80 research outputs found
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Placebo Tests for Causal Inference
Placebo tests are increasingly common in applied social science research, but the methodological literature has not previously offered a comprehensive account of what we learn from them. We define placebo tests as tools for assessing the plausibility of the assumptions underlying a research design relative to some departure from those assumptions. We offer a typology of tests defined by the aspect of the research design that is altered to produce it (outcome, treatment, or population) and the type of assumption that is tested (bias assumptions or distributional assumptions). Our formal framework clarifies the extra assumptions necessary for informative placebo tests; these assumptions can be strong, and in some cases similar assumptions would justify a different procedure allowing the researcher to relax the research design's assumptions rather than test them. Properly designed and interpreted, placebo tests can be an important device for assessing the credibility of empirical research designs
Social and Governance Implications of Improved Data Efficiency
Many researchers work on improving the data efficiency of machine learning.
What would happen if they succeed? This paper explores the social-economic
impact of increased data efficiency. Specifically, we examine the intuition
that data efficiency will erode the barriers to entry protecting incumbent
data-rich AI firms, exposing them to more competition from data-poor firms. We
find that this intuition is only partially correct: data efficiency makes it
easier to create ML applications, but large AI firms may have more to gain from
higher performing AI systems. Further, we find that the effect on privacy, data
markets, robustness, and misuse are complex. For example, while it seems
intuitive that misuse risk would increase along with data efficiency -- as more
actors gain access to any level of capability -- the net effect crucially
depends on how much defensive measures are improved. More investigation into
data efficiency, as well as research into the "AI production function", will be
key to understanding the development of the AI industry and its societal
impacts.Comment: 7 pages, 2 figures, accepted to Artificial Intelligence Ethics and
Society 202
Democratising AI: Multiple Meanings, Goals, and Methods
Numerous parties are calling for the democratisation of AI, but the phrase is
used to refer to a variety of goals, the pursuit of which sometimes conflict.
This paper identifies four kinds of AI democratisation that are commonly
discussed: (1) the democratisation of AI use, (2) the democratisation of AI
development, (3) the democratisation of AI profits, and (4) the democratisation
of AI governance. Numerous goals and methods of achieving each form of
democratisation are discussed. The main takeaway from this paper is that AI
democratisation is a multifarious and sometimes conflicting concept that should
not be conflated with improving AI accessibility. If we want to move beyond
ambiguous commitments to democratising AI, to productive discussions of
concrete policies and trade-offs, then we need to recognise the principal role
of the democratisation of AI governance in navigating tradeoffs and risks
across decisions around use, development, and profits.Comment: Changed second author affiliation; added citation to section 5.2;
edit to author contribution statemen
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