More than smell - COVID-19 is associated with severe impairment of smell, taste, and chemesthesis

Recent anecdotal and scientific reports have provided evidence of a link between COVID-19 and chemosensory impairments, such as anosmia. However, these reports have downplayed or failed to distinguish potential effects on taste, ignored chemesthesis, and generally lacked quantitative measurements. Here, we report the development, implementation, and initial results of a multilingual, international questionnaire to assess self-reported quantity and quality of perception in 3 distinct chemosensory modalities (smell, taste, and chemesthesis) before and during COVID-19. In the first 11 days after questionnaire launch, 4039 participants (2913 women, 1118 men, and 8 others, aged 19-79) reported a COVID-19 diagnosis either via laboratory tests or clinical assessment. Importantly, smell, taste, and chemesthetic function were each significantly reduced compared to their status before the disease. Difference scores (maximum possible change ±100) revealed a mean reduction of smell (-79.7 ± 28.7, mean ± standard deviation), taste (-69.0 ± 32.6), and chemesthetic (-37.3 ± 36.2) function during COVID-19. Qualitative changes in olfactory ability (parosmia and phantosmia) were relatively rare and correlated with smell loss. Importantly, perceived nasal obstruction did not account for smell loss. Furthermore, chemosensory impairments were similar between participants in the laboratory test and clinical assessment groups. These results show that COVID-19-associated chemosensory impairment is not limited to smell but also affects taste and chemesthesis. The multimodal impact of COVID-19 and the lack of perceived nasal obstruction suggest that severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus strain 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection may disrupt sensory-neural mechanisms. © 2020 The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Accurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios. Methods: To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10–54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline. Findings: During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1—canonically considered replacement-level fertility—in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7–29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6–43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1–59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions—decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7–25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3–19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4–10·1) in 2100—but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction. Interpretation: Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Convalescent plasma in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 (RECOVERY): a randomised controlled, open-label, platform trial

Background: Many patients with COVID-19 have been treated with plasma containing anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. We aimed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of convalescent plasma therapy in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19. Methods: This randomised, controlled, open-label, platform trial (Randomised Evaluation of COVID-19 Therapy [RECOVERY]) is assessing several possible treatments in patients hospitalised with COVID-19 in the UK. The trial is underway at 177 NHS hospitals from across the UK. Eligible and consenting patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive either usual care alone (usual care group) or usual care plus high-titre convalescent plasma (convalescent plasma group). The primary outcome was 28-day mortality, analysed on an intention-to-treat basis. The trial is registered with ISRCTN, 50189673, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04381936. Findings: Between May 28, 2020, and Jan 15, 2021, 11558 (71%) of 16287 patients enrolled in RECOVERY were eligible to receive convalescent plasma and were assigned to either the convalescent plasma group or the usual care group. There was no significant difference in 28-day mortality between the two groups: 1399 (24%) of 5795 patients in the convalescent plasma group and 1408 (24%) of 5763 patients in the usual care group died within 28 days (rate ratio 1·00, 95% CI 0·93–1·07; p=0·95). The 28-day mortality rate ratio was similar in all prespecified subgroups of patients, including in those patients without detectable SARS-CoV-2 antibodies at randomisation. Allocation to convalescent plasma had no significant effect on the proportion of patients discharged from hospital within 28 days (3832 [66%] patients in the convalescent plasma group vs 3822 [66%] patients in the usual care group; rate ratio 0·99, 95% CI 0·94–1·03; p=0·57). Among those not on invasive mechanical ventilation at randomisation, there was no significant difference in the proportion of patients meeting the composite endpoint of progression to invasive mechanical ventilation or death (1568 [29%] of 5493 patients in the convalescent plasma group vs 1568 [29%] of 5448 patients in the usual care group; rate ratio 0·99, 95% CI 0·93–1·05; p=0·79). Interpretation: In patients hospitalised with COVID-19, high-titre convalescent plasma did not improve survival or other prespecified clinical outcomes. Funding: UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council) and National Institute of Health Research

