Model-based estimation of iohexol plasma clearance for pragmatic renal function determination in the renal transplantation setting

Background Iohexol plasma clearance-based glomerular filtration rate (GFR) determination provides an accurate method for renal function evaluation. This technique is increasingly advocated for clinical situations that dictate highly accurate renal function assessment, as an alternative to conventional serum creatinine-based methods with limited accuracy or poor feasibility. In the renal transplantation setting, this particularly applies to living renal transplant donor eligibility screening, renal transplant function monitoring and research purposes. The dependency of current iohexol GFR estimation techniques on extensive sampling, however, has limited its clinical application. We developed a population pharmacokinetic model and limited sampling schedules, implemented in the online InsightRX precision dosing platform, to facilitate pragmatic iohexol GFR assessment. Methods Iohexol concentrations (n = 587) drawn 5 min to 4 h after administration were available from 67 renal transplant recipients and 41 living renal transplant donor candidates with measured iohexol GFRs of 27-117 mL/min/1.73 m(2). These were split into a model development (n = 72) cohort and an internal validation (n = 36) cohort. External validation was performed with 1040 iohexol concentrations from 268 renal transplant recipients drawn between 5 min and 4 h after administration, and extended iohexol curves up to 24 h from 11 random patients with impaired renal function. Limited sampling schedules based on one to four blood draws within 4 h after iohexol administration were evaluated in terms of bias and imprecision, using the mean relative prediction error and mean absolute relative prediction error. The total deviation index and percentage of limited sampling schedule-based GFR predictions within +/- 10% of those of the full model (P-10) were assessed to aid interpretation. Results Iohexol pharmacokinetics was best described with a two-compartmental first-order elimination model, allometrically scaled to fat-free mass, with patient type as a covariate on clearance and the central distribution volume. Model validity was confirmed during the internal and external validation. Various limited sampling schedules based on three to four blood draws within 4 h showed excellent predictive performance (mean relative prediction error 97%). The best limited sampling schedules based on three to four blood draws within 3 h showed reduced predictive performance (mean relative prediction error = 85%), but may be considered for their enhanced clinical feasibility when deemed justified. Conclusions Our online pharmacometric tool provides an accurate, pragmatic, and ready-to-use technique for measured GFR-based renal function evaluation for clinical situations where conventional methods lack accuracy or show limited feasibility. Additional adaptation and validation of our model and limited sampling schedules for renal transplant recipients with GFRs below 30 mL/min is warranted before considering this technique in these patients.Nephrolog

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Accurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios. Methods: To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10–54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline. Findings: During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1—canonically considered replacement-level fertility—in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7–29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6–43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1–59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions—decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7–25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3–19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4–10·1) in 2100—but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction. Interpretation: Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

MAGNETIC PROPERTIES I : ELECTRONIC T2 AND T1 IN UNDOPED (CH)x AND (CD)x

Nous avons mesuré la grandeur et la dépendance de la température de T2e et T1e dans le polyacétylène pur. On donne un résumé des mesures de T2e et aussi des valeurs des vitesses de diffusion des solitons qui sont déduites de ces résultats. On présente quelques mesures de T1e de (CD)x et (CH)x à 9,5 GHz et 16,7 GHz. Ces résultats sont utilisés pour calculer les temps de relaxation nucléaire, T1p, par le mécanisme de la diffusion des spins nucléaires aux impuretés paramagnétiques immobiles. Nous démontrons que les résultats de ces calculs sont en accord avec les mesures par RMN certainement aussi bien que le modèle de diffusion des solitons.We have measured the magnitude and temperature dependences of T2e and T1e in undoped polyacetylene. The T2e measurements and the determination of soliton diffusion rates from them are summarised. New T1e measurements on (CD)x and (CH)x at 9.5 GHz and 16.7 GHz are presented. These measurements are utilised to compute nuclear spin relaxation times, T1p, via the mechanism of nuclear spin diffusion to fixed paramagnetic impurities. It is shown that the results of this calculation agree with published NMR measurements at least as well as does the soliton diffusion model

MAGNETIC PROPERTIES II : ENDOR OF UNDOPED CIS-(CH)x

Nous avons étudié la spectroscopie de double résonance électronique et nucléaire (ENDOR) du cis-polyacétylène enrichi à 99% en 13C à des températures entre 77 K et 300 K. Les spectres sont caractérisés par deux, et deux seulement, tenseurs hyperfins du 1H et du 13C. Les amplitudes relatives et la symétrie des éléments du tenseur établissent que l'électron paramagnétique correspond à une orbitale délocalisée. Les résultats expérimentaux indiquent que l'électron délocalisé se déplace dans un puits de potentiel de ~ 100 Å de largeur.Pristine 99% 13C-enriched cis-polyacetylene has been investigated by electron-nuclear double-resonance (ENDOR) spectroscopy at temperatures between 77 and 300 K. Spectra are characterized by two and only two 1H and 13C hyperfine tensors. The relative magnitudes and symmetry of the tensor elements establish that the paramagnetic electron resides in a delocalized orbital. Experimental results indicate that the delocalized electron is constrained to a potential well of approximately 100 Å in width

Infinite-horizon choice functions

Intergenerational resource allocation, Infinite-horizon choice, D63, D71,