Input Output HMM for Indoor Temperature Prediction in Occupancy Management Under User Preferences

In this paper, a probabilistic machine learning method is proposed to predict the indoor temperature of an office environment. An IOHMM-based model is developed to represent the office environment under different circumstances of heating sources. One year of time series data is observed and studied to learn the dynamics of the indoor thermal states. The uncertainty associated with the changing aspects of the indoor temperature and its dependence on the outdoor temperature is considered in the model development. The well-known Baum Welch and forward-backward algorithms are adapted to learn the model parameters. Then, the Viterbi algorithm is used to predict the maximum path of hidden states, leading to predicting the most likely future temperatures. A numerical application is presented to demonstrate the model development steps and the training and testing results. Finally, the model's performance is validated using leave-one-out cross-validation, which shows that the model has a prediction accuracy of about 78%

Modeling occupant behavior in buildings

In the last four decades several methods have been used to model occupants' presence and actions (OPA) in buildings according to different purposes, available computational power, and technical solutions. This study reviews approaches, methods and key findings related to OPA modeling in buildings. An extensive database of related research documents is systematically constructed, and, using bibliometric analysis techniques, the scientific production and landscape are described. The initial literature screening identified more than 750 studies, out of which 278 publications were selected. They provide an overarching view of the development of OPA modeling methods. The research field has evolved from longitudinal collaborative efforts since the late 1970s and, so far, covers diverse building typologies mostly concentrated in a few climate zones. The modeling approaches in the selected literature are grouped into three categories (rule-based models, stochastic OPA modeling, and data-driven methods) for modeling occupancy-related target functions and a set of occupants’ actions (window, solar shading, electric lighting, thermostat adjustment, clothing adjustment and appliance use). The explanatory modeling is conventionally based on the model-based paradigm where occupant behavior is assumed to be stochastic, while the data-driven paradigm has found wide applications for the predictive modeling of OPA, applicable to control systems. The lack of established standard evaluation protocols was identified as a scientifically important yet rarely addressed research question. In addition, machine learning and deep learning are emerging in recent years as promising methods to address OPA modeling in real-world applications

Modeling occupant behavior in buildings

In the last four decades several methods have been used to model occupants' presence and actions (OPA) in buildings according to different purposes, available computational power, and technical solutions. This study reviews approaches, methods and key findings related to OPA modeling in buildings. An extensive database of related research documents is systematically constructed, and, using bibliometric analysis techniques, the scientific production and landscape are described. The initial literature screening identified more than 750 studies, out of which 278 publications were selected. They provide an overarching view of the development of OPA modeling methods. The research field has evolved from longitudinal collaborative efforts since the late 1970s and, so far, covers diverse building typologies mostly concentrated in a few climate zones. The modeling approaches in the selected literature are grouped into three categories (rule-based models, stochastic OPA modeling, and data-driven methods) for modeling occupancy-related target functions and a set of occupants’ actions (window, solar shading, electric lighting, thermostat adjustment, clothing adjustment and appliance use). The explanatory modeling is conventionally based on the model-based paradigm where occupant behavior is assumed to be stochastic, while the data-driven paradigm has found wide applications for the predictive modeling of OPA, applicable to control systems. The lack of established standard evaluation protocols was identified as a scientifically important yet rarely addressed research question. In addition, machine learning and deep learning are emerging in recent years as promising methods to address OPA modeling in real-world applications