Modeling Violence against Women in India: Theories and Problems

This paper examined the following issues: 1. Is ‘violence against women’ a variable? What kind of variable is it? 2. Is it theoretically plausible to model ‘violence against women’? 3. If it is theoretically plausible to model ‘violence against women’, then is it feasible to estimate such a model and perform simulation exercises? Following are findings: 1. The decision to perpetrate ‘violence against women’ is a binary variable, which takes value unity (1) when the decision is ‘yes’ and zero (0) when the decision is ‘no’. 2. It is theoretically plausible to construct the models of estimating and forecasting the probability of occurrence of ‘violence against women’ facing a typical woman in a particular society on the basis of necessary information. 3. It is not feasible in practice to apply above models for the purposes of policy-formulation and policy-simulation in India because of absence of compilation or systematic compilation of the data on ‘violence against women’ and the variables determining ‘violence against women’

Endogenous Money, Output and Prices in India

This paper proposes to quantify the macroeconometric relationships among the variables broad money, lending by banks, price, and output in India using simultaneous equations system keeping in view the issue of endogeneity.Money, Output, Price, WPI, IIP, Credit, Commercial Bank, Endogeneity

Indian G-Sec Market II: Anatomy of Short Rates

This paper demonstrates how, without mechanically applying any formula like Nelson-Siegel or Nelson-Siegel-Svensson straight cut, a short term yield curve can intuitively be constructed with traded securities and then plugging the gaps with regression and cubic splines on case by case basis, which contains market information and gives enough room to scenario analysis for designing portfolio strategies. Opportunity of short run arbitrage is found non-existent. In terms of further research there is scope of running time series regression of short rates on 3 month MIBOR and one dummy variable for the news of RBI’s auction of dated securities. The patterns of spot rates, forward rates and par rates are similarly flat because the market participants seem not take any trade decisions on the eve of RBI auction and inflationary information content.yield curve, term structure, treasury bill, dated security, short rate, spot rate, par yield, forward rate

Definitions and Measures of Money Supply in India

A major part of this paper is literature review. The paper compiles in a nutshell all studies on definitions and measures of Money supply in India in a chronological yet logically consistent manner In doing so, alternative measures of money supply have been compared in this paper and it is found that the measure used by RBI is statistically more significant than the other advocated by a number of authors.bank, RBI, deposit, money supply, money stock, M1, M3

Modeling Violence against Women in India: Theories and Problems

This paper examined the following issues: 1. Is ‘violence against women’ a variable? What kind of variable is it? 2. Is it theoretically plausible to model ‘violence against women’? 3. If it is theoretically plausible to model ‘violence against women’, then is it feasible to estimate such a model and perform simulation exercises? Following are findings: 1. The decision to perpetrate ‘violence against women’ is a binary variable, which takes value unity (1) when the decision is ‘yes’ and zero (0) when the decision is ‘no’. 2. It is theoretically plausible to construct the models of estimating and forecasting the probability of occurrence of ‘violence against women’ facing a typical woman in a particular society on the basis of necessary information. 3. It is not feasible in practice to apply above models for the purposes of policy-formulation and policy-simulation in India because of absence of compilation or systematic compilation of the data on ‘violence against women’ and the variables determining ‘violence against women’.Violence, Woman, Probability

Determination of Money Supply in India: The Great Debate

Researchers reported that - there were two approaches to money supply determination in India: balance sheet or structural approach and money multiplier approach; the former focused on individual items in the balance sheet of the consolidated monetary sector in order to explain changes in money supply and the latter focused on the relationship between money stock and reserve money; the money multiplier approach emerged strongly as a critic to the balance sheet approach; between January 1976 and January 1978 there was a hot and rich debate between two groups of researchers, one group led by Gupta who believed in the money multiplier theory, the other group of RBI economists, who were not accepting this theory; the debate gave rise to a number of research papers where mostly regression techniques were used to estimate and forecast money supply function; Bhattacharya (1972), Gupta (1972) and Marwah (1972) used regression techniques to estimate money multiplier in India four years before the debate took place. The above debate is narrated below in an analytical style.money supply; high powered money; reserve money; RBI; Working Group; multiplier; balance sheet; forecast; currency

Forecasting Money Supply in India: Remaining Policy Issues

This article analyzes the issues, unaddressed in the contemporary econometric literature on forecasting money supply in India, with the help of the relevant studies. In doing so there is an attempt to ascertain what could be the best fit model to forecast money supply in India.Interest Rate, Forecast, Money Supply, Assets, Deregulation, Market

Econometric Models of Relationship among Money, Output and Prices

This paper discusses the econometric models and tools like Granger causality and VAR discussed in ascertaining the relationship between money, output and prices. It found that Jha et al (2002) and Ahmed (2003) employed a VAR model accompanied by ECM and Johansen-Juselius procedure; others like Rangarajan et al (1990) employed simulation models containing regressions equations of variety of forms simple linear function and double logarithmic function, and also autoregressive equations of first order (AR1) and only Ray et al (1988) employed filters for prewhitening purpose i.e. making a nonstationary series stationary. The filter technique did not seem to be popular. Even Jha et al (2002) employed ADF test in order to detect the level of integration of the series and accordingly took measures to ensure stationarity.Granger; causality; Sims; vector autoregression; multiplier

Conflict of Exchange Rates

Conflict between economic interests of two or more countries can take place in the inflation prone floating exchange regime and thus affect monetary policies of each other. This paper tries to examine whether the exchange rates of the currencies of the industrial countries are affecting India’s currency and making the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) intervene in the foreign exchange market. It is found that limitation of RBI data is a major factor constraining the progress of research on the above kind of conflict.Exchange Rate,IMF, stochastic, trend stationary, dollar

An Outline of the Existing Literature on Monetary Economics in India

As per the researchers on monetary economics, a detailed account of the changing role of money from Walrasian and Non-Walrasian settings to the more recent theories on the dynamics of the relationships between money, inflation and growth with reference to their historical evolution are available in Friedman et al. ed. (1998) and such type of theoretical work did not happen in India. There is a tendency among the Indian researchers to apply the theories developed abroad to up to date empirical data in econometrics models and then, with the help of econometric techniques and compare the results. For example Dash and Goal (2001) applied the theory of Foster (1992) and Chona (1976) applied the theory of Ahrensdorf and Thasan (1960). This paper dealt with such applications, their lacunae and attempts to resolve the issues unaddressed till 2005.monetary policy, money, interest rate, Keynes, monetarist, neo Keynesian, Quantity Theory, LM curve, Nachane, Brahmananda, Tobin, post Keynesian, endogenous, money supply, financial markets, bank, credit, loan