The Stellar Halo in the Large Magellanic Cloud: Mass, Luminosity, and Microlensing Predictions

Recently obtained kinematic data has shown that the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) possesses an old stellar halo. In order to further characterize the properties of this halo, parametric King models are fit to the surface density of RR Lyrae stars. Using data from both the MACHO and OGLE II microlensing surveys, the model fits yield the center of their distribution at RA = 05:21.1+-0.8, Dec = -69:45+-6 (J2000) and a core radius of 1.42+-0.12 kpc. As a check the halo model is compared with RR Lyrae star counts in fields near the LMC's periphery previously surveyed with photographic plates. These data, however, require a cautious interpretation. Several topics regarding the LMC stellar halo are discussed. First, the properties of the halo imply a global mass-to-light ratio of M/L_V = 5.3+-2.1 and a total mass of 1.6+-0.6 10^10 M_sun for the LMC in good agreement with estimates based on the rotation curve. Second, although the LMC's disk and halo are kinematically distinct, the shape of the surface density profile of the halo is remarkably similar to that of the young disk. For example, the best-fit exponential scale length for the RR Lyrae stars is 1.47+-0.08 kpc, which compares to 1.46 kpc for the LMC's blue light. In the Galaxy, the halo and disk do not resemble each other like this. Finally, a local maximum in the LMC's microlensing optical depth due to halo-on-disk stellar self-lensing is predicted. For the parameters of the stellar halo obtained, this maximum is located near MACHO events LMC-4 and LMC-23, and is large enough to possibly account for these two events, but not for all of the observed microlensing.Comment: 11 pages, 1 figure, accepted to ApJ Letter

Keck Deep Fields. II. The UV Galaxy Luminosity Function at z~4, 3, and 2

We use very deep UGRI multi-field imaging obtained at the Keck telescope to study the evolution of the rest-frame 1700A galaxy luminosity function as the Universe doubles its age from z~4 to z~2. The depth of our imaging allows us to constrain the faint end of the luminosity function reaching M_1700A ~ -18.5 at z~3 (equivalent to ~1M_sun/yr) accounting for both N^1/2 uncertainty in the number of galaxies and for cosmic variance. We carefully examine many potential sources of systematic bias in our LF measurements before drawing the following conclusions. We find that the luminosity function of Lyman Break Galaxies evolves with time and that this evolution is likely differential with luminosity. The result is best constrained between the epochs at z~4 and z~3, where we find that the number density of sub-L* galaxies increases with time by at least a factor of 2.3 (11sigma statistical confidence); while the faint end of the LF evolves, the bright end appears to remain virtually unchanged, indicating that there may be differential, luminosity-dependent evolution significant at the 97% level. Potential systematic biases restric our ability to draw strong conclusions about continued evolution of the luminosity function to lower redshifts, z~2.2 and z~1.7, but, nevertheless, it appears certain that the number density of z~2.2 galaxies at all luminosities we studied, -22<M_1700A<-18, is at least as high as that of their counterparts at z~3. While it is not yet clear what mechanism underlies the observed evolution, the fact that this evolution is differential with luminosity opens up new avenues of improving our understanding of how galaxies form and evolve at high redshift.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ. Updated preprint to reflect this final versio

Forecast Encompassing Tests and Probability Forecasts

We consider tests of forecast encompassing for probability forecasts, for both quadratic and logarithmic scoring rules. We propose test statistics for the null of forecast encompassing, present the limiting distributions of the test statistics, and investigate the impact of estimating the forecasting models’ parameters on these distributions. The small-sample performance of the various statistics is investigated, both in terms of small numbers of forecasts and model estimation sample sizes. Two empirical applications show the usefulness of the tests for the evaluation of recession probability forecasts from logit models with different leading indicators as explanatory variables, and for evaluating survey-based probability forecasts. Probability forecasts ; encompassing tests ; recession probabilities

Structural Analysis and Stochastic Modelling Suggest a Mechanism for Calmodulin Trapping by CaMKII

Activation of CaMKII by calmodulin and the subsequent maintenance of constitutive activity through autophosphorylation at threonine residue 286 (Thr286) are thought to play a major role in synaptic plasticity. One of the effects of autophosphorylation at Thr286 is to increase the apparent affinity of CaMKII for calmodulin, a phenomenon known as “calmodulin trapping”. It has previously been suggested that two binding sites for calmodulin exist on CaMKII, with high and low affinities, respectively. We built structural models of calmodulin bound to both of these sites. Molecular dynamics simulation showed that while binding of calmodulin to the supposed low-affinity binding site on CaMKII is compatible with closing (and hence, inactivation) of the kinase, and could even favour it, binding to the high-affinity site is not. Stochastic simulations of a biochemical model showed that the existence of two such binding sites, one of them accessible only in the active, open conformation, would be sufficient to explain calmodulin trapping by CaMKII. We can explain the effect of CaMKII autophosphorylation at Thr286 on calmodulin trapping: It stabilises the active state and therefore makes the high-affinity binding site accessible. Crucially, a model with only one binding site where calmodulin binding and CaMKII inactivation are strictly mutually exclusive cannot reproduce calmodulin trapping. One of the predictions of our study is that calmodulin binding in itself is not sufficient for CaMKII activation, although high-affinity binding of calmodulin is

Keck Deep Fields. III. Luminosity-dependent Evolution of the Ultraviolet Luminosity and Star Formation Rate Densities at z~4, 3, and 2

