Cool-edge populations of the kelp Ecklonia radiata under global ocean change scenarios:strong sensitivity to ocean warming but little effect of ocean acidification

Kelp forests are threatened by ocean warming, yet effects of co-occurring drivers such as CO2 are rarely considered when predicting their performance in the future. In Australia, the kelp Ecklonia radiata forms extensive forests across seawater temperatures of approximately 7-26°C. Cool-edge populations are typically considered more thermally tolerant than their warm-edge counterparts but this ignores the possibility of local adaptation. Moreover, it is unknown whether elevated CO2 can mitigate negative effects of warming. To identify whether elevated CO2 could improve thermal performance of a cool-edge population of E. radiata, we constructed thermal performance curves for growth and photosynthesis, under both current and elevated CO2 (approx. 400 and 1000 µatm). We then modelled annual performance under warming scenarios to highlight thermal susceptibility. Elevated CO2 had minimal effect on growth but increased photosynthesis around the thermal optimum. Thermal optima were approximately 16°C for growth and approximately 18°C for photosynthesis, and modelled performance indicated cool-edge populations may be vulnerable in the future. Our findings demonstrate that elevated CO2 is unlikely to offset negative effects of ocean warming on the kelp E. radiata and highlight the potential susceptibility of cool-edge populations to ocean warming.</p

Effects of temperature and microbial disruption on juvenile kelp Ecklonia radiata and its associated bacterial community

Ocean warming can affect the development and physiological responses of kelps, and under future climate change scenarios, increasing seawater temperatures pose a major threat to these habitat-forming species. However, little is known about the effects of warming on epiphytic bacterial communities and how an altered microbiome may interact with temperature stress, affecting the condition and survival of kelp, particularly of the potentially more vulnerable early life stages. Here, we tested the effects of thermal stress on the growth and physiological responses of juvenile kelp Ecklonia radiata in which their epiphytic bacterial community was experimentally disrupted using antimicrobials, simulating dysbiosis. We hypothesized that, under thermal stress (23°C, simulating a extreme scenario of ocean warming in Tasmania), kelp with a disrupted bacterial community would be more strongly affected than kelp with an undisrupted microbiome or kelp under ambient temperature (14°C) but with a disrupted microbiota. Thermal stress reduced growth, increased tissue bleaching and negatively affected net photosynthesis of kelp. In addition, a substantial change in the epiphytic bacterial community structure was also found under thermal stress conditions, with an increase in the abundance of potentially pathogenic bacterial groups. However, microbial disruption did not act synergistically with thermal stress to affect kelp juveniles. These results suggest that effects of elevated temperature on juvenile kelps is not microbially-mediated and that juveniles may be less susceptible to disruptions of their microbiome

The relationship between alcohol use and long-term cognitive decline in middle and late life: a longitudinal analysis using UK Biobank

Background Using UK Biobank data, this study sought to explain the causal relationship between alcohol intake and cognitive decline in middle and older aged populations. Methods Data from 13 342 men and women, aged between 40 and 73 years were used in regression analysis that tested the functional relationship and impact of alcohol on cognitive performance. Performance was measured using mean reaction time (RT) and intra-individual variation (IIV) in RT, collected in response to a perceptual matching task. Covariates included body mass index, physical activity, tobacco use, socioeconomic status, education and baseline cognitive function. Results A restricted cubic spline regression with three knots showed how the linear (β1 = −0.048, 95% CI: −0.105 to −0.030) and non-linear effects (β2 = 0.035, 95% CI: 0.007–0.059) of alcohol use on mean RT and IIV in RT (β1 = −0.055, 95% CI: −0.125 to −0.034; β2 = 0.034, 95% CI: 0.002–0.064) were significant adjusting for covariates. Cognitive function declined as alcohol use increased beyond 10 g/day. Decline was more apparent as age increased. Conclusions The relationship between alcohol use and cognitive function is non-linear. Consuming more than one UK standard unit of alcohol per day is detrimental to cognitive performance and is more pronounced in older populations

Applying OR to problem situations within community organisations: a case in a Danish non-profit, member-driven food cooperative

