate are estimated with ARIMA and GARCH error correction specifications. The different nominal exchange rate regimes of the two countries generate different levels of misalignment and different responses to exogenous shocks. The average misalignment in Russia is substantially greater than that in Poland, indicating incipient pressures to devalue the ruble immediately preceding the August 1998 crisis. The half life of an exogenous shock is found to be much shorter for Poland than for Russia in the pre-crisis period. Dynamic forecasts indicate that the movements of the real exchange rate in the post-crisis period are significantly different from those in the pre-crisis period. Thus, the currency crisis in Russia could not be anticipated with the movements of the real exchange rate estimated with the macroeconomic fundamentals.Russia, Poland, equilibrium real exchange rates, misalignment, cointegration, exogenous shocks, macroeconomic crises

Yuan Real Exchange Rate Undervaluation, 1997-2006. How Much, How Often? Not Much, Not Often

Yuan real effective exchange rate misalignment is esitimated in a behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) model for the period 1997 to third quarter 2007. Using the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition a vector error correction model (VECM) of the exchange rate as a function of macroeconomic fundamentals, including government expenditures, economic openness, the balance of trade surplus, and net foreign assets, is estimated. We find that the Chinese Yuan has been fluctuating moderately around its long run equilibrium value with undervaluation up to 4% and overvaluation up to 6% at various points in time since 1997. This result is consistent with findings of many of the most recent studies employing alternative econometric methodologies to determine the equilibrium exchange rate. While the Yuan real effective exchange rate has deviated from equilibrium, and it is sticky, taking over five years to correct 50% of the short run misalignment, it does not appear to have been consistently undervalued as has been widely argued.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/64348/1/wp934.pd

Remotely Interrogated Passive Polarizing Dosimeter (RIPPeD).

Conductive polymers have become an extremely useful class of materials for many optical applications. We have developed an electrochemical growth method for depositing highly conductive ({approx}100 S/cm) polypyrrole. Additionally, we have adapted advanced fabrication methods for use with the polypyrrole resulting in gratings with submicron features. This conductive polymer micro-wire grid provides an optical polarizer with unique properties. When the polymer is exposed to ionizing radiation, its conductivity is affected and the polarization properties of the device, specifically the extinction ratio, change in a corresponding manner. This change in polarization properties can be determined by optically interrogating the device, possibly from a remote location. The result is a passive radiation-sensitive sensor with very low optical visibility. The ability to interrogate the device from a safe standoff distance provides a device useful in potentially dangerous environments. Also, the passive nature of the device make it applicable in applications where external power is not available. We will review the polymer deposition, fabrication methods and device design and modeling. The characterization of the polymer's sensitivity to ionizing radiation and optical testing of infrared polarizers before and after irradiation will also be presented. These experimental results will highlight the usefulness of the conductive infrared polarizer to many security and monitoring applications

Genome-wide association analysis of eosinophilic esophagitis provides insight into the tissue specificity of this allergic disease

Eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE) is a chronic inflammatory disorder associated with allergic hypersensitivity to food. We interrogated >1.5 million genetic variants in European EoE cases and subsequently in a multi-site cohort with local and out-of-study control subjects. In addition to replication of the 5q22 locus (meta-analysis p = 1.9×10−16), we identified association at 2p23 (encoding CAPN14, p = 2.5×10−10). CAPN14 was specifically expressed in the esophagus, dynamically upregulated as a function of disease activity and genetic haplotype and after exposure of epithelial cells to IL-13, and located in an epigenetic hotspot modified by IL-13. There was enriched esophageal expression for the genes neighboring the top 208 EoE sequence variants. Multiple allergic sensitization loci were associated with EoE susceptibility (4.8×10−2 < p < 5.1×10−11). We propose a model that elucidates the tissue specific nature of EoE that involves the interplay of allergic sensitization with an EoE-specific, IL-13–inducible esophageal response involving CAPN14

Microeconomic efficiency in the Polish enterprise during the NEM period

Microeconomic efficiency in the Polish enterprise has been an important aspect of nearly all economic reforms in Poland. This paper develops a model of a hypothetical Polish enterprise during the NEM period. The enterprise is viewed as maximizing an objective function which is a linear combination of production added and profits within a short run planning period. The optimality conditions for factor usage are derived and compared with the efficient (profit maximizing) firm. It is found that an increase in the emphasis on production added in the evaluation of enterprise performance (in an attempt by central planners to increase output) may yield results contrary to the central planners\u27 desires. Output will actually fall unless enterprises receive a higher level of subsidies. A brief discussion of the institutional characteristics unique to the Polish economic system is presented as well. © 1982 Kluwer Academic Publishers