FiLM-Ensemble: Probabilistic Deep Learning via Feature-wise Linear Modulation

The ability to estimate epistemic uncertainty is often crucial when deploying machine learning in the real world, but modern methods often produce overconfident, uncalibrated uncertainty predictions. A common approach to quantify epistemic uncertainty, usable across a wide class of prediction models, is to train a model ensemble. In a naive implementation, the ensemble approach has high computational cost and high memory demand. This challenges in particular modern deep learning, where even a single deep network is already demanding in terms of compute and memory, and has given rise to a number of attempts to emulate the model ensemble without actually instantiating separate ensemble members. We introduce FiLM-Ensemble, a deep, implicit ensemble method based on the concept of Feature-wise Linear Modulation (FiLM). That technique was originally developed for multi-task learning, with the aim of decoupling different tasks. We show that the idea can be extended to uncertainty quantification: by modulating the network activations of a single deep network with FiLM, one obtains a model ensemble with high diversity, and consequently well-calibrated estimates of epistemic uncertainty, with low computational overhead in comparison. Empirically, FiLM-Ensemble outperforms other implicit ensemble methods, and it and comes very close to the upper bound of an explicit ensemble of networks (sometimes even beating it), at a fraction of the memory cost.Comment: accepted at NeurIPS 202

Mouthwash use and cancer of the head and neck: a pooled analysis from the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology Consortium

Most mouthwashes contain alcohol, a known cause of head and neck cancer (oral cavity, pharynx, larynx), likely through the carcinogenic activity of acetaldehyde, formed in the oral cavity from alcohol

Occupational socioeconomic risk associations for head and neck cancer in Europe and South America: individual participant data analysis of pooled case–control studies within the INHANCE Consortium

Background: The association between socioeconomic disadvantage (low education and/or income) and head and neck cancer is well established, with smoking and alcohol consumption explaining up to three-quarters of the risk. We aimed to investigate the nature of and explanations for head and neck cancer risk associated with occupational socioeconomic prestige (a perceptual measure of psychosocial status), occupational socioeconomic position and manual-work experience, and to assess the potential explanatory role of occupational exposures. Methods: Pooled analysis included 5818 patients with head and neck cancer (and 7326 control participants) from five studies in Europe and South America. Lifetime job histories were coded to: (1) occupational social prestige-Treiman's Standard International Occupational Prestige Scale (SIOPS); (2) occupational socioeconomic position-International Socio-Economic Index (ISEI); and (3) manual/non-manual jobs. Results: For the longest held job, adjusting for smoking, alcohol and nature of occupation, increased head and neck cancer risk estimates were observed for low SIOPS OR=1.88 (95% CI: 1.64 to 2.17), low ISEI OR=1.74 (95% CI: 1.51 to 1.99) and manual occupations OR=1.49 (95% CI: 1.35 to 1.64). Following mutual adjustment by socioeconomic exposures, risk associated with low SIOPS remained OR=1.59 (95% CI: 1.30 to 1.94). Conclusions: These findings indicate that low occupational socioeconomic prestige, position and manual work are associated with head and neck cancer, and such risks are only partly explained by smoking, alcohol and occupational exposures. Perceptual occupational psychosocial status (SIOPS) appears to be the strongest socioeconomic factor, relative to socioeconomic position and manual/non-manual work

Mouthwash use and cancer of the head and neck: a pooled analysis from the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology Consortium (INHANCE)

Most mouthwashes contain alcohol, a known cause of head and neck cancer (oral cavity, pharynx, larynx), likely through the carcinogenic activity of acetaldehyde, formed in the oral cavity from alcohol. We carried out a pooled analysis of 8981 cases of head and neck cancer and 10090 controls from 12 case-control studies with comparable information on mouthwash use in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology Consortium. Logistic regression was used to assess the association of mouthwash use with cancers of the oral cavity, oropharynx, hypopharynx, and larynx, adjusting for study, age, sex, pack-years of tobacco smoking, number of alcoholic drinks/day, and education. Compared with never users of mouthwash, the odds ratio (OR) of all head and neck cancers was 1.01 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.94-1.08] for ever users, based on 12 studies. The corresponding ORs of cancer of the oral cavity and oropharynx were 1.11 (95% CI: 1.00-1.23) and 1.28 (95% CI: 1.06-1.56), respectively. OR for all head and neck cancer was 1.15 (95% CI: 1.01-1.30) for use for more than 35 years, based on seven studies (P for linear trend=0.01), and OR 1.31 (95% CI: 1.09-1.58) for use more than one per day, based on five studies (P for linear trend <0.001). Although limited by the retrospective nature of the study and the limited ability to assess risks of mouthwash use in nonusers of tobacco and alcohol, this large investigation shows potential risks for head and neck cancer subsites and in long-term and frequent users of mouthwash. This pooled analysis provides the most precise estimate of the association between mouthwash use and head and neck cancer

