Recent Performance of the Canadian Economy: A Regional View

This article first outlines the activities of the Bank's regional offices and looks at how regional economic analysis fits into the Bank's decision-making process. The changing role of the regional offices in communications and in information gathering is examined, focusing on the quarterly surveys of industries and associations. The second section reviews, from a regional perspective, economic developments since the Asian crisis and future prospects.

A Survey of the Price-Setting Behaviour of Canadian Companies

To better understand price-setting behaviour in the Canadian economy, the Bank of Canada's regional offices surveyed a representative sample of 170 firms between July 2002 and March 2003. The authors discuss the reasons behind the survey, the methodology used to develop the questionnaire and conduct the interviews, and summarize the results. The study also assessed several explanations for holding prices steady despite market pressures for a change. The survey findings indicate that prices in Canada are relatively flexible and have become more flexible over the past decade. Price stickiness was generally found to originate in firms' fears of antagonizing customers or disturbing the goodwill or reputation developed with them. A detailed discussion of the results includes a consideration of their implications for monetary policy.

Factors Associated with Revision Surgery after Internal Fixation of Hip Fractures

Background: Femoral neck fractures are associated with high rates of revision surgery after management with internal fixation. Using data from the Fixation using Alternative Implants for the Treatment of Hip fractures (FAITH) trial evaluating methods of internal fixation in patients with femoral neck fractures, we investigated associations between baseline and surgical factors and the need for revision surgery to promote healing, relieve pain, treat infection or improve function over 24 months postsurgery. Additionally, we investigated factors associated with (1) hardware removal and (2) implant exchange from cancellous screws (CS) or sliding hip screw (SHS) to total hip arthroplasty, hemiarthroplasty, or another internal fixation device. Methods: We identified 15 potential factors a priori that may be associated with revision surgery, 7 with hardware removal, and 14 with implant exchange. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards analyses in our investigation. Results: Factors associated with increased risk of revision surgery included: female sex, [hazard ratio (HR) 1.79, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.25-2.50; P = 0.001], higher body mass index (fo

The Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates: How Important Is It?

This paper surveys the literature on the zero bound on the nominal interest rate. It addresses questions ranging from the conditions under which the zero bound on the nominal interest rate might occur to policy options to avoid or use to exit from such a situation. We discuss literature that examines historical and country evidence, and literature that uses models to generate evidence on this question. There seems to be a consensus that the probability of encountering the zero bound is relatively low, especially if the inflation target established for the monetary authority is 2 per cent or more. There is some indication in the model work that the likelihood of encountering the zero bound increases at an increasing rate for lower inflation targets. Various caveats apply to drawing conclusions for Canada from the papers we surveyed, among them the paucity of historical experience where a zero bound has occurred, the risk of making inferences using data (or parameters) from different monetary regimes, the relatively few studies using Canadian data, and the weight to give to credibility.Inflation targets; Monetary policy transmission; Credibility

Downward Nominal-Wage Rigidity: Micro Evidence from Tobit Models

This paper uses Tobit models and data for union contracts to examine the extent of downward nominal-wage rigidity in Canada. To be consistent with important stylized facts, the models allow the variance of the notional wage-change distribution to be time-varying and test for menu-cost effects. The empirical results confirm the importance of using a general specification with a time-changing variance and menu-cost effects. The variance of the notional distribution fell as inflation trended downward over the sample period, and there is evidence that menu-cost effects cause some contracts to have wage freezes rather than small wage increases. Each of these features reduces the estimated effect of rigidity on wage growth. The estimated net effect of downward rigidity and menu costs in the 1990s is approximately 0.4 percentage points for the average wage change in the first year of contracts, and less than 0.1 percentage point for the average annual change over the lifetime of contracts. On balance, the evidence suggests that the long-run trade-off between inflation and the unemployment rate is close to vertical at inflation rates of 2 per cent or more if productivity growth is near the average in recent decades.Inflation targets; Monetary policy transmission; Credibility

A reference guide for the Business Outlook Survey

In 1997, the Bank of Canada established regional offices to enhance communication and liaison activities across the country and to gather more effective regional input for the Bank's policy deliberations. Shortly thereafter, the regional offices began conducting the Business Outlook Survey (BOS)-a quarterly face-to-face survey of senior managers at Canadian firms. The BOS has become an important part of monetary policy deliberations at the Bank of Canada and is also well known in Canadian policy and financial circles. This paper compiles more than 20 years of experience conducting the BOS and serves as a comprehensive reference manual. More specifically, it provides a brief history of the BOS; explains and discusses the survey's sampling strategy and other elements of its design and implementation; highlights some demographic characteristics of the firms that participate; assembles a list of special topics addressed in both the quarterly BOS and the ad-hoc surveys conducted by regional offices; discusses some BOS questions not regularly published; and updates and augments an earlier assessment (Martin and Papile 2004) of the information content of BOS indicators

Asking about wages: Results from the Bank of Canada's Wage Setting Survey of Canadian companies

The Bank of Canada conducted a Wage Setting Survey with a sample of 200 private sector firms from mid-October 2007 to May 2008. Results indicate that wage adjustments for the Canadian non-union private workforce are overwhelmingly time dependent, with a fixed duration of one year, and are clustered in the first four months of the year, suggesting that wage stickiness may not be constant over the year. Ad hoc adjustments between these fixed dates are rare, but when they do occur they are almost always upward and often in response to tight labour markets. The market wage rate is the most important factor managers consider when setting wages for their employees. Depending on firm size, different strategies are used to gain information about the market wage. Other important factors taken into account when setting wages include the firm's profitability, its difficulty in attracting staff and workers' productivity. While many managers acknowledge a link between the wage decision and inflation, very few use formal wage indexation rules such as a cost-of-living adjustment. Rather, most describe an informal backward-looking link. Survey results also suggest that managers are very reluctant to cut nominal base wages in times of weak demand. Managers are more likely to cut incentive pay, which would allow some flexibility in total compensation even if base pay is inflexible, or reduce the quantity of labour inputs (hours and employees)

What's up with unit non-response in the Bank of Canada's business outlook survey? The effect of staff tenure

Since 1997, the Bank of Canada's regional offices have been conducting the Business Outlook Survey (BOS), a quarterly survey of business conditions. Survey responses are gathered through face-to-face, confidential consultations with a sample of private sector firms representative of the various sectors, firm sizes and regions across Canada. Participation is voluntary and although efforts are made to encourage participation, some firms either do not respond to the Bank's contact attempts or refuse to or cannot participate for various reasons, resulting in unit non-response. Using data for all firms contacted between 2009 and 2016, this paper analyzes the determinants of unit non-response including the impact of the tenure of the Bank's survey booking teams. Difference-in-differences estimates suggest that new survey booking teams increase the probability of unit non-response. Building on previous findings, regression results also provide further support that some firm characteristics are associated with non-response, including firm size, ownership status, sector and participation history. There is little evidence to conclude that the effect linked to new booking teams differs significantly for new versus repeat firms. Finally, we find no statistically significant relationship between firms' credit scores and unit non-response, and no obvious upward trend in the BOS non-response rate once other relevant factors have been taken into account