1 research outputs found
Comprehensive Forecasting of California's Energy Consumption: A Multi-Source and Sectoral Analysis Using ARIMA and ARIMAX Models
California's significant role as the second-largest consumer of energy in the
United States underscores the importance of accurate energy consumption
predictions. With a thriving industrial sector, a burgeoning population, and
ambitious environmental goals, the state's energy landscape is dynamic and
complex. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of California's energy
consumption trends and provides detailed forecasting models for different
energy sources and sectors. The study leverages ARIMA and ARIMAX models,
considering both historical consumption data and exogenous variables. We
address the unique challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic and the limited
data for 2022, highlighting the resilience of these models in the face of
uncertainty. Our analysis reveals that while fossil fuels continue to dominate
California's energy landscape, renewable energy sources, particularly solar and
biomass, are experiencing substantial growth. Hydroelectric power, while
sensitive to precipitation, remains a significant contributor to renewable
energy consumption. Furthermore, we anticipate ongoing efforts to reduce fossil
fuel consumption. The forecasts for energy consumption by sector suggest
continued growth in the commercial and residential sectors, reflecting
California's expanding economy and population. In contrast, the industrial
sector is expected to experience more moderate changes, while the
transportation sector remains the largest energy consumer