Exchange rate volatility and noise traders: Currency Transaction Tax as an eviction device

The aim of the paper is to identify the impact of the currency transaction tax on the foreign exchange structure and thus its impact on exchange rate volatility. In a noise trading framework a la Jeanne and Rose (2002), we explain that the exchange rate volatility depends on fundamentals volatility and extra volatility due to the behaviour of noise traders. The exchange rate volatility is lower after introducing a Currency Transaction Tax as it increases the entry cost of noise traders and influences the range of possible equilibria. While there are multiple equilibria of exchange rate volatility without Currency Tax, there are only two aggregate exchange rate volatility corner equilibria after introducing a CTT. One of them is a low exchange rate volatility equilibrium. Moreover, we prove analytically the existence of an optimal tax rate for which the exchange rate volatility depends solely on fundamentals variance. In this case, few noise traders enter the market and there is consequently a low excess volatility.

Wealth effects: the French case.

This paper studies the relationship between consumption and wealth based on the concept of cointegration. The analysis focuses on French data over the 1987 - 2006 period. This relationship is expressed in two ways: in terms of Marginal Propensity to Consume out of wealth (MPC) and in terms of Elasticity of consumption to wealth. Three concepts of consumption are investigated: total households consumption expenditure, consumption excluding financial services and consumption excluding durable goods. Different estimators are also considered. Based on the MPC approach, when considered as permanent by households, an increase (decrease) in total wealth of one euro would lead to an increase (decrease) of 1 cent in total consumption. In terms of elasticity, an increase (de- crease) of 10% in wealth would imply also a relatively small impact of 0.8 to 1.1% on consumption depending on the concept of consumption considered. In most cases, the effect of a change in financial wealth is bigger than of a change in housing wealth. The results indicate that the wealth effects are smaller in France than in the UK and US but close to what is observed in Italy. In addition, any deviation of the variables from their common trends is corrected at first by adjustments in disposable income in line with what has been uncovered by studies on Germany and consistent with the "saving for the rainy days" approach of Campbell (1987). But our results contrast with the seminal study of Lettau and Ludvigson (2004) in the US where asset prices make the bulk of the adjustment.consumption, wealth effect, France.

The environmental resource curse hypothesis: the forest case

The resource curse hypothesis relies on the resource-rich countries tendency to grow slower than resource-poor countries. Focusing on forest issues, this paper extends the resource curse hypothesis to environmental degradation: how do forest endowment and forest harvesting affect deforestation? Our empirical results show that countries with important forest cover and forestry sectors seem to deforest more than others, which supports the hypothesis of an environmental resource curse. Moreover, countries implied in important timber certification processes have lower deforestation levels.resource curse, tropical forest, deforestation

Misalignments and Dynamics of Real Exchange Rates in the CFA Franc Zone

In this paper, we analyse currencies' misalignments of the CFA zone countries and the adjustment process of their real effective exchange rates towards their equilibrium level over the period 1985-2007. To this end, we firstly estimate, using panel cointegration techniques, a long term relationship between the real effective exchange rate and economic fundamentals. Secondly, we estimate a panel smooth transition error correction model in order to take into account non linearities in the convergence process of real exchange rates towards their equilibrium level. Two main results emerge from our analysis. Firstly, the real appreciation of effective exchange rates in the CFA zone countries from the 2000s did not translate, in 2007, into a real overvaluation comparable to that occurring before the devaluation of the CFA franc in 1994. However, some countries are exceptions, indicating a strong heterogeneity within the CFA zone. Finally, the convergence process of real effective exchange rates towards their equilibrium level also differs substantially between country groups. These results tend to show the difficulty to apply a single exchange rate policy in the CFA zone and rather call for further coordination and policy harmonization between the countries.CFA zone, misalignments, panel smooth transition model

Goltzberg, Stefan. 2013. Perelman. L’argumentation juridique (Paris : Michalon, coll. Le bien commun)

L’année de la commémoration du centenaire de la naissance de Perelman a donné lieu à de nombreuses publications. Stefan Goltzberg, qui est à la fois linguiste et chercheur en philosophie du droit a fait paraître un « ouvrage d’explication de l’argumentation juridique », destiné plus particulièrement aux apprentis juristes. La formation en Droit s’attache en effet souvent à décrire de manière anhistorique et souvent non critique l’argumentation juridique dans le but de donner des outils aux ét..

