Dynamic Jointrees

It is well known that one can ignore parts of a belief network when computing answers to certain probabilistic queries. It is also well known that the ignorable parts (if any) depend on the specific query of interest and, therefore, may change as the query changes. Algorithms based on jointrees, however, do not seem to take computational advantage of these facts given that they typically construct jointrees for worst-case queries; that is, queries for which every part of the belief network is considered relevant. To address this limitation, we propose in this paper a method for reconfiguring jointrees dynamically as the query changes. The reconfiguration process aims at maintaining a jointree which corresponds to the underlying belief network after it has been pruned given the current query. Our reconfiguration method is marked by three characteristics: (a) it is based on a non-classical definition of jointrees; (b) it is relatively efficient; and (c) it can reuse some of the computations performed before a jointree is reconfigured. We present preliminary experimental results which demonstrate significant savings over using static jointrees when query changes are considerable.Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Fourteenth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI1998

Conditioning Methods for Exact and Approximate Inference in Causal Networks

We present two algorithms for exact and approximate inference in causal networks. The first algorithm, dynamic conditioning, is a refinement of cutset conditioning that has linear complexity on some networks for which cutset conditioning is exponential. The second algorithm, B-conditioning, is an algorithm for approximate inference that allows one to trade-off the quality of approximations with the computation time. We also present some experimental results illustrating the properties of the proposed algorithms.Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Eleventh Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI1995

Human-Level Intelligence or Animal-Like Abilities?

The vision systems of the eagle and the snake outperform everything that we can make in the laboratory, but snakes and eagles cannot build an eyeglass or a telescope or a microscope. (Judea Pearl

Argument Calculus and Networks

A major reason behind the success of probability calculus is that it possesses a number of valuable tools, which are based on the notion of probabilistic independence. In this paper, I identify a notion of logical independence that makes some of these tools available to a class of propositional databases, called argument databases. Specifically, I suggest a graphical representation of argument databases, called argument networks, which resemble Bayesian networks. I also suggest an algorithm for reasoning with argument networks, which resembles a basic algorithm for reasoning with Bayesian networks. Finally, I show that argument networks have several applications: Nonmonotonic reasoning, truth maintenance, and diagnosis.Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Ninth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI1993

When do Numbers Really Matter?

Common wisdom has it that small distinctions in the probabilities quantifying a Bayesian network do not matter much for the resultsof probabilistic queries. However, one can easily develop realistic scenarios under which small variations in network probabilities can lead to significant changes in computed queries. A pending theoretical question is then to analytically characterize parameter changes that do or do not matter. In this paper, we study the sensitivity of probabilistic queries to changes in network parameters and prove some tight bounds on the impact that such parameters can have on queries. Our analytical results pinpoint some interesting situations under which parameter changes do or do not matter. These results are important for knowledge engineers as they help them identify influential network parameters. They are also important for approximate inference algorithms that preprocessnetwork CPTs to eliminate small distinctions in probabilities.Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Seventeenth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI2001

On Relaxing Determinism in Arithmetic Circuits

The past decade has seen a significant interest in learning tractable probabilistic representations. Arithmetic circuits (ACs) were among the first proposed tractable representations, with some subsequent representations being instances of ACs with weaker or stronger properties. In this paper, we provide a formal basis under which variants on ACs can be compared, and where the precise roles and semantics of their various properties can be made more transparent. This allows us to place some recent developments on ACs in a clearer perspective and to also derive new results for ACs. This includes an exponential separation between ACs with and without determinism; completeness and incompleteness results; and tractability results (or lack thereof) when computing most probable explanations (MPEs).Comment: In Proceedings of the Thirty-fourth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML

Dual Decomposition from the Perspective of Relax, Compensate and then Recover

Relax, Compensate and then Recover (RCR) is a paradigm for approximate inference in probabilistic graphical models that has previously provided theoretical and practical insights on iterative belief propagation and some of its generalizations. In this paper, we characterize the technique of dual decomposition in the terms of RCR, viewing it as a specific way to compensate for relaxed equivalence constraints. Among other insights gathered from this perspective, we propose novel heuristics for recovering relaxed equivalence constraints with the goal of incrementally tightening dual decomposition approximations, all the way to reaching exact solutions. We also show empirically that recovering equivalence constraints can sometimes tighten the corresponding approximation (and obtaining exact results), without increasing much the complexity of inference

Sensitivity Analysis in Bayesian Networks: From Single to Multiple Parameters

Previous work on sensitivity analysis in Bayesian networks has focused on single parameters, where the goal is to understand the sensitivity of queries to single parameter changes, and to identify single parameter changes that would enforce a certain query constraint. In this paper, we expand the work to multiple parameters which may be in the CPT of a single variable, or the CPTs of multiple variables. Not only do we identify the solution space of multiple parameter changes that would be needed to enforce a query constraint, but we also show how to find the optimal solution, that is, the one which disturbs the current probability distribution the least (with respect to a specific measure of disturbance). We characterize the computational complexity of our new techniques and discuss their applications to developing and debugging Bayesian networks, and to the problem of reasoning about the value (reliability) of new information.Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Twentieth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI2004

On Compiling DNNFs without Determinism

State-of-the-art knowledge compilers generate deterministic subsets of DNNF, which have been recently shown to be exponentially less succinct than DNNF. In this paper, we propose a new method to compile DNNFs without enforcing determinism necessarily. Our approach is based on compiling deterministic DNNFs with the addition of auxiliary variables to the input formula. These variables are then existentially quantified from the deterministic structure in linear time, which would lead to a DNNF that is equivalent to the input formula and not necessarily deterministic. On the theoretical side, we show that the new method could generate exponentially smaller DNNFs than deterministic ones, even by adding a single auxiliary variable. Further, we show that various existing techniques that introduce auxiliary variables to the input formulas can be employed in our framework. On the practical side, we empirically demonstrate that our new method can significantly advance DNNF compilation on certain benchmarks

Action Networks: A Framework for Reasoning about Actions and Change under Uncertainty

This work proposes action networks as a semantically well-founded framework for reasoning about actions and change under uncertainty. Action networks add two primitives to probabilistic causal networks: controllable variables and persistent variables. Controllable variables allow the representation of actions as directly setting the value of specific events in the domain, subject to preconditions. Persistent variables provide a canonical model of persistence according to which both the state of a variable and the causal mechanism dictating its value persist over time unless intervened upon by an action (or its consequences). Action networks also allow different methods for quantifying the uncertainty in causal relationships, which go beyond traditional probabilistic quantification. This paper describes both recent results and work in progress.Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Tenth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI1994