Export Restraints on Russian Natural Gas and Raw Timber: What are the Economic Impacts?

The paper explains that the Russian gas giant, Gazprom, has failed to invest adequately, resulting in very little development of new gas supplies in Russia. The result has been progressively increasing use by Gazprom of central Asian gas supplies, at progressively higher prices for Russia. The increased prices of gas for Russian consumers have shown that it is crucial for Russian welfare to allow new entrants, and to introduce competition in the Russian domestic market. Competition among multiple gas suppliers from Russia, however, would erode or eliminate the monopoly profits of the Russian Federation on gas exports. Thus, with a more competitive domestic market, the Russian government would be expected to grant exclusive exporting rights to a single entity (as it presently does with Gazprom) or impose export taxes. Thus, Europe should not expect to achieve cheaper Russian gas as a result of structural reforms within the Russian gas market. More promising avenues for European energy diversification are new pipeline construction to open up new sources of supply independent of Russia (especially the Nabucco pipeline) and liquefied natural gas purchases. *

Export restraints on russian natural gas and raw timber : what are the economic impacts ?

Export restraints by the Russian Federation on natural gas and timber have been the source of major controversy between the European Union and the Russian Federation. The analysis of this paper suggests that the export restraints in natural gas very substantially benefit Russia. On the other hand, in raw timber the analysis suggests that a substantial reduction of Russian export taxes would increase Russian welfare. The paper explains that Gazprom has failed to invest adequately, resulting in little development of new gas supplies. The result has been progressively increasing use by Gazprom of Central Asian gas supplies, at progressively higher prices for Russia. The increased prices of gas for Russian consumers have shown that it is crucial for Russia to allow new entrants and to introduce competition in the Russian domestic market. Without export restraints, however, competition among multiple gas suppliers from Russia would erode or eliminate the monopoly profits of the Russian Federation on gas exports. Thus, with a more competitive domestic market, the Russian government would be expected to grant exclusive exporting rights to a single entity (as it presently does with Gazprom) or impose export taxes. Thus, Europe should not expect to achieve cheaper Russian gas as a result of structural reforms within the Russian gas market. A more promising avenue for European energy diversification is new pipeline construction to open up new sources of supply independent of Russia (especially the Nabucco pipeline), and liquefied natural gas purchases.Markets and Market Access,Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Energy Production and Transportation,Economic Theory&Research,Oil Refining&Gas Industry

The political, regulatory and market failures that caused the US financial crisis

This paper discusses the key regulatory, market and political failures that led to the 2008-2009 United States financial crisis. While Congress was fixing the Savings and Loan crisis, it failed to give the regulator of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac normal bank supervisory power. This was a political failure as Congress was appealing to narrow constituencies. In the mid-1990s, to encourage home ownership, the Administration changedenforcement of the Community Reinvestment Act, effectively requiring banks to lower bank mortgage standards to underserved areas. Crucially, the risky mortgage standards then spread to other sectors of the market. Market failure problems ensued as banks, mortgage brokers, securitizers, credit rating agencies, and asset managers were all plagued by problems such as moral hazard or conflicts of interest. The author explains that financial deregulation of the past three decades is unrelated to the financial crisis, and makes several recommendations for regulatory reform.Debt Markets,Access to Finance,Emerging Markets,Banks&Banking Reform,Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress

Deep trade policy options for Armenia : the importance of services, trade facilitation and standards liberalization

This paper develops an innovative 21 sector computable general equilibrium model of Armenia to assess the impact on Armenia of a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement with the European Union, as well as further regional or multilateral trade policy commitments. The analysis finds that such an agreement with the European Union will likely result in substantial gains to Armenia, but shows that the gains derive from the deep aspects of the agreement. In order of importance, the sources of the gains are: (i) trade facilitation and reduction in border costs; (ii) services liberalization; and (iii) standards harmonization. A shallow agreement with the European Union that focuses only on preferential tariff liberalization in goods will likely lead to small losses to Armenia primarily due to a loss of productivity from lost varieties of technologies from the rest of the world region in manufactured products. Additional gains can be expected in the long run from an improvement in the investment climate. The authors estimate only small gains from a services agreement with countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States, but significant gains from expanding services liberalization multilaterally.Economic Theory&Research,Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Emerging Markets,Free Trade,Trade Policy

