Social mobility and fertility

Intra- and inter-generational social mobility have in the past played an important role in attempts to explain fertility behaviour, and continue to do so today. The opinions expressed by social scientists in the first part of the 20th century are renewed and confirmed. More specifically: (1) intra-generational social mobility has been reinforced by the personal well-being aspirations and job careers of women; (2) status anxiety parents feel for their children pushes fertility down in large areas of the developed world (mainly in southern European and eastern Asian countries). Therefore, the provocative idea of Ariès that in the rich world, the child-king has now been replaced by the couple-queen does not perfectly hold.demographic transition, fertility, social mobility

The banquet of Aeolus

During the last fifteen years in the Western countries, the higher is the proportion of people aged 20-30 living in the parental home, the lower is fertility. In this paper I suggest that the familistic structure of family and society can help in understanding both these demographic behaviours, looking at the Italian case. Nevertheless, these patterns could hold in the strong-family area as a whole, i.e. the Mediterranean Europe. The familism refers to some social norms managing the relationships among members and generations within the nuclear family and kinship. Direct and indirect connections between familistic norms and marital and reproductive behaviour are described, using data from several sources for Italy during the new demographic transition. Finally, I argue that the triumph of the familistic society could be a pyrrhic victory, because the native Italian population risks being unable to reproduce itself.familism, fertility decline, Italy, late leaving the parental home, strong family system

Siblings and human capital: A comparison between Italy and France

This paper investigates how family size affects children’s human capital, comparing Italy and France. We tested the dilution effect in these countries, starting with the assumption that the higher the number of siblings, the fewer parental resources are available for each child, and the lower the probability that each child will successfully pursue his/her educational career. We find a negative correlation between the number of siblings and human capital. However, when the analysis is developed with a causal approach, the strength of the dilution effect weakens in Italy and disappears in France.causal analysis, dilution effect, education, family size, siblings

Comparisons of infant mortality in the Austrian Empire Länder using the Tafeln (1851-54)

In this paper we measure differences in infant mortality among the central European populations of the Austrian Empire during the mid-19th century using data published in the Tafeln zur Statistik der Österreichischen Monarchie (Statistical Tables of the Austrian Monarchy). Our aim is mainly methodological, i.e., to illustrate the extraordinary richness of this data, and to discuss whether the quality of the material on infant mortality published around 1850 in the Tafeln guarantees comparability between regions. This article demonstrates that – with several exceptions – the quality of the material on infant mortality published in the Tafeln around 1850 guarantees reliable comparability between the Empire’s Länder. Data on sex, age at death, and legitimacy were all recorded with great accuracy. This article – of a methodological nature – provides only a few examples of potential analyses which might be carried out using such rich and detailed territorial data. The geography of mortality in the first three years of life varied by age, but according to intervals different than those usually employed when studying early mortality. Four ages can be identified (first month, months 1-5, months 6-17, and months 18-35) with a geography of differing mortality. In all likelihood, in these four age groups, mortality differences between Länder were motivated by diverse reasons.Austrian Empire, infant mortality, quality of mortality data

A synthetic measure of mortality using skeletal data from ancient cemeteries: the d index

<b>Background</b>: Due to the scarcity of written sources in ancient historical periods, and thanks to the development of increasingly sophisticated methods of excavation, recognition, publication, and interpretation, archaeology has played an important role in the understanding of demographic mechanisms. It is in this context that the last decade has seen important developments in paleodemography, the use of skeletons to reconstruct the demographic dynamics of the past. <b>Objective</b>: In this study we show how skeletal data can be used to determine mortality regimes, enlarging the demographic meaning of the d index proposed by Bocquet-Appel in 2002. We apply the d index to Italian cemeteries dating from the 1st to the 15th century AD. <b>Contribution</b>: Our study contributes to the development of paleodemography, a particularly valuable method that uses large osteological samples to understand mortality trends in ancient historical periods. In this study we extend and develop the d index, introduced by Bocquet-Appel in 2002, and demonstrate its usefulness in a range of plausible demographic scenarios. By applying this method to the study of mortality in Italy from the 1st to the 15th centuries AD, we show its reliability in tracing mortality trends in periods of both normal mortality and mortality crisis

A simple two-stage data collection procedure to handle unit non-response in social surveys

The aim of this paper is to investigate the possibility of collecting information on the reproductive behaviour of mothers by means of a two-stages data collection procedure. At first stage a simple self-filled questionnaire is administered to a sample of students attending compulsory school; thus, each pupil is asked to give his mother a more complex questionnaire, bringing it back to school. Linking the two questionnaires, the non-response selection problems are solved using the same statistical techniques used to control attrition in panel surveys. Even if selffilled questionnaires can not be too complex, in some cases this data collection procedure can be recommended as (1) the proportion of unit non-responses in standard surveys can be very high, and the unit non-response selection is not easy to control; (2) it is a very low cost data collection procedure. After a general description of this data collection technique, an application is performed using data of the Urban Fertility Survey (UFS) conducted during 2001-02 in four Italian towns. As respondents are clearly selected (e.g., by citizenship) if data analysis is performed without correcting for non-response, results may be biased. In particular, we compare some regression models explaining fertility using data collected by the two questionnaires