We use the Keck Deep Fields UGRI catalog of z~4, 3, and 2 UV-selected galaxies to study the evolution of the rest-frame 1700A luminosity density at high redshift. The ability to reliably constrain the contribution of faint galaxies is critical and our data do so as they reach to M*+2 even at z~4 and deeper still at lower redshifts. We find that the luminosity density at high redshift is dominated by the hitherto poorly studied galaxies fainter than L*, and, indeed, the the bulk of the UV light in the high-z Universe comes from galaxies in the luminosity range L=0.1-1L*. It is these faint galaxies that govern the behavior of the total UV luminosity density. Overall, there is a gradual rise in luminosity density starting at z~4 or earlier, followed by a shallow peak or a plateau within z~3--1, and then followed by the well-know plunge at lower redshifts. Within this total picture, luminosity density in sub-L* galaxies evolves more rapidly at high redshift, z>~2, than that in more luminous objects. However, this is reversed at lower redshifts, z<~1, a reversal that is reminiscent of galaxy downsizing. Within the context of the models commonly used in the observational literature, there seemingly aren't enough faint or bright LBGs to maintain ionization of intergalactic gas even as late as z~4. This is particularly true at earlier epochs and even more so if the faint-end evolutionary trends we observe at z~3 and 4 continue to higher redshifts. Apparently the Universe must be easier to reionize than some recent studies have assumed. Nevertheless, sub-L* galaxies do dominate the total UV luminosity density at z>~2 and this dominance further highlights the need for follow-up studies that will teach us more about these very numerous but thus far largely unexplored systems.Comment: Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal. Abstract abridge

Preheating after multifield inflation with nonminimal couplings, II: Resonance Structure

This is the second in a series of papers on preheating in inflationary models comprised of multiple scalar fields coupled nonminimally to gravity. In this paper, we work in the rigid-spacetime approximation and consider field trajectories within the single-field attractor, which is a generic feature of these models. We construct the Floquet charts to find regions of parameter space in which particle production is efficient for both the adiabatic and isocurvature modes, and analyze the resonance structure using analytic and semi-analytic techniques. Particle production in the adiabatic direction is characterized by the existence of an asymptotic scaling solution at large values of the nonminimal couplings, $\xi_I \gg 1$, in which the dominant instability band arises in the long-wavelength limit, for comoving wavenumbers $k \rightarrow 0$. However, the large-$\xi_I$ regime is not reached until $\xi_I \geq {\cal O} (100)$. In the intermediate regime, with $\xi_I \sim {\cal O}(1 - 10)$, the resonance structure depends strongly on wavenumber and couplings. The resonance structure for isocurvature perturbations is distinct and more complicated than its adiabatic counterpart. An intermediate regime, for $\xi_I \sim {\cal O} (1 - 10)$, is again evident. For large values of $\xi_I$, the Floquet chart consists of densely spaced, nearly parallel instability bands, suggesting a very efficient preheating behavior. The increased efficiency arises from features of the nontrivial field-space manifold in the Einstein frame, which itself arises from the fields' nonminimal couplings in the Jordan frame, and has no analogue in models with minimal couplings. Quantitatively, the approach to the large-$\xi_I$ asymptotic solution for isocurvature modes is slower than in the case of the adiabatic modes.Comment: 46 pages, 23 figures. References added and minor edits made to match published versio

Preheating after multifield inflation with nonminimal couplings, III: Dynamical spacetime results

This paper concludes our semi-analytic study of preheating in inflationary models comprised of multiple scalar fields coupled nonminimally to gravity. Using the covariant framework of paper I in this series, we extend the rigid-spacetime results of paper II by considering both the expansion of the universe during preheating, as well as the effect of the coupled metric perturbations on particle production. The adiabatic and isocurvature perturbations are governed by different effective masses that scale differently with the nonminimal couplings and evolve differently in time. The effective mass for the adiabatic modes is dominated by contributions from the coupled metric perturbations immediately after inflation. The metric perturbations contribute an oscillating tachyonic term that enhances an early period of significant particle production for the adiabatic modes, which ceases on a time-scale governed by the nonminimal couplings $\xi_I$. The effective mass of the isocurvature perturbations, on the other hand, is dominated by contributions from the fields' potential and from the curvature of the field-space manifold (in the Einstein frame), the balance between which shifts on a time-scale governed by $\xi_I$. As in papers I and II, we identify distinct behavior depending on whether the nonminimal couplings are small ($\xi_I \lesssim {\cal O} (1)$), intermediate ($\xi_I \sim {\cal O} (1 - 10)$), or large ($\xi_I \geq 100$).Comment: 34 pages, 11 figures. References added and minor edits made to match published versio

RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN MARKET PRICE SIGNALS AND PRODUCTION MANAGEMENT: THE CASE OF FED BEEF

The beef industry in the United States consists of several distinct production levels ranging from the cow-calf producer at the lowest level to the final consumer. These sectors face varying levels of profitability, degrees of market power, conflicting goals, and price signals. Environmental regulations involve questions of what costs are involved, who is in a position to pay these costs, and whether market prices are capable of signaling different environmental practices. Understanding the relationships within the beef industry may allow researchers to fine-tune analyses of environmental issues in the beef industry.Beef, BMP, Cattle, Pricing, Livestock Production/Industries, Marketing,