Regional trade policy options for Tanzania : the importance of services commitments

Despite the growing importance of commitments to foreign investors in services in regional trade agreements, there are no applied general equilibrium models in the literature that assess these regional impacts. This paper develops a 52 sector applied general equilibrium model of Tanzania with foreign direct investment, and uses that model to assess Tanzania's regional and multilateral trade options. The model incorporates the features of the modern theory of international trade that has shown empirically that trade and foreign direct investment can increase productivity, and trade and foreign direct investment with technologically advanced countries is especially valuable for that purpose. To assess the sensitivity of the results to parameter values, the model is executed 30,000 times, and the results are reported as confidence intervals of the sample distributions. The analysis finds that a 50 percent preferential reduction in the ad valorem equivalents of barriers in all business services by Tanzania with respect to its African regional partners would be slightly beneficial for Tanzania. But wider liberalization, with larger partners or multilaterally, it will yield much larger gains due to providing access to a much wider set of service providers. Finally, the results show that the largest gains in services would be derived from reduction of regulatory barriers that are geographically non-discriminatory.Economic Theory&Research,Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Emerging Markets,Environmental Economics&Policies,Banks&Banking Reform

Services liberalization in preferential trade arrangements : the case of Kenya

Given the growing importance of commitments to foreign investors in services in regional trade agreements, it is important to develop applied general equilibrium models to assess the impacts of liberalization of barriers to multinational service providers. This paper develops a 55 sector applied general equilibrium model of Kenya with foreign direct investment and Dixit-Stiglitz productivity effects from additional varieties of imperfectly competitive goods or services, and uses the model to assess its regional and multilateral trade options, focusing on commitments to foreign investors in services. To assess the sensitivity of the results to parameter values, the model is executed 30,000 times, and results are reported as confidence intervals of the sample distributions. The analysis reveals that a 50 percent preferential reduction in the ad valorem equivalents of barriers in all business services by Kenya with its African partners would be somewhat beneficial for Kenya. If a preferential agreement with African partners is combined with an agreement with the European Union, the gains would more than triple the gains of an Africa only agreement. Multilateral reduction of services barriers, however, would yield gains about 12 times the gains of an agreement with the Africa region alone. These results suggest that preferential liberalization in the region is a valuable first step, but wider liberalization, with larger partners and liberal rules of origin or multilaterally, will yield much larger gains due to providing access to a much wider set of services providers. The largest gains would come from domestic regulatory reform in services, as this would almost triple the gains of multilateral liberalization.Economic Theory&Research,Emerging Markets,Public Sector Corruption&Anticorruption Measures,Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Free Trade

Exchange rate overvaluation and trade protection - lessons from experience

Despite a trend toward more flexible rates, more than half the world's countries maintain fixed or managed exchange rates. In the 1980s and 1990s, developing countries as a group progressively liberalized their trade regimes, but some governments defend their exchange rate in actions that run counter to long-run plans for liberalization. Without discussing the relative merits of fixed and flexible exchange rate systems, the authors note that exchange rate management in many countries has resulted in overvaluation of the real exchange rate. Roughly twenty five percent of the countries for which data are available have overvalued exchange rates, with black market premiums from 10 percent to more than 100 percent. After surveying the literature, the authors present lessons from experience about what has worked (or not) in response to crises involving external shocks and external trade deficits - and why. Trying to defend an overvalued exchange rate with protectionist trade policies is a classic pattern, but experience shows such protection does significantly retard the country's growth, and delay its integration into the world trading community. In fact, and overvalued exchange rate is often the root cause of protection, preventing the country from returning to more liberal trade policies that allow growth and integration into the world community without exchange rate adjustment. Most developing countries have downward price and wage rigidities and, with an external trade deficit, require some form of nominal exchange rate adjustment to restore external equilibrium. The authors present cross-country econometric and case study evidence - citing examples from Argentina, Chile, Ghana, The Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Turkey, Uruguay, and Sub-Saharan Africa (including the CFA zone) - that overvalued exchange rates reduce economic growth. Defending the exchange rate, they show, has nor no medium-term benefits, since falling reserves will eventually force devaluation. Better to have devaluation occur without further debilitating losses in reserves and lost productivity because of import controls. After devaluation the exchange rate will reach a new equilibrium, strongly influenced by government and central bank policies.ICT Policy and Strategies,Environmental Economics&Policies,Fiscal&Monetary Policy,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Economic Theory&Research,Macroeconomic Management,Environmental Economics&Policies,Achieving Shared Growth,Economic Stabilization,Economic Theory&Research