Interdependence between sexual debut and church attendance in Italy

The influence of religion on an individual’s life-course in general – and on sexual behaviour in particular – has long been recognised by social scientists, although few studies have explored the reciprocal causal interdependence between religiosity and sexual debut, mainly in an overwhelmingly Catholic European context. In this paper, we study the dynamic bi-directional effect between first coital experience and discontinuance of church attendance among a representative sample of Italian students. Both effects work, contrasting the results of other authors regarding the USA, where only the effect of religion on sex has been detected. The present results do not change when the two processes are considered simultaneously and unobserved heterogeneity is taken into account. Some possible explanations are discussed.college students, Italy, religion, sexual debut, unobserved heterogeneity

Marital and Reproductive Behavior in Italy After 1995: Bridging the Gap with Western Europe?

Despite a delay of 20–25 years, when it comes to cohabitation, Italy has now begun to resemble other Western countries. In addition, the increase in legal separations has accelerated since 1995, although their number still remains far from that observed in countries such as the USA, the UK, and France. Finally, Italy’s fertility decline has come to a halt: the cohort of women born in the early 1970s will likely have the same TFR as those born in the mid-1960s (around 1.55). Moreover, in the Centre–North areas, period TFR rose from 1.1 in 1995 to 1.35 children per woman 10 years later. The territorial diffusion of cohabitation, legal separation, out-of-wedlock births, and fertility recovery overlaps closely with that of the decline in births during the first half of the twentieth century. A similar geographical pattern has been observed for the diffusion of school enrolment, industrialization, secularization, and (during the last 20 years) foreign immigration.Malgré un retard de 20 à 25 ans, en matière de cohabitation l’Italie commence à présent à ressembler aux autres pays occidentaux. De plus, la hausse des séparations légales s’est accélérée depuis 1995, bien que leur niveau demeure encore bien en-deçà de celui qui est observé dans des pays tels que les Etats-Unis d’Amérique, le Royaume-Uni, et la France. Finalement, la fécondité a cessé de baisser en Italie: la cohorte des femmes nées au début des années 1970 aura selon toute vraisemblance le même indice synthétique de fécondité que celle des femmes nées au milieu des années 60 (environ 1,55). De plus, dans les régions du centre-nord, l’indice synthétique de fécondité est passé de 1,1 enfant par femme en 1995 à 1,35 dix ans plus tard. La diffusion territoriale de la cohabitation, des séparations légales, des naissances hors mariage et du rattrapage de la fécondité recouvre de façon étroite celle de la baisse des naissances au cours de la première moitié du vingtième siècle. Le même schéma géographique est observé dans la diffusion de la scolarisation, de l’industrialisation, de la sécularisation et (pendant les 20 dernières années) de l’immigration en provenance de l’étranger

An analysis of extremely high 19th century winter neonatal mortality in a local context of northeastern Italy

Beginning in the mid-seventeenth century, infant mortality in Veneto (a region in northeastern Italy) began to increase, starting at 250‰ and rising to 350‰ by the mid-nineteenth century—one of the highest levels ever recorded in modern Europe. This dramatic change - in a period of worsening economic conditions - was due to variations in winter neonatal mortality, which was 3–4 times higher in Veneto than in other areas with similar winter temperatures (such as England). We combine micro-data on neonatal mortality with daily data on temperatures for a specific context during the period of 1816–1868 characterized by very high neonatal mortality. We find that the risk of death was particularly intense during the first week of life and strongly correlated with external minimum temperature. Through a comparison of these results with other findings in the literature, we suggest that the increase in winter neonatal mortality in Veneto could have principally been caused by the deteriorating physical condition of mothers, lessening the 'quality' of infants who consequently were quite susceptible to cold temperatures.À partir du milieu du 17e siècle, la mortalité infantile à Veneto (région au Nord-Est de l'Italie) a augmenté, passant de 250‰ à 350‰ au milieu du 19e siècle, l'un des niveaux les plus élevés jamais enregistrés dans l'Europe moderne. Cette évolution dramatique – dans une période de dégradation du contexte économique – était dûe aux fluctuations de la mortalité néonatale pendant l'hiver, mortalité qui était à Veneto 3 à 4 fois supérieure à celle d'autres régions ayant des températures hivernales similaires (telles que l’Angleterre). Dans cette analyse, nous avons combiné des microdonnées sur la mortalité néonatale avec les températures quotidiennes relevées dans un contexte régional spécifique au cours de la période 1816–1868, caractérisée par une mortalité néonatale très élevée. Il apparaît que le risque de décès a été particulièrement élevé pendant la première semaine de vie et fortement corrélé avec la température extérieure minimale. A partir d'une comparaison de ces résultats avec d'autres retrouvés dans la littérature, nous émettons l'hypothèse que l'augmentation de la mortalité néonatale en hiver à Veneto était principalement causée par une dégradation de la condition physique des mères, diminuant la "qualité" des enfants et les rendant par conséquent plus sensibles aux basses températures