Circulation characteristics of a monsoon depression during BOBMEX-99 using high-resolution analysis

The skill and efficiency of a numerical model mostly varies with the quality of initial values, accuracy on parameterization of physical processes and horizontal and vertical resolution of the model. Commonly used low-resolution reanalyses are hardly able to capture the prominent features associated with organized convective processes in a monsoon depression. The objective is to prepare improved high-resolution analysis by the use of MM5 modelling system developed by the Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR). It requires the objective comparison of high and low-resolution analysis datasets in assessing the specific convective features of a monsoon depression. For this purpose, reanalysis datasets of NCAR/NCEP (National Center for Atmospheric Research/National Centers for Environmental Prediction) at a horizontal resolution of 2.5° (latitude/longitude) have been used as first guess in the objective analysis scheme. The additional asynoptic datasets obtained during BOBMEX-99 are utilized within the assimilation process. Cloud Motion Wind (CMW) data of METEOSAT satellite and SSM/I surface wind data are included for the improvement of derived analysis. The multiquadric (MQD) interpolation technique is selected and applied for meteorological objective analysis at a horizontal resolution of 30 km. After a successful inclusion of additional data, the resulting reanalysis is able to produce the structure of convective organization as well as prominent synoptic features associated with monsoon depression. Comparison and error verifications have been done with the help of available upper-air station data. The objective verification reveals the efficiency of the analysis scheme

An empirical analysis of market discipline imposed by stakeholders in the Indonesian banking sector

Financial sector authorities have incorporated market discipline as an integral part of their banking regulatory frameworks. Accordingly, in Indonesia, the Basel II Capital Accord has institutionalized the market discipline as Pillar 3 to complement requirements under Pillar 1 (risk-based calculation of capital) and Pillar 2 (supervisory review process). In addition, the provision of a financial safety net (FSN) has been a key element of the policy response to recent financial crises. This provision, however, might potentially lead to moral hazard outcomes that could impair the incentives for market players to monitor and discipline financial institutions. In turn, this could incite more risky bank activities and increase the likelihood of a financial crisis. Therefore, a further investigation of the presence of market discipline and the impact of a FSN is imperative to develop a more credible policy to safeguard financial system stability, especially in developing economies such as Indonesia. This study investigates the presence of market discipline in the Indonesian banking sector as imposed by depositors, bond holders, and equity holders. The discipline by depositors is measured through the impact of bank fundamentals on the changes in the amount of deposits. Whereas, discipline by bond and equity holders is measured through the impact of bank fundamentals on bond yield spreads and equity returns, respectively. Bank fundamentals, in this study, are associated with the Capital Asset Management Earning and Liquidity (CAMEL) financial indicators that are commonly used by banking authorities to assess bank soundness. This study employs a dynamic panel data model using a sample of 95 banks, 70 bonds, and 11 equities. Regardless of the lack of ideal conditions for an effective market discipline in a developing market, the present study has identified the presence of market discipline imposed by depositors and bond holders, but no significant evidence of discipline by equity holders. Moreover, this study identified moral hazard implications of the provision of a FSN. These include the lessening of discipline by large and institutional depositors and the existence of the “too big to fail” (TBTF) perception among stakeholders

Impact of vegetation on the simulation of seasonal monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent using a regional model

The change in the type of vegetation fraction can induce major changes in the local effects such as local evaporation, surface radiation, etc., that in turn induces changes in the model simulated outputs. The present study deals with the effects of vegetation in climate modeling over the Indian region using the MM5 mesoscale model. The main objective of the present study is to investigate the impact of vegetation dataset derived from SPOT satellite by ISRO (Indian Space Research Organization) versus that of USGS (United States Geological Survey) vegetation dataset on the simulation of the Indian summer monsoon. The present study has been conducted for five monsoon seasons (1998-2002), giving emphasis over the two contrasting southwest monsoon seasons of 1998 (normal) and 2002 (deficient). The study reveals mixed results on the impact of vegetation datasets generated by ISRO and USGS on the simulations of the monsoon. Results indicate that the ISRO data has a positive impact on the simulations of the monsoon over northeastern India and along the western coast. The MM5-USGS has greater tendency of overestimation of rainfall. It has higher standard deviation indicating that it induces a dispersive effect on the rainfall simulation. Among the five years of study, it is seen that the RMSE of July and JJAS (June-July-August-September) for All India Rainfall is mostly lower for MM5-ISRO. Also, the bias of July and JJAS rainfall is mostly closer to unity for MM5-ISRO. The wind fields at 850 hPa and 200 hPa are also better simulated by MM5 using ISRO vegetation. The synoptic features like Somali jet and Tibetan anticyclone are simulated closer to the verification analysis by ISRO vegetation. The 2 m air temperature is also better simulated by ISRO vegetation over the northeastern India, showing greater spatial variability over the region. However, the JJAS total rainfall over north India and Deccan coast is better simulated using the USGS vegetation. Sensible heat flux over north-west India is also better simulated by MM5-USGS

AsiaPEX:Challenges and Prospects in Asian Precipitation Research

The Asian Precipitation Experiment (AsiaPEX) was initiated in 2019 to understand terrestrial precipitation over diverse hydroclimatological conditions for improved predictions, disaster reduction, and sustainable development across Asia under the framework of the Global Hydroclimatology Panel (GHP)/Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX). AsiaPEX is the successor to GEWEX Asian Monsoon Experiment (GAME; 1995-2005) and Monsoon Asian Hydro-Atmosphere Scientific Research and Prediction Initiative (MAHASRI; 2006-16). While retaining the key objectives of the aforementioned projects, the scientific targets of AsiaPEX focus on land-atmosphere coupling and improvements to the predictability of the Asian hydroclimatological system. AsiaPEX was designed for both fine-scale hydroclimatological processes occurring at the land surface and the integrated Asian hydroclimatological system characterized by multiscale interactions. We adopt six approaches including observation, process studies, scale interactions, high-resolution hydrological modeling, field campaigns, and climate projection, which bridge gaps in research activities conducted in different regions. Collaboration with mesoscale and global modeling researchers is one of the core methods in AsiaPEX. We review these strategies based on the literature and our initial outcomes. These include the estimation and validation of highresolution satellite precipitation, investigations of extreme rainfall mechanisms, field campaigns over the Maritime Continent and Tibetan Plateau, areas of significant impact on the entire AsiaPEX region, process studies on diurnal- to interdecadal-scale interactions, and evaluation of the predictabilities of climate models for long-term variabilities. We will conduct integrated observational and modeling initiative, the Asian Monsoon Year (AMY)-II around 2025-28, whose strategies are the subregional observation platforms and integrated global analysis.</p