Trade liberalization and endogenous growth in a small open economy : a quantitative assessment

The authors develop a numerical endogenous growth model approximating an infinite horizon, which allows them to investigate the relationship between trade liberalization and economic growth. Economic theory generally implies that trade liberalization will improve economic growth, and the two phenomena are positively correlated in empirical tests, but the connection is not well-substantiated in numerical general equilibrium models. In the authors'model, an intermediate input affects aggregate output through a Dixit-Stiglitz function. Additional varieties provide the engine of growth in this framework and the existence of this mechanism magnifies the welfare costs. In this model with lump sum revenue replacement, reducing a tariff from 20 percent to 10 percent produces a welfare increase (in terms of Hicksian equivalent variation over the infinite horizon) of 10.7 percent of the present value of consumption in their central model, where the economy is assumed to be unable to borrow on international financial markets. If macroeconomic and financial reforms are in place that would allow international borrowing, however, the same tariff cut is estimated to result in a 37 percent increase in Hicksian equivalent variation. On the other hand, if inefficient replacement taxes must be used in an economy without the capacity to borrow internationally, the gains would be reduced to 4.7 percent. Larger tariff cuts--typical of those in many developing countries over the past 30 years--produce larger estimated welfare gains at least proportionate to the size of the cut. The authors apply the model to five developing countries and estimate the impact of the tariff changes those countries plan to undertake as part of Uruguay Round commitments. Because of the dynamic effects, estimated gains are considerably larger than those found in the literature on the impact of the Uruguay Round.International Terrorism&Counterterrorism,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Banks&Banking Reform,Labor Policies,Inequality,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,TF054105-DONOR FUNDED OPERATION ADMINISTRATION FEE INCOME AND EXPENSE ACCOUNT,Trade and Regional Integration

Modeling Services Liberalization: The Case of Tanzania

This paper employs a 52-sector, small, open-economy computable general equilibrium model of the Tanzanian economy to assess the impact of the liberalization of regulatory barriers against foreign and domestic business service providers in Tanzania. The model incorporates productivity effects in both goods and services markets endogenously, through a Dixit-Stiglitz framework. It summarizes policy notes on the key business service sectors that were prepared for this work, and estimates the ad valorem equivalent of barriers to foreign direct investment based on these policy notes and detailed questionnaires completed by specialists in Tanzania. The authors estimate that Tanzania will gain about 5.3 percent of the value of Tanzanian consumption in the medium run (or about 4.8 percent of gross domestic product) from a full reform package that also includes uniform tariffs. The estimated gains increase to about 16 percent of consumption in the long-run, steady-state model, where the impact on the accumulation of capital from an improvement in the productivity of capital is taken into account. Decomposition exercises reveal that the largest gains to Tanzania will derive from liberalization of costly regulatory barriers that are non-discriminatory in their impacts between Tanzanian and multinational service providers.accounting; accurate estimate; aged; allocation; amount of money; baseline scenario; beneficiaries; beneficiary; Breast Cancer; budget constraint; calculation; central government; child care