A Composite Leading Indicator of Tunisian Inflation

This paper investigates the possibility of constructing a composite leading indicator (CLI) of Tunisian inflation. For doing so, partial information about future inflation rate provided by a number of basic series is analyzed first. Based on the correlation analysis, a few of these basic series are chosen for construction of composite indicator. Empirical results show that the deviation from long‐term trend of two monetary aggregates (M1 and M3), short‐term interest rate (TMM), real effective exchange rate and crude petroleum production, are important leading indicators for inflation rate in Tunisia. Accordingly, based on monthly data on these basic series, one composite indicator is constructed and its performance is assessed by using turning point analysis, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions. The results indicate that our composite indicator is useful in anticipating changes in inflation rates in Tunisia.Tunisia, Inflation, Leading indicators, Composite index

The Choice of Exchange Rate Regimes in the MENA Countries: a Probit Analysis

This paper analysis the choice of exchange regimes of 17 economies in the MENA region for the period 1990-2000. For this purpose we use both de jure and de facto regime classifications and estimate a series of binomial and multinomial probit models. Regressions results highlight the important influence of economic development and international reserve levels on exchange regime selection.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/64398/1/wp899.pd

Tunisia: Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations

Using structural VARs identified with long-run restrictions, this paper evaluates the importance of nominal shocks and real disturbances on the Tunisian Dinar during the nineties. The estimated macroeconomic behaviour in response to the shocks identified with a Clarida and Gali–type structural VAR for Tunisia is generally in line with theoretical priors stemming from the Mundell-Fleming model. The structural decomposition shows that relative real demand and supply shocks account for most of the variations in real exchange rate changes during the estimation period and indicates that real disturbances explain about 80% of the variance of the forecast error of the real exchange rate.Tunisia, real exchange rate, structural VAR

Tunisia: Sources Of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations

Using structural VARs identified with long-run restrictions, this paper evaluates the importance of nominal shocks and real disturbances on the Tunisian Dinar during the nineties. The estimated macroeconomic behaviour in response to the shocks identified with a Clarida and Gali–type structural VAR for Tunisia is generally in line with theoretical priors stemming from the Mundell-Fleming model. The structural decomposition shows that relative real demand and supply shocks account for most of the variations in real exchange rate changes during the estimation period and indicates that real disturbances explain about 80% of the variance of the forecast error of the real exchange rate.Tunisia; real exchange rate; structural VAR

Determinants of Exchange Rate Practices in the MENA Countries: Some Further Empirical Results

This paper analyses the determinants of exchange rate practices in 15 MENA countries for the 1977- 2007 period placing special emphasis on structural and macroeconomic explanations. We use three different exchange rate regime classifications in order to avoid potentially misleading specification. Even though the empirical results using the de facto classifications are very different from those obtained from the de jure specification, we find that international reserves play a major role in determining exchange rate practices in the MENA countries.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/64374/1/wp952.pd

Régimes de change: Le chemin vers la flexibilité

Nous cherchons dans le sillage de travaux tels que Agénor (2004) ou Duttagupta et al (2004) à identifier les principales conditions que doit remplir au préalable une économie avant l’adoption d’un régime de flottement pur du taux de change. Ces dernières englobent le développement du marché des changes, la mise en place d’une nouvelle stratégie de politique monétaire et d’une ancre nominale crédible et le développement du système financier

Le choix du régime de change pour les économies émergentes

Ce papier revoit la problématique du choix d’un régime de change pour les économies émergentes. Nous revoyons la littérature théorique et empirique sur la question en attachant une attention particulière à l’évolution des régimes de change (éventuelle disparition des régimes intermédiaires) et aux performances macroéconomiques des différents régimes de l’éventail allant de la fixité rigide au flottement. Notre analyse tend à confirmer l’hypothèse de Frankel (1999) « qu’aucun régime de change ne serait universel ou éternel

Tunisia: Sources Of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations

Using structural VARs identified with long-run restrictions, this paper evaluates the importance of nominal shocks and real disturbances on the Tunisian Dinar during the nineties. The estimated macroeconomic behaviour in response to the shocks identified with a Clarida and Gali–type structural VAR for Tunisia is generally in line with theoretical priors stemming from the Mundell-Fleming model. The structural decomposition shows that relative real demand and supply shocks account for most of the variations in real exchange rate changes during the estimation period and indicates that real disturbances explain about 80% of the variance of the forecast error of the real exchange rate

Le choix du régime de change pour les économies émergentes

Ce papier revoit la problématique du choix d’un régime de change pour les économies émergentes. Nous revoyons la littérature théorique et empirique sur la question en attachant une attention particulière à l’évolution des régimes de change (éventuelle disparition des régimes intermédiaires) et aux performances macroéconomiques des différents régimes de l’éventail allant de la fixité rigide au flottement. Notre analyse tend à confirmer l’hypothèse de Frankel (1999) « qu’aucun régime de change ne serait universel ou éternel

Régimes de change: Le chemin vers la flexibilité

Nous cherchons dans le sillage de travaux tels que Agénor (2004) ou Duttagupta et al (2004) à identifier les principales conditions que doit remplir au préalable une économie avant l’adoption d’un régime de flottement pur du taux de change. Ces dernières englobent le développement du marché des changes, la mise en place d’une nouvelle stratégie de politique monétaire et d’une ancre nominale crédible et le développement du système financier