A THEORETICAL ANALYSIS OF ELECTRON ZEEMAN AND HYPERFINE TENSORS FOR POLYACETYLENE

On a isolé les constituants des tenseurs électroniques Zeeman pour des échantillons orientés au hasard ou partiellement de polyacétylène et des composés de polyacétylène au moyen d'une spectroscopie EPR d'ondes millimétriques. On a mesuré les tenseurs hyperfins 13C et 1H avec une spectroscopie de résonance dite ENDOR et TRIPLE. Tandis que les résultats des expériences s'accordent en qualité avec les valeurs calculées par les théories de soliton, c'est-à-dire qu'on a isolé une fonction déplacée d'une onde d'électron π, les variations de densité de spin observées dans les expériences le long de la chaîne du polyène ne s'accordent ni en qualité ni en quantité avec les théories actuelles de soliton. Par contraste, nos mesures sont bien en accord avec les calculs d'orbitale moléculaire dits EWMO et McLachlan, qui supposent que l'échantillon paramagnétique est un polyène radical impair, linéaire et neutre.The components of the electron Zeeman tensors have been determined for randomly and partially oriented samples of polyacetylene and composites of polyacetylene by millimeter wave EPR spectroscopy. The complete and 13C and 1H hyperfine tensors have been measured by ENDOR and TRIPLE resonance spectroscopy. While the experimental results are in qualitative agreement with the predictions of soliton theories in that a delocalized π-electron wave function is observed, the experimentally observed spin density variations along the polyene backbone are in qualitative and quantitative disagreement with the currently existing soliton theories. In contrast, EWMO and McLachlan molecular orbital calculations, based on the assumption that the paramagnetic entity being observed is an odd, linear, neutral, polyene radical, reproduce the experimental observations very well

Amygdala volume and nonverbal social impairment in adolescent and adult males with autism

BACKGROUND: Autism is a syndrome of unknown cause, marked by abnormal development of social behavior. Attempts to link pathological features of the amygdala, which plays a key role in emotional processing, to autism have shown little consensus. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate amygdala volume in individuals with autism spectrum disorders and its relationship to laboratory measures of social behavior to examine whether variations in amygdala structure relate to symptom severity. DESIGN: We conducted 2 cross-sectional studies of amygdala volume, measured blind to diagnosis on high-resolution, anatomical magnetic resonance images. Participants were 54 males aged 8 to 25 years, including 23 with autism and 5 with Asperger syndrome or pervasive developmental disorder not otherwise specified, recruited and evaluated at an academic center for developmental disabilities and 26 age- and sex-matched community volunteers. The Autism Diagnostic Interview–Revised was used to confirm diagnoses and to validate relationships with laboratory measures of social function. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Amygdala volume, judgment of facial expressions, and eye tracking. RESULTS: In study 1, individuals with autism who had small amygdalae were slowest to distinguish emotional from neutral expressions (P=.02) and showed least fixation of eye regions (P=.04). These same individuals were most socially impaired in early childhood, as reported on the Autism Diagnostic Interview–Revised(P<.04).Study 2 showed smaller amygdalae in individuals with autism than in control subjects (P=.03) and group differences in the relation between amygdala volume and age. Study 2 also replicated findings of more gaze avoidance and childhood impairment in participants with autism with the smallest amygdalae. Across the combined sample, severity of social deficits interacted with age to predict different patterns of amygdala development in autism (P=.047). CONCLUSIONS: These findings best support a model of amygdala hyperactivity that could explain most volumetric findings in autism. Further psychophysiological and histopathological studies are indicated to confirm these findings

Absence of P-Glycoprotein Transport in the Pharmacokinetics and Toxicity of the Herbicide Paraquat

