Forecasting in Hierarchical Environments

Forecasting is an important data analysis technique and serves as the basis for business planning in many application areas such as energy, sales and traffic management. The currently employed statistical models already provide very accurate predictions, but the forecasting calculation process is very time consuming. This is especially true since many application domains deal with hierarchically organized data. Forecasting in these environments is especially challenging due to ensuring forecasting consistency between hierarchy levels, which leads to an increased data processing and communication effort. For this purpose, we introduce our novel hierarchical forecasting approach, where we propose to push forecast models to the entities on the lowest hierarch level and reuse these models to efficiently create forecast models on higher hierarchical levels. With that we avoid the time-consuming parameter estimation process and allow an almost instant calculation of forecasts

Radially polarized passively mode-locked thin-disk laser oscillator emitting sub-picosecond pulses with an average output power exceeding the 100 W level

We report on a high-power passively mode-locked radially polarized Yb:YAG thin-disk oscillator providing 125 W of average output power. To the best of our knowledge, this is the highest average power ever reported from a mode-locked radially polarized oscillator without subsequent amplification stages. Mode-locking was achieved by implementing a SESAM as the cavity end mirror and the radial polarization of the LG*01 mode was obtained by means of a circular Grating Waveguide Output Coupler. The repetition rate was 78 MHz. A pulse duration of 0.97 ps and a spectral bandwidth of 1.4 nm (FWHM) were measured at the maximum output power. This corresponds to a pulse energy of 1.6 μJ and a pulse peak power of 1.45 MW. A high degree of radial polarization of 97.3 ± 1% and an M2-value of 2.16 which is close to the theoretical value for the LG*01 doughnut mode were measured

Risk for pelvic metastasis and role of pelvic lymphadenectomy in node-positive vulvar cancer - results from the AGO-VOP.2 QS vulva study

Simple Summary In node-positive vulvar squamous cell cancer, questions of when and how to perform pelvic lymphadenectomy (LAE) as well as the optimal extent of pelvic treatment in general have been surrounded by considerable controversy. In Germany, systematic pelvic LAE is currently recommended as a staging procedure in patients at risk for pelvic nodal involvement in order to prevent morbidity caused by pelvic radiotherapy (RT) in patients without histologically-confirmed pelvic involvement. However, the population at risk for pelvic metastases remains insufficiently described, resulting in the potential overtreatment of a considerable proportion of patients with groin-positive disease. This applies to the indication to perform surgical staging but also to adjuvant RT of the pelvis without previous pelvic staging. Our study aims to describe the risk for pelvic lymph node metastasis with regard to positive groin nodes and to clarify the indication criteria for pelvic treatment in node-positive vulvar cancer. Abstract The need for pelvic treatment in patients with node-positive vulvar cancer (VSCC) and the value of pelvic lymphadenectomy (LAE) as a staging procedure to plan adjuvant radiotherapy (RT) is controversial. In this retrospective, multicenter analysis, 306 patients with primary node-positive VSCC treated at 33 gynecologic oncology centers in Germany between 2017 and 2019 were analyzed. All patients received surgical staging of the groins; nodal status was as follows: 23.9% (73/306) pN1a, 23.5% (72/306) pN1b, 20.4% (62/306) pN2a/b, and 31.9% (97/306) pN2c/pN3. A total of 35.6% (109/306) received pelvic LAE; pelvic nodal involvement was observed in 18.5%. None of the patients with nodal status pN1a or pN1b and pelvic LAE showed pelvic nodal involvement. Taking only patients with nodal status ≥pN2a into account, the rate of pelvic involvement was 25%. In total, adjuvant RT was applied in 64.4% (197/306). Only half of the pelvic node-positive (N+) patients received adjuvant RT to the pelvis (50%, 10/20 patients); 41.9% (122/291 patients) experienced recurrent disease or died. In patients with histologically-confirmed pelvic metastases after LAE, distant recurrences were most frequently observed (7/20 recurrences). Conclusions: A relevant risk regarding pelvic nodal involvement was observed from nodal status pN2a and higher. Our data support the omission of pelvic treatment in patients with nodal status pN1a and pN1b

Empirische Forschung in der Deutschdidaktik. Band 2: Erhebungs- und Auswertungsverfahren

Was ist das richtige empirische Verfahren für mein Forschungsprojekt? Der vorliegende Band liefert eine einsteigerfrendliche, umfassende Einführung in die Erhebung und Auswertung empirischer Daten im Rahmen deutschdidaktischer Forschung. Hierbei werden in 21 thematischen Kapiteln verschiedene Erhebungs- und Auswertungsverfahren vorgestellt und anschließend ein Einblick in die praktische Arbeit mit diesem Verfahren anhand eines aktuellen Forschungsprojekts geboten. Ein Grundlagenwerk für Studierende und Promovierende