This paper focuses on how the use of Community OR (COR), specifically Systems Thinking (ST) and the Viable System Model (VSM) can help in addressing complex and uncertain problem situations within community organisations, in particular Alternative Food Networks (AFNs). Literature has highlighted the importance and benefits of AFNs, but also the complexity and uncertainty underpinning the majority of AFN related problem situations that limit decision making and strategic planning and threaten the long-term sustainability of AFNs. To address this issue, we discuss the use of ST via a VSM intervention within a member-driven food cooperative in Copenhagen, Denmark, and the changes in decision making and the organisational structure of the cooperative. We illustrate the application of the VSM and in particular the methodology for organisational self-transformation within ‘localist green communitarianism’ and ‘nonprofit management’ to tackle issues, enhance democratic and participative decision making, and changes in the organisational structure that foster coordination and cohesion. The implications for COR and Soft OR, limitations and future research directions are also provided

Unveiling school effectiveness: Progress 8, parental choices and closing the achievement gap

We show that Progress 8 is a reliable measure of school effectiveness and that parents often do not apply to their most effective local school

Exploiting discontinuities in secondary school attendance to evaluate value added

We use a new empirical strategy to test various measures of school effectiveness in England. Our approach exploits discontinuities in attendance probabilities that occur at unpredictable distance cutoffs used as tiebreakers in admissions processes for oversubscribed schools. We show that raw, unadjusted test score outcomes of schools are biased estimators of school effectiveness due to sorting of certain types of students into certain types of schools. Controlling for basic background characteristics (but not prior attainment) does not change this result. On the other hand, we cannot reject the hypothesis that simple value added models which adjust school test scores for difference in the prior attainment of their intake produce unbiased effectiveness estimates. This includes "Progress 8", the measure of value added that has been used in England since 2016, suggesting the measure accurately captures the true effect of schools on pupils' GCSE attainment. Adding additional background controls does not invalidate the estimates, but it does not improve precision either. Finally, we combine our unbiased estimator of effectiveness with data on secondary school applications to show that parents often do not put the most effective school in their local area down as their first choice school. This is particularly true for parents from poorer households, suggesting SES gaps in access to good schools could be narrowed through changes to school application patterns

Safe in My Garden: Reduction of Mainstream Flow and Turbulence by Macroalgal Assemblages and Implications for Refugia of Calcifying Organisms From Ocean Acidification

Macroalgae, with their various morphologies, are ubiquitous throughout the world’s oceans and provide ecosystem services to a multitude of organisms. Water motion is a fundamental physical parameter controlling the mass transfer of dissolved carbon and nutrients to and from the macroalgal surface, but measurements of flow speed and turbulence within and above macroalgal canopies are lacking. This information is becoming increasingly important as macroalgal canopies may act as refugia for calcifying organisms from ocean acidification (OA); and the extent to which they act as refugia is driven by water motion. Here we report on a field campaign to assess the flow speed and turbulence within and above natural macroalgal canopies at two depths (3 and 6 m) and two sites (Ninepin Point and Tinderbox) in Tasmania, Australia in relation to the canopy height and % cover of functional forms. Filamentous groups made up the greatest proportion (75%) at both sites and depth while foliose groups were more prevalent at 3 than at 6 m. Irrespective of background flows, depth or site, flow speeds within the canopies were &lt;0.03 m s–1 – a ∼90% reduction in flow speeds compared to above the canopy. Turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) within the canopies was up to two orders of magnitude lower (&lt;0.008 m2 s–2) than above the canopies, with higher levels of TKE within the canopy at 3 compared to 6 m. The significant damping effect of flow and turbulence by macroalgae highlights the potential of these ecosystems to provide a refugia for vulnerable calcifying species to OA

Experimental results for Ecklonia radiata growth and in situ incubation experiments and in situ measurements of pH within E. radiata beds in south eastern Tasmania

Ocean acidification (OA) is the reduction in seawater pH due to the absorption of human-released CO2 by the world's oceans. The average surface oceanic pH is predicted to decline by 0.4 units by 2100. However, kelp metabolically modifies seawater pH via photosynthesis and respiration in some temperate coastal systems, resulting in daily pH fluctuations of up to ±0.45 units. It is unknown how these fluctuations in pH influence the growth and physiology of the kelp, or how this might change with OA. In laboratory experiments that mimicked the most extreme pH fluctuations measured within beds of the canopy-forming kelp Ecklonia radiata in Tasmania, the growth and photosynthetic rates of juvenile E. radiata were greater under fluctuating pH (8.4 in the day, 7.8 at night) than in static pH treatments (8.4, 8.1, 7.8). However, pH fluctuations had no effect on growth rates and a negative effect on photosynthesis when the mean pH of each treatment was reduced by 0.3 units. Currently, pH fluctuations have a positive effect on E. radiata but this effect could be reversed in the future under OA, which is likely to impact the future ecological dynamics and productivity of habitats dominated by E. radiata