Alternatives to Liberal Constitutional Democracy

The global appeal of liberal constitutional democracy—defined as a competitive multiparty system combined with governance within constitutional limits—cannot be taken for granted due to the existence of competing forms of government that appear successful along a number of practical dimensions and consequently enjoy high levels of public acceptance. Proponents of liberal constitutional democracy must be prepared to proactively explain and defend its capacity to satisfy first-order political needs. A system of government is unlikely to command popular acceptance unless it can plausibly claim to address the problems of oppression, tribalism, and physical and economic security. Along these dimensions, the advantages of liberal constitutional democracy over the alternatives of social democracy of the type seen in Scandinavia, and bureaucratic authoritarianism of the type seen in parts of Asia, are not self-evident. Within Asia alone, seemingly functional alternatives to liberal constitutional democracy run the gamut from illiberal nondemocracy in China, to liberal one-party rule in Japan, to illiberal constitutional democracy in Singapore, to liberal constitutional nondemocracy in Hong Kong, to hereditary monarchy in Bhutan

Betting on odds on Favorites as an Optimal Choice in Cumulative Prospect Theory

It is well known that the parametric version of Cumulative Prospect theory (CPT) proposed by Kahneman and Tversky (1979) and Tversky and Kahneman (1992) (KT) can explain gambling at actuarially unfair odds on long shots due to the over weighting of small probabilities. However betting on odds favorites appears problematic. We demonstrate using a parametric model of Cumulative Prospect Theory that nests that of Kahneman and Tversky that if agents are risk averse enough over gains and risk-seeking enough over losses then they will gamble on odds on chances at actuarially unfair odds even when there is no probability distortion. This previously unappreciated fact is interesting since many experimental results suggest that some respondents are very risk averse over gains.

New Zealand’s Diaspora and Overseas-born Population

Many New Zealand-born people migrate overseas, creating a diaspora, and many overseas-born people migrate to New Zealand. Both the diaspora and the overseas-born population in New Zealand may facilitate the international exchange of goods and ideas. Much discussion of international linkages has, however, been limited by a lack of data on numbers of people involved. Based mainly on place-of-birth data from national censuses, this paper provides estimates of the size and structure of New Zealand’s diaspora and overseas-born population, as well as comparisons with selected OECD countries such as Australia. A tentative conclusion is that the potential contribution of New Zealand’s diaspora may have been overestimated, and the contribution of the overseas-born population underestimated.International migration; diaspora; measurement; New Zealand; Australia; population; emigration; immigration

The Contributions from Firm Entry, Exit and Continuation to Labour Productivity Growth in New Zealand

This paper evaluates the contributions from firm entry, exit and continuation to labour productivity growth in New Zealand over the period 1995 to 2003. Decomposition techniques developed by Griliches and Regev (1995) and by Foster, Haltiwanger and Krizan (1998) are employed. Results suggest significant heterogeneity across both industries and firms. Most entering firms’ initial level of labour productivity is below the industry average but grows rapidly thereafter. Continuing firms generally add to industry labour productivity growth. On average exiting firms experience stagnant or declining labour productivity in the years leading up to their death, and when they eventually die most have below average labour productivity compared to their industry. This pattern persists even at a highly disaggregated industry level and indicates that firm turnover has positively contributed to labour productivity growth in New Zealand.Firm Performance; Entry; Exit; Turnover; Mobility; Labour Productivity; New Zealand

