External validation and clinical utility assessment of PREDICT breast cancer prognostic model in young, systemic treatment-naïve women with node-negative breast cancer

Background: The validity of the PREDICT breast cancer prognostic model is unclear for young patients without adjuvant systemic treatment. This study aimed to validate PREDICT and assess its clinical utility in young women with node-negative breast cancer who did not receive systemic treatment. Methods: We selected all women from the Netherlands Cancer Registry who were diagnosed with node-negative breast cancer under age 40 between 1989 and 2000, a period when adjuvant systemic treatment was not standard practice for women with node-negative disease. We evaluated the calibration and discrimination of PREDICT using the observed/expected (O/E) mortality ratio, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), respectively. Additionally, we compared the potential clinical utility of PREDICT for selectively administering chemotherapy to the chemotherapy-to-all strategy using decision curve analysis at predefined thresholds. Results: A total of 2264 women with a median age at diagnosis of 36 years were included. Of them, 71.2% had estrogen receptor (ER)-positive tumors and 44.0% had grade 3 tumors. Median tumor size was 16 mm. PREDICT v2.2 underestimated 10-year all-cause mortality by 33% in all women (O/E ratio:1.33, 95%CI:1.22–1.43). Model discrimination was moderate overall (AUC10-year:0.65, 95%CI:0.62–0.68), and poor for women with ER-negative tumors (AUC10-year:0.56, 95%CI:0.51–0.62). Compared to the chemotherapy-to-all strategy, PREDICT only showed a slightly higher net benefit in women with ER-positive tumors, but not in women with ER-negative tumors. Conclusions: PREDICT yields unreliable predictions for young women with node-negative breast cancer. Further model updates are needed before PREDICT can be routinely used in this patient subset.</p

Prognostic value of histopathologic traits independent of stromal tumor-infiltrating lymphocyte levels in chemotherapy-naïve patients with triple-negative breast cancer

Background: In the absence of prognostic biomarkers, most patients with early-stage triple-negative breast cancer (eTNBC) are treated with combination chemotherapy. The identification of biomarkers to select patients for whom treatment de-escalation or escalation could be considered remains an unmet need. We evaluated the prognostic value of histopathologic traits in a unique cohort of young, (neo)adjuvant chemotherapy-naïve patients with early-stage (stage I or II), node-negative TNBC and long-term follow-up, in relation to stromal tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (sTILs) for which the prognostic value was recently reported. Materials and methods: We studied all 485 patients with node-negative eTNBC from the population-based PARADIGM cohort which selected women aged &lt;40 years diagnosed between 1989 and 2000. None of the patients had received (neo)adjuvant chemotherapy according to standard practice at the time. Associations between histopathologic traits and breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) were analyzed with Cox proportional hazard models. Results: With a median follow-up of 20.0 years, an independent prognostic value for BCSS was observed for lymphovascular invasion (LVI) [adjusted (adj.) hazard ratio (HR) 2.35, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.49-3.69], fibrotic focus (adj. HR 1.61, 95% CI 1.09-2.37) and sTILs (per 10% increment adj. HR 0.75, 95% CI 0.69-0.82). In the sTILs &lt;30% subgroup, the presence of LVI resulted in a higher cumulative incidence of breast cancer death (at 20 years, 58%; 95% CI 41% to 72%) compared with when LVI was absent (at 20 years, 32%; 95% CI 26% to 39%). In the ≥75% sTILs subgroup, the presence of LVI might be associated with poor survival (HR 11.45, 95% CI 0.71-182.36, two deaths). We confirm the lack of prognostic value of androgen receptor expression and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 -low status. Conclusions: sTILs, LVI and fibrotic focus provide independent prognostic information in young women with node-negative eTNBC. Our results are of importance for the selection of patients for de-escalation and escalation trials.</p

Deep learning-based breast cancer grading and survival analysis on whole-slide histopathology images

Breast cancer tumor grade is strongly associated with patient survival. In current clinical practice, pathologists assign tumor grade after visual analysis of tissue specimens. However, different studies show significant inter-observer variation in breast cancer grading. Computer-based breast cancer grading methods have been proposed but only work on specifically selected tissue areas and/or require labor-intensive annotations to be applied to new datasets. In this study, we trained and evaluated a deep learning-based breast cancer grading model that works on whole-slide histopathology images. The model was developed using whole-slide images from 706 young (< 40 years) invasive breast cancer patients with corresponding tumor grade (low/intermediate vs. high), and its constituents nuclear grade, tubule formation and mitotic rate. The performance of the model was evaluated using Cohen’s kappa on an independent test set of 686 patients using annotations by expert pathologists as ground truth. The predicted low/intermediate (n = 327) and high (n = 359) grade groups were used to perform survival analysis. The deep learning system distinguished low/intermediate versus high tumor grade with a Cohen’s Kappa of 0.59 (80% accuracy) compared to expert pathologists. In subsequent survival analysis the two groups predicted by the system were found to have a significantly different overall survival (OS) and disease/recurrence-free survival (DRFS/RFS) (p < 0.05). Univariate Cox hazard regression analysis showed statistically significant hazard ratios (p < 0.05). After adjusting for clinicopathologic features and stratifying for molecular subtype the hazard ratios showed a trend but lost statistical significance for all endpoints. In conclusion, we developed a deep learning-based model for automated grading of breast cancer on whole-slide images. The model distinguishes between low/intermediate and high grade tumors and finds a trend in the survival of the two predicted groups

