Are Retirement Savings Too Exposed to Market Risk?

The stock market, as measured by the broad-based Wilshire 5000, declined by 42 percent between its peak in October 9, 2007 and October 9, 2008. Over that one-year period, the value of equities in pension plans and household portfolios fell by $7.4 trillion. Of that$7.4 trillion decline, $2.0 trillion occurred in 401(k)s and Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs),$1.9 trillion in public and private defined benefit plans, and $3.6 trillion in household non-pension assets. This brief documents where the declines occurred. This information is interesting and important in its own right. But the declines also highlight the fragility of our emerging pension arrangements. Today the declines were divided equally between defined benefit and defined contribution plans, but in the future individuals will bear the full brunt of market turmoil as the shift to 401(k)s continues. Much of the reform discussion regarding private sector employer-sponsored pensions has focused on extending coverage. But the current financial tsunami also underlines the need to construct arrangements where the full market risk does not fall on pension participants.

Why Are Stocks So Risky?

With the decline in privately and publicly guaranteed benefits for pensions and health care, people increasingly must finance a greater share of their retirement expenses through their own savings. The relatively high long-term return on equity makes investments in stocks seem both an attractive and suitable means of accumulating the substantial wealth that savers will require. Yet, the 50 percent drop in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index from May 2008 to March 2009 is only the latest reminder that stocks pose considerable risk for investors. In the past, equity returns over periods as long as 10 or 20 years have diverged substantially from their long-term averages, tarnishing the appeal of stocks even as investments for the long run...

The Structure of 401(k) Fees

Increasingly, people are depending on 401(k) and similar defined contribution plans sponsored by their employers for their retirement income. As a result, participants in these plans also are paying more of their plans’ costs, ranging from administration and sales expenses to the cost of managing investments. These costs can take a substantial toll on retirement savings. Over a 30-year career, for example, paying an annual fee of 50 basis points can reduce the purchasing power of savings at the time of retirement by one-eighth. Employers who sponsor 401(k) plans have a fiduciary responsibility to ensure their plans’ fees are reasonable and communicated to participants. Recently, the Government Accountability Office reported that participants need more information and sponsors need to disclose this information more effectively to fulfill this responsibility. The Department of Labor is revising regulations to require sponsors to report the fees of their plans more clearly to their employees. Congress also has been holding hearings, inquiring if greater disclosure would help reduce costs within 401(k) plans...

Recessions and Older Workers

With the economy sliding ever deeper into recession, questions arise about how older workers are faring and how their fate relative to younger workers compares to the past. The answer to these questions turns out to be a little complicated. Two forces are at work. On the one hand, labor force participation among older workers has been rising since the early 1990s, a reversal of the long-standing trend toward ever-earlier retirement. Participation rates among older workers have even continued to rise during both of the recessions in this decade – a dramatic change from previous experience. On the other hand, the edge that older workers used to have relative to younger workers when it comes to layoffs seems to have disappeared, so the rise in the unemployment rate for older workers in recessions now looks similar to that for younger workers. Of the two forces, the trend growth in labor force participation appears to dominate, which has helped keep the employment rate of older workers from falling during the current recession. This pattern contrasts sharply with the far more typical decline in employment rates for workers under age 55. This brief is organized as follows. The first section discusses the upward trend in the labor force participation of older men. The second section explores why older men may have lost some of their edge with regard to job security. The third section looks at how these two developments – the secular upward trend in labor force participation and the heightened vulnerability to layoffs relative to younger workers – have affected the employment rates of older men in this recession compared to earlier ones. The fourth section concludes.

Long-term Care Costs and The National Retirement Risk Index

Even if households work to age 65 and annuitize all their financial assets, including the receipts from reverse mortgages on their homes, the National Retirement Risk Index (NRRI) has shown that 44 percent will be ‘at risk.’ ‘At risk’ means they will be unable to maintain their standard of living in retirement. When health care costs were included explicitly, the percentage of households ‘at risk’ increased to 61 percent. Our previous analysis of health care costs, however, did not consider possible expenses for long-term care towards the end of life. This brief explores how the need for long-term care could affect the NRRI. This brief is structured as follows. The first section recaps the original NRRI and the NRRI with health care costs explicitly included. The second section describes the nature of long-term care, the likelihood of a household member needing such care, and the financing alternatives available. The third section explores how the challenge posed by long-term care is different for households of different types and wealth levels. The fourth section models the impact of long-term care on the NRRI. The final section concludes.

An Update on 401(k) Plans: Insights From the 2007 SCF

The maturation of the 401(k) system and the enactment of the Pension Protection Act of 2006, which made 401(k) plans easier and more automatic, were expected to enhance the role that 401(k)s played in the provision of retirement income. So, originally, the release of the Federal Reserve’s 2007 Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) seemed like a great opportunity to re-assess 401(k)s. The SCF is a triennial survey of a nationally representative sample of U.S. households, which collects detailed information on households’ assets, liabilities, and demographic characteristics. Of course, the 2007 SCF reflects a world that no longer exists. Interviews were conducted during the late summer and early fall when the Dow Jones was at 14,000 (the peak was October 9, 2007) and housing prices were only slightly off their peak. While the economic crisis had already begun, its effects were not yet visible. Since the time of the interviews, the stock market has imploded, reducing the value of equities in 401(k) and IRAs by about $2 trillion. Housing prices have fallen by 20 percent. And the crisis has spread to the real economy, throwing 3.6 million people out of work...