Toward a Model of Firm Productivity Dynamics

A common finding from international research on firm productivity dynamics is that withinfirm productivity dynamics tend to dominate the effects of firm entry and exit on aggregate productivity. The aim of this paper is to explore the suitability of Statistics New Zealand’s Business Demography (BD) and Goods and Services Tax (GST) data as a basis for modelling within-firm productivity dynamics. The paper first analyses and describes the cross-sectional and time-series properties of sales, purchases and a value-added measure of labour productivity. Cross-sectional results reveal a great deal of heterogeneity in average sales, purchases and labour productivity both across and within industries and cohorts. Univariate time-series properties of these variables are remarkably similar and sales and purchases are highly correlated contemporaneously. Transition probabilities are also calculated for movement of firms between quartiles of the labour productivity distribution over varying lengths of time. In order to understand the processes driving the data, a simple statistical model for sales, purchases and value-added per unit of employment is developed to calibrate to the stylised empirical facts. The model does a remarkably good job at mimicking the properties of the BD and GST data.Firm Productivity; Labour Productivity; Firm Dynamics; New Zealand GST Data; New Zealand Business Demography; Firm Value-added.

Cumulative prospect theory and gambling

Whilst Cumulative Prospect theory (CPT) provides an explanation of gambling on longshots at actuarially unfair odds, it cannot explain why people might bet on more favoured outcomes. This paper shows that this is explicable if the degree of loss aversion experienced by the agent is reduced for small-stake gambles (as a proportion of wealth), and probability distortions are greater over losses than gains. If the utility or value function is assumed to be bounded, the degree of loss aversion assumed by Kahneman and Tversky leads to absurd predictions, reminiscent of those pointed out by Rabin (2000), of refusal to accept infinite gain bets at low probabilities. Boundedness of the value function in CPT implies that the indifference curve between expected-return and win-probability will typically exhibit both an asymptote (implying rejection of an infinite gain bet) and a minimum at low probabilities, as the shape of the value function dominates the probability weighting function. Also the high probability section of the indifference curve will exhibit a maximum. These implications are consistent with outcomes observed in gambling markets.

Trade and Migration to New Zealand

This paper examines the hypothesis that a greater stock of migrants in New Zealand from a particular country leads to more trade between that country and New Zealand. The literature suggests that migrants can stimulate trade by lowering transaction costs, and by bringing with them preferences for goods produced in their home country. We use panel data techniques within the framework of a standard gravity model of trade. Our sample includes an average of over 170 countries for the years 1981 to 2001. Previous studies of trade and migration have not dealt satisfactorily with problems of unobserved heterogeneity and selection bias. We address these problems using correlated random effects and selection models. Results suggest that larger migrant stocks are associated with higher trade flows.

Trade, diaspora and migration to New Zealand

NZIER has always had a strong interest in understanding the way in which the New Zealand economy interacts with the rest of the world. We have a long history of producing research into trade liberalisation and globalisation. As the global economy becomes ever more complex, we are now turning our attention to issues such as services, investment, technology transfer and the role of people movement in promoting economic growth and productivity. NZIER is delighted to continue this tradition by funding this important and innovative piece of research by David Law, Murat Gen and John Bryant into the links between trade flows and the movement of people across borders. This research was funded by NZIER in celebration of our 50th Anniversary in 2008. During this very challenging period for the global economy, there has been a tendency for policy makers to implement inwards-focused policies aimed to protecting domestic jobs and promoting domestic economic activity. Such policies are politically popular, but can be economically inefficient and often come at the expense of deeper economic integration between countries. One particularly topical area of policy discussion is the role of immigration in promoting economic growth. New Zealand has long been reliant on immigration to boost its population and to fill gaps in the labour market. And many Kiwis love to travel overseas to gain life and work experience. Given these continual inflows and outflows, it is interesting to consider how people movements might affect the New Zealands exports and imports of goods and services, and thus how immigration policy might be used as a policy lever to boost our international linkages. The paper uses empirical techniques to investigate the links between trade, migration and New Zealands diaspora. It clearly shows that inwards and outwards migration has a positive effect on goods and tourism trade. This suggests that policy makers could design immigration policy with these links in mind in order to maximise the economic potential of migrants. If trade follows migration flows, then an important avenue for boosting New Zealands integration with the global economy may be encouraging migrants from important trading partners.Diaspora, trade, Migration, New Zealand, economic growth