Adjuvant Aromatase Inhibitors or Tamoxifen Following Chemotherapy for Perimenopausal Breast Cancer Patients

Background: The benefit of adjuvant aromatase inhibitors (AI) vs tamoxifen has been investigated in randomized clinical trials for premenopausal and postmenopausal patients with early, estrogen receptor–positive (ERþ) breast cancer. The optimal endocrine treatment for chemotherapy-treated perimenopausal women, who generally develop chemotherapy-induced amenorrhea, is uncertain. Methods: All Dutch women who received adjuvant chemotherapy and endocrine treatment for stage I-III, ERþ (>10% positive cells), invasive breast cancer diagnosed between 2004 and 2007 were identified through the Netherlands Cancer Registry. Included women were considered perimenopausal based on an age at diagnosis of 45 to 50 years (n¼2295). For each patient, AI treatment duration relative to total endocrine treatment duration was calculated. Predominantly tamoxifen-treated patients (AI75%). Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival were calculated using time-dependent Cox regression. Results: After an average follow-up of 7.6 years, 377 RFS events occurred.Womenmostly receiving AI (AI>75%) had the best RFS (adjusted HR ¼ 0.63, 95% confidence interval¼ 0.46 to 0.86) followed by those receiving AI 25% to 75% (adjusted HR ¼ 0.85, 95% confidence interval¼ 0.65 to 1.12) compared with predominantly tamoxifen-treated women. Trend analyses showed that every 10% increase in AI-endocrine treatment ratio reduced RFS event risk by 5% (2-sided Ptrend ¼ .002). In total, 236 deaths occurred; hazard ratios for overall survival showed similar trends. Conclusions: These results suggest that the best adjuvant endocrine treatment for chemotherapy-treated, ERþ breast cancer patients diagnosed aged 45-50 years consists of mainly AI followed by a switch strategy and mainly tamoxifen

Prognostic Value of Stromal Tumor-Infiltrating Lymphocytes in Young, Node-Negative, Triple-Negative Breast Cancer Patients Who Did Not Receive (neo)Adjuvant Systemic Therapy

PURPOSETriple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) is considered aggressive, and therefore, virtually all young patients with TNBC receive (neo)adjuvant chemotherapy. Increased stromal tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (sTILs) have been associated with a favorable prognosis in TNBC. However, whether this association holds for patients who are node-negative (N0), young (< 40 years), and chemotherapy-naïve, and thus can be used for chemotherapy de-escalation strategies, is unknown.METHODSWe selected all patients with N0 TNBC diagnosed between 1989 and 2000 from a Dutch population-based registry. Patients were age < 40 years at diagnosis and had not received (neo)adjuvant systemic therapy, as was standard practice at the time. Formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded blocks were retrieved (PALGA: Dutch Pathology Registry), and a pathology review including sTILs was performed. Patients were categorized according to sTILs (< 30%, 30%-75%, and ≥ 75%). Multivariable Cox regression was performed for overall survival, with or without sTILs as a covariate. Cumulative incidence of distant metastasis or death was analyzed in a competing risk model, with second primary tumors as competing risk.RESULTSsTILs were scored for 441 patients. High sTILs (≥ 75%; 21%) translated into an excellent prognosis with a 15-year cumulative incidence of a distant metastasis or death of only 2.1% (95% CI, 0 to 5.0), whereas low sTILs (< 30%; 52%) had an unfavorable prognosis with a 15-year cumulative incidence of a distant metastasis or death of 38.4% (32.1 to 44.6). In addition, every 10% increment of sTILs decreased the risk of death by 19% (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.81; 95% CI, 0.76 to 0.87), which are an independent predictor adding prognostic information to standard clinicopathologic variables (χ= 46.7, P <.001).CONCLUSIONChemotherapy-naïve, young patients with N0 TNBC with high sTILs (≥ 75%) have an excellent long-term prognosis. Therefore, sTILs should be considered for prospective clinical trials investigating (neo)adjuvant chemotherapy de-escalation strategies