Projected marine heatwaves in the 21st century and the potential for ecological impact

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are extreme climatic events in oceanic systems that can have devastating impacts on ecosystems, causing abrupt ecological changes and socioeconomic consequences. Several prominent MHWs have attracted scientific and public interest, and recent assessments have documented global and regional increases in their frequency. However, for proactive marine management, it is critical to understand how patterns might change in the future. Here, we estimate future changes in MHWs to the end of the 21st century, as simulated by the CMIP5 global climate model projections. Significant increases in MHW intensity and count of annual MHW days are projected to accelerate, with many parts of the ocean reaching a near-permanent MHW state by the late 21st century. The two greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios considered (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5) strongly affect the projected intensity of MHW events, the proportion of the globe exposed to permanent MHW states, and the occurrence of the most extreme MHW events. Comparison with simulations of a natural world, without anthropogenic forcing, indicate that these trends have emerged from the expected range of natural variability within the first half of the 21st century. This discrepancy implies a degree of “anthropogenic emergence,” with a departure from the natural MHW conditions that have previously shaped marine ecosystems for centuries or even millennia. Based on these projections we expect impacts on marine ecosystems to be widespread, significant and persistent through the 21st century.This research was supported by the Australian Research Council grants CE170100023 and FT170100106, Natural Environment Research Council International Opportunity Fund NE/N00678X/1, National Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada Discovery Grant RGPIN-2018-05255, and Brian Mason (Impacts of an unprecedented marine heatwave). This project was partially supported through funding from the Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub of the Australian Government’s National Environmental Science Program.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Expanding the Y Dwarf Census with Spitzer Follow-up of the Coldest CatWISE Solar Neighborhood Discoveries

We present Spitzer 3.6 and 4.5 μm follow-up of 170 candidate extremely cool brown dwarfs newly discovered via the combination of Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) and NEOWISE imaging at 3–5 μm. CatWISE, a joint analysis of archival WISE and NEOWISE data, has improved upon the motion measurements of AllWISE by leveraging a >10× time baseline enhancement, from 0.5 yr (AllWISE) to 6.5 yr (CatWISE). As a result, CatWISE motion selection has yielded a large sample of previously unrecognized brown dwarf candidates, many of which have archival detections exclusively in the WISE 4.6 μm (W2) channel, suggesting that they could be both exceptionally cold and nearby. Where these objects go undetected in WISE W1 (3.4 μm), Spitzer can provide critically informative detections at 3.6 μm. Of our motion-confirmed discoveries, 17 have a best-fit Spitzer [3.6]–[4.5] color most consistent with spectral type Y. It is likely that CWISEP J144606.62–231717.8 (μ ≈ 1.”3 yr⁻¹) is the reddest, and therefore potentially coldest, member of our sample with a very uncertain [3.6]–[4.5] color of 3.71 ± 0.44 mag. We also highlight our highest proper-motion discovery, WISEA J153429.75–104303.3, with μ ≈ 2.”7 yr⁻¹. Given that the prior list of confirmed and presumed Y dwarfs consists of just 27 objects, the Spitzer follow-up presented in this work has substantially expanded the sample of identified Y dwarfs. Our new discoveries thus represent significant progress toward understanding the bottom of the substellar mass function, investigating the diversity of the Y dwarf population, and selecting optimal brown dwarf targets for James Webb Space Telescope spectroscopy

A global assessment of marine heatwaves and their drivers

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) can cause devastating impacts to marine life. Despite the serious consequences of MHWs, our understanding of their drivers is largely based on isolated case studies rather than any systematic unifying assessment. Here we provide the first global assessment under a consistent framework by combining a confidence assessment of the historical refereed literature from 1950 to February 2016, together with the analysis of MHWs determined from daily satellite sea surface temperatures from 1982–2016, to identify the important local processes, large-scale climate modes and teleconnections that are associated with MHWs regionally. Clear patterns emerge, including coherent relationships between enhanced or suppressed MHW occurrences with the dominant climate modes across most regions of the globe – an important exception being western boundary current regions where reports of MHW events are few and ocean-climate relationships are complex. These results provide a global baseline for future MHW process and prediction studies

WISEA J083011.95+283716.0: A Missing Link Planetary-Mass Object

We present the discovery of WISEA J083011.95+283716.0, the first Y dwarf candidate identified through the Backyard Worlds: Planet 9 citizen science project. We identified this object as a red, fast-moving source with a faint $W2$ detection in multi-epoch \textit{AllWISE} and unWISE images. We have characterized this object with Spitzer Space Telescope and \textit{Hubble Space Telescope} follow-up imaging. With mid-infrared detections in \textit{Spitzer}'s \emph{ch1} and \emph{ch2} bands and flux upper limits in Hubble Space Telescope $F105W$ and $F125W$ filters, we find that this object is both very faint and has extremely red colors ($ch1-ch2 = 3.25\pm0.23$ mag, $F125W-ch2 \geq 9.36$ mag), consistent with a T$_{eff}\sim300$ K source, as estimated from the known Y dwarf population. A preliminary parallax provides a distance of $11.1^{+2.0}_{-1.5}$ pc, leading to a slightly warmer temperature of $\sim350$ K. The extreme faintness and red Hubble Space Telescope and Spitzer Space Telescope colors of this object suggest it may be a link between the broader Y dwarf population and the coldest known brown dwarf WISE J0855$-$0714, and highlight our limited knowledge of the true spread of Y dwarf colors. We also present four additional Backyard Worlds: Planet 9 late-T brown dwarf discoveries within 30 pc.Comment: 13 pages, 6 figures, 5 table