Alcohol Drinking in Never Users of Tobacco, Cigarette Smoking in Never Drinkers, and the Risk of Head and Neck Cancer: Pooled Analysis in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology Consortium

Background At least 75% of head and neck cancers are attributable to a combination of cigarette smoking and alcohol drinking. A precise understanding of the independent association of each of these factors in the absence of the other with the risk of head and neck cancer is needed to elucidate mechanisms of head and neck carcinogenesis and to assess the efficacy of interventions aimed at controlling either risk factor. Methods We examined the extent to which head and neck cancer is associated with cigarette smoking among never drinkers and with alcohol drinking among never users of tobacco. We pooled individual-level data from 15 case-control studies that included 10244 head and neck cancer case subjects and 15227 control subjects, of whom 1072 case subjects and 5775 control subjects were never users of tobacco and 1598 case subjects and 4051 control subjects were never drinkers of alcohol. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using unconditional logistic regression models. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results Among never drinkers, cigarette smoking was associated with an increased risk of head and neck cancer (OR for ever versus never smoking = 2.13, 95% CI = 1.52 to 2.98), and there were clear dose-response relationships for the frequency, duration, and number of pack-years of cigarette smoking. Approximately 24% (95% CI = 16% to 31%) of head and neck cancer cases among nondrinkers in this study would have been prevented if these individuals had not smoked cigarettes. Among never users of tobacco, alcohol consumption was associated with an increased risk of head and neck cancer only when alcohol was consumed at high frequency (OR for three or more drinks per day versus never drinking = 2.04, 95% CI = 1.29 to 3.21). The association with high-frequency alcohol intake was limited to cancers of the oropharynx/hypopharynx and larynx. Conclusions Our results represent the most precise estimates available of the independent association of each of the two main risk factors of head and neck cancer, and they exemplify the strengths of large-scale consortia in cancer epidemiolog

Body mass index and risk of head and neck cancer in a pooled analysis of case-control studies in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology (INHANCE) Consortium

Background Head and neck cancer (HNC) risk is elevated among lean people and reduced among overweight or obese people in some studies; however, it is unknown whether these associations differ for certain subgroups or are influenced by residual confounding from the effects of alcohol and tobacco use or by other sources of biases. Methods We pooled data from 17 case-control studies including 12 716 cases and the 17 438 controls. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated for associations between body mass index (BMI) at different ages and HNC risk, adjusted for age, sex, centre, race, education, tobacco smoking and alcohol consumption. Results Adjusted ORs (95% CIs) were elevated for people with BMI at reference (date of diagnosis for cases and date of selection for controls) ≤18.5 kg/m2 (2.13, 1.75-2.58) and reduced for BMI >25.0-30.0 kg/m2 (0.52, 0.44-0.60) and BMI ≥30 kg/m2 (0.43, 0.33-0.57), compared with BMI >18.5-25.0 kg/m2. These associations did not differ by age, sex, tumour site or control source. Although the increased risk among people with BMI ≤18.5 kg/m2 was not modified by tobacco smoking or alcohol drinking, the inverse association for people with BMI > 25 kg/m2 was present only in smokers and drinkers. Conclusions In our large pooled analysis, leanness was associated with increased HNC risk regardless of smoking and drinking status, although reverse causality cannot be excluded. The reduced risk among overweight or obese people may indicate body size is a modifier of the risk associated with smoking and drinking. Further clarification may be provided by analyses of prospective cohort and mechanistic studie