Genetic variation in the multidrug resistance gene ABCB1, which encodes the efflux transporter P-glycoprotein (P-gp), has been associated with Parkinson disease. Our goal was to investigate P-gp transport of paraquat, a Parkinson-associated neurotoxicant. We used in vitro transport models of ATPase activity, xenobiotic-induced cytotoxicity, transepithelial permeability, and rhodamine-123 inhibition. We also measured paraquat pharmacokinetics and brain distribution in Friend leukemia virus B-type (FVB) wild-type and P-gp-deficient (mdr1a(-/-)/mdr1b(-/-)) mice following 10, 25, 50, and 100 mg/kg oral doses. In vitro data showed that: 1) paraquat failed to stimulate ATPase activity; 2) resistance to paraquat-induced cytotoxicity was unchanged in P-gp-expressing cells in the absence or presence of P-gp inhibitors GF120918 [N-(4-[2-(1,2,3,4-tetrahydro-6,7-dimethoxy-2-isoquinolinyl)ethyl]-phenyl)-9,10-dihydro-5-methoxy-9-oxo-4-acridine carboxamide] and verapamil-37.0 [95% confidence interval (CI): 33.2-41.4], 46.2 (42.5-50.2), and 34.1 µM (31.2-37.2)-respectively; 3) transepithelial permeability ratios of paraquat were the same in P-gp-expressing and nonexpressing cells (1.55 ± 0.39 and 1.39 ± 0.43, respectively); and 4) paraquat did not inhibit rhodamine-123 transport. Population pharmacokinetic modeling revealed minor differences between FVB wild-type and mdr1a(-/-)/mdr1b(-/-) mice: clearances of 0.47 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.42-0.52] and 0.78 l/h (0.58-0.98), respectively, and volume of distributions of 1.77 (95% CI: 1.50-2.04) and 3.36 liters (2.39-4.33), respectively; however, the change in clearance was in the opposite direction of what would be expected. It is noteworthy that paraquat brain-to-plasma partitioning ratios and total brain accumulation were the same across doses between FVB wild-type and mdr1a(-/-)/mdr1b(-/-) mice. These studies indicate that paraquat is not a P-gp substrate. Therefore, the association between ABCB1 pharmacogenomics and Parkinson disease is not attributed to alterations in paraquat transport

Absence of P-Glycoprotein Transport in the Pharmacokinetics and Toxicity of the Herbicide Paraquat

Genetic variation in the multidrug resistance gene ABCB1, which encodes the efflux transporter P-glycoprotein (P-gp), has been associated with Parkinson disease. Our goal was to investigate P-gp transport of paraquat, a Parkinson-associated neurotoxicant. We used in vitro transport models of ATPase activity, xenobiotic-induced cytotoxicity, transepithelial permeability, and rhodamine-123 inhibition. We also measured paraquat pharmacokinetics and brain distribution in Friend leukemia virus B-type (FVB) wild-type and P-gp-deficient (mdr1a(-/-)/mdr1b(-/-)) mice following 10, 25, 50, and 100 mg/kg oral doses. In vitro data showed that: 1) paraquat failed to stimulate ATPase activity; 2) resistance to paraquat-induced cytotoxicity was unchanged in P-gp-expressing cells in the absence or presence of P-gp inhibitors GF120918 [N-(4-[2-(1,2,3,4-tetrahydro-6,7-dimethoxy-2-isoquinolinyl)ethyl]-phenyl)-9,10-dihydro-5-methoxy-9-oxo-4-acridine carboxamide] and verapamil-37.0 [95% confidence interval (CI): 33.2-41.4], 46.2 (42.5-50.2), and 34.1 µM (31.2-37.2)-respectively; 3) transepithelial permeability ratios of paraquat were the same in P-gp-expressing and nonexpressing cells (1.55 ± 0.39 and 1.39 ± 0.43, respectively); and 4) paraquat did not inhibit rhodamine-123 transport. Population pharmacokinetic modeling revealed minor differences between FVB wild-type and mdr1a(-/-)/mdr1b(-/-) mice: clearances of 0.47 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.42-0.52] and 0.78 l/h (0.58-0.98), respectively, and volume of distributions of 1.77 (95% CI: 1.50-2.04) and 3.36 liters (2.39-4.33), respectively; however, the change in clearance was in the opposite direction of what would be expected. It is noteworthy that paraquat brain-to-plasma partitioning ratios and total brain accumulation were the same across doses between FVB wild-type and mdr1a(-/-)/mdr1b(-/-) mice. These studies indicate that paraquat is not a P-gp substrate. Therefore, the association between ABCB1 pharmacogenomics and Parkinson disease is not attributed to alterations in paraquat transport