Marine heatwaves threaten global biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services

The global ocean has warmed substantially over the past century, with far-reaching implications for marine ecosystems 1 . Concurrent with long-term persistent warming, discrete periods of extreme regional ocean warming (marine heatwaves, MHWs) have increased in frequency 2 . Here we quantify trends and attributes of MHWs across all ocean basins and examine their biological impacts from species to ecosystems. Multiple regions in the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans are particularly vulnerable to MHW intensification, due to the co-existence of high levels of biodiversity, a prevalence of species found at their warm range edges or concurrent non-climatic human impacts. The physical attributes of prominent MHWs varied considerably, but all had deleterious impacts across a range of biological processes and taxa, including critical foundation species (corals, seagrasses and kelps). MHWs, which will probably intensify with anthropogenic climate change 3 , are rapidly emerging as forceful agents of disturbance with the capacity to restructure entire ecosystems and disrupt the provision of ecological goods and services in coming decades. © 2019, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited

WISEA J083011.95+283716.0: A Missing Link Planetary-mass Object

We present the discovery of WISEA J083011.95+283716.0, the first Y-dwarf candidate identified through the "Backyard Worlds: Planet 9" citizen science project. We identified this object as a red, fast-moving source with a faint W2 detection in multiepoch AllWISE and unWISE images. We have characterized this object with Spitzer and Hubble Space Telescope's (HST) follow-up imaging. With mid-infrared detections in Spitzer's ch1 and ch2 bands and flux upper limits in HST F105W and F125W filters, we find that this object is both very faint and has extremely red colors (ch1 − ch2 = 3.25 ± 0.23 mag, F125W − ch2 ≥ 9.36 mag), consistent with a T_(eff) ~ 300 K source, as estimated from the known Y-dwarf population. A preliminary parallax provides a distance of 11.1_(-1.5)^(+2.0) pc, leading to a slightly warmer temperature of ~350 K. The extreme faintness and red HST and Spitzer colors of this object suggest that it may be a link between the broader Y-dwarf population and the coldest known brown dwarf WISE J0855−0714, and may highlight our limited knowledge of the true spread of Y-dwarf colors. We also present four additional "Backyard Worlds: Planet 9" late-T brown dwarf discoveries within 30 pc

Drivers and impacts of the most extreme marine heatwaves events

© The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Sen Gupta, A., Thomsen, M., Benthuysen, J. A., Hobday, A. J., Oliver, E., Alexander, L. V., Burrows, M. T., Donat, M. G., Feng, M., Holbrook, N. J., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S., Moore, P. J., Rodrigues, R. R., Scannell, H. A., Taschetto, A. S., Ummenhofer, C. C., Wernberg, T., & Smale, D. A. Drivers and impacts of the most extreme marine heatwaves events. Scientific Reports, 10(1), (2020): 19359. doi:10.1038/s41598-020-75445-3.Prolonged high-temperature extreme events in the ocean, marine heatwaves, can have severe and long-lasting impacts on marine ecosystems, fisheries and associated services. This study applies a marine heatwave framework to analyse a global sea surface temperature product and identify the most extreme events, based on their intensity, duration and spatial extent. Many of these events have yet to be described in terms of their physical attributes, generation mechanisms, or ecological impacts. Our synthesis identifies commonalities between marine heatwave characteristics and seasonality, links to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, triggering processes and impacts on ocean productivity. The most intense events preferentially occur in summer, when climatological oceanic mixed layers are shallow and winds are weak, but at a time preceding climatological maximum sea surface temperatures. Most subtropical extreme marine heatwaves were triggered by persistent atmospheric high-pressure systems and anomalously weak wind speeds, associated with increased insolation, and reduced ocean heat losses. Furthermore, the most extreme events tended to coincide with reduced chlorophyll-a concentration at low and mid-latitudes. Understanding the importance of the oceanic background state, local and remote drivers and the ocean productivity response from past events are critical steps toward improving predictions of future marine heatwaves and their impacts.Concepts and analyses were developed during three workshops organized by an international working group on marine heatwaves (https://www.marineheatwaves.org) funded by a University of Western Australia Research Collaboration Award and a Natural Environment Research Council (UK) International Opportunity Fund (NE/N00678X/1). D.A.S. is supported by a UKRI Future Leaders Fellowship (MR/S032827/1). The Australian Research Council supported T.W. (FT110100174 and DP170100023) and A.S.T. (FT160100495). N.J.H. and L.V.A. are supported by the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CE170100023). M.S.T was supported by the Brian Mason Trust. P.J.M. is supported by a Marie Curie Career Integration Grant (PCIG10-GA-2011–303685) and a Natural Environment Research Council (UK) Grant (NE/J024082/1). E.C.J.O. was supported by National Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) Discovery Grant RGPIN-2018-05255 and Marine Environmental Observation, Prediction and Response Network (MEOPAR) project 1-02-02-059.1. C.C.U. acknowledges financial support through the Early Career Scientist Endowed Fund, George E. Thibault Early Career Scientist Fund, and The Joint Initiative Awards Fund from the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation at WHOI. M.G.D. received funding by the Spanish Ministry for the Economy, Industry and Competitiveness Ramón y Cajal 2017 grant reference RYC-2017-22964. NOAA High Resolution SST data provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site at https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/