What does it take to grow out of recession? An error-correction approach towards growth convergence of European and transition countries

URL des Documents de travail : http://ces.univ-paris1.fr/cesdp/cesdp2016.htmlDocuments de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 2016.41 - ISSN : 1955-611XConsequences from the subsiding 2008 financial crisis on long-run economic growth are widely debated. Existing literature on previous recessions, such as Cerra and Saxena (2008), emphasizes the long-term loss inflicted on per capita GDP levels. This paper concentrates on typical business cycles in advanced European and transition countries and assumes that lower than normal growth during recessions is followed by a recovery period with above normal growth until the economy reaches its pre-crisis level. The objective is to assess the capacity to rebound, the speed of convergence towards a normal growth path as well as potential nonlinearities. Through exploiting the cointegration relationships among variables in long-run growth regressions and by employing a variety of panel error-correction models, results show a strong evidence of error-correction and different linear speed in the convergence process with the transition economies outpacing Western European countries. Our analysis is further extended into a Panel Smooth Transition Error-Correction Model (PSTR-ECM) to account for different regimes in convergence patterns according to a selection of transition variables. Whereas the velocity of convergence for European core countries exhibits a nonlinear pattern and differs with respect to price and flexibility, transition countries remain linear in their return to the growth trend. Ultimately, our results suggest that internal adjustments remain the key factors for both European and transition countries to recover from negative economic growth shocks

Natural resource curse: a non linear approach in a panel of oil exporting countries

This paper explores the idea of regime switching as a new methodological approach to bring new insights into the natural resource curse hypothesis in the case of oil exporting countries. The basic idea is that when a threshold of oil dependence is passed, the relationship between economic growth and its determinants could move smoothly from a regime to another. Relying upon the estimation of a PSTR model, our findings offer strong evidence that oil revenues non-linearly impacts economic growth and that resource curse only exists under the condition of high oil dependence. More precisely, below the level of 51% of oil dependence, oil revenues have a positive impact on economic growth, whereas above this level, it have serious drawbacks on economic growth through inefficiencies into the quality and the quantity of government expenditures

Natural resource curse: a non linear approach in a panel of oil exporting countries

This paper explores the idea of regime switching as a new methodological approach to bring new insights into the natural resource curse hypothesis in the case of oil exporting countries. The basic idea is that when a threshold of oil dependence is passed, the relationship between economic growth and its determinants could move smoothly from a regime to another. Relying upon the estimation of a PSTR model, our findings offer strong evidence that oil revenues non-linearly impacts economic growth and that resource curse only exists under the condition of high oil dependence. More precisely, below the level of 51% of oil dependence, oil revenues have a positive impact on economic growth, whereas above this level, it have serious drawbacks on economic growth through inefficiencies into the quality and the quantity of government expenditures

Currency Transaction Tax Elasticity: an Econometric Estimation

This article endeavours to measure the elasticity of the volume of the currency exchange transactions to a tax on them. The analysis is principally based on cointegration techniques. This paper is the first attempt to estimate the influence of a currency transaction tax on the foreign exchange market volume trading. The econometric estimations suggest that the forex trading volume could be significantly reduced by a Tobin tax. Nevertheless, elasticities are heterogeneous with respect to the currency pairs: the largest elasticities are the euro/dollar and sterling/dollar currency pairs that are also the most traded exchange parities. The values of the estimates are lower when the SURE (Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations) estimator is used than when the panel estimation is implemented

The Growth Effects of El Nino and La Nina: Local Weather Conditions Matter

This paper contributes to the climate-economy literature by analysing the role of weather patterns in influencing the transmission of global climate cycles to economic growth. More specifically, we focus on El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and their interactions with local weather conditions, taking into account the heterogeneous and cumulative effects of weather patterns on economic growth and the asymmetry and nonlinearity in the global influence of ENSO on economic activity. Using data on 75 countries over the period 1975-2014, we provide evidence for the negative growth effects of ENSO events and show that there are substantial differences between its warm (El Nino) and cold (La Nina) phases and between climate zones. These differences are due to the heterogeneity in weather responses to ENSO events, known as teleconnections, which has so far not been taken into account by economists, and which will become more important in the climate-economy relationship given that climate change may substantially strengthen long-distance relationships between weather patterns around the world. We also show that the negative growth effects associated with these teleconnections are robust to the definition of ENSO events and more important over shorter meteorological onsets