FRAIR: an R package for fitting and comparing consumer functional responses

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley / British Ecological Society via the DOI in this record.1.Consumer‐resource interactions (i.e. the functional response) underpin decades of ecological advancements. However, selecting, fitting and comparing functional response models using appropriate methods remains a non‐trivial endeavour. 2.The R package frair provides tools for selecting and differentiating various forms of consumer functional response models, a consistent interface for fitting and visualising response curves, and a selection of statistically robust methods for comparing fitted parameters. 3.Using real data from crustacean predator‐prey systems, we demonstrate the utility of frair, highlighting best practice and common analytical mistakes.Pūnaha Hihiko Vision Mātauranga Capability.European Union INTERREG IVA Programme and Department of Environment, Northern Ireland (DOENI)Natural Environment Research Counci

Symptoms and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Positivity in the General Population in the United Kingdom

BACKGROUND: “Classic” symptoms (cough, fever, loss of taste/smell) prompt severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing in the United Kingdom. Studies have assessed the ability of different symptoms to identify infection, but few have compared symptoms over time (reflecting variants) and by vaccination status. METHODS: Using the COVID-19 Infection Survey, sampling households across the United Kingdom, we compared symptoms in PCR-positives vs PCR-negatives, evaluating sensitivity of combinations of 12 symptoms (percentage symptomatic PCR-positives reporting specific symptoms) and tests per case (TPC) (PCR-positives or PCR-negatives reporting specific symptoms/ PCR-positives reporting specific symptoms). RESULTS: Between April 2020 and August 2021, 27 869 SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive episodes occurred in 27 692 participants (median 42 years), of whom 13 427 (48%) self-reported symptoms (“symptomatic PCR-positives”). The comparator comprised 3 806 692 test-negative visits (457 215 participants); 130 612 (3%) self-reported symptoms (“symptomatic PCR-negatives”). Symptom reporting in PCR-positives varied by age, sex, and ethnicity, and over time, reflecting changes in prevalence of viral variants, incidental changes (eg, seasonal pathogens (with sore throat increasing in PCR-positives and PCR-negatives from April 2021), schools reopening) and vaccination rollout. After May 2021 when Delta emerged, headache and fever substantially increased in PCR-positives, but not PCR-negatives. Sensitivity of symptom-based detection increased from 74% using “classic” symptoms, to 81% adding fatigue/weakness, and 90% including all 8 additional symptoms. However, this increased TPC from 4.6 to 5.3 to 8.7. CONCLUSIONS: Expanded symptom combinations may provide modest benefits for sensitivity of PCR-based case detection, but this will vary between settings and over time, and increases tests/case. Large-scale changes to targeted PCR-testing approaches require careful evaluation given substantial resource and infrastructure implications

Measuring Fluorescent Dye in the Bubbly and Sediment-Laden Surfzone

Decisions about recreational beach closures would be enhanced if better estimates of surfzone contaminant transport and dilution were available. In situ methods for measuring fluorescent Rhodamine WT dye tracer in the surfzone are presented, increasing the temporal and spatial resolution over previous surfzone techniques. Bubbles and sand suspended by breaking waves in the surfzone interfere with in situ optical fluorometer dye measurements, increasing the lower bound for dye detection (≈ 1 ppb) and reducing (quenching) measured dye concentrations. Simultaneous turbidity measurements are used to estimate the level of bubble and sand interference and correct dye estimates. After correction, root-mean-square dye concentration errors are estimated to be < 5% of dye concentration magnitude, thus demonstrating the viability of in situ surfzone fluorescent dye measurements. The surfzone techniques developed here may be applicable to other environments with high bubble and sand concentrations (e.g., cascading rivers and streams)

Riverine coupling of biogeochemical cycles between land, oceans, and atmosphere

Author Posting. © Ecological Society of America, 2011. This article is posted here by permission of Ecological Society of America for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 9 (2011): 53–60, doi:10.1890/100014.Streams, rivers, lakes, and other inland waters are important agents in the coupling of biogeochemical cycles between continents, atmosphere, and oceans. The depiction of these roles in global-scale assessments of carbon (C) and other bioactive elements remains limited, yet recent findings suggest that C discharged to the oceans is only a fraction of that entering rivers from terrestrial ecosystems via soil respiration, leaching, chemical weathering, and physical erosion. Most of this C influx is returned to the atmosphere from inland waters as carbon dioxide (CO2) or buried in sedimentary deposits within impoundments, lakes, floodplains, and other wetlands. Carbon and mineral cycles are coupled by both erosion–deposition processes and chemical weathering, with the latter producing dissolved inorganic C and carbonate buffering capacity that strongly modulate downstream pH, biological production of calcium-carbonate shells, and CO2 outgassing in rivers, estuaries, and coastal zones. Human activities substantially affect all of these processes.The US National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provided funding for this work

Ct threshold values, a proxy for viral load in community SARS-CoV-2 cases, demonstrate wide variation across populations and over time

Background: Information on SARS-CoV-2 in representative community surveillance is limited, particularly cycle threshold (Ct) values (a proxy for viral load). Methods: We included all positive nose and throat swabs 26 April 2020 to 13 March 2021 from the UK’s national COVID-19 Infection Survey, tested by RT-PCR for the N, S, and ORF1ab genes. We investigated predictors of median Ct value using quantile regression. Results: Of 3,312,159 nose and throat swabs, 27,902 (0.83%) were RT-PCR-positive, 10,317 (37%), 11,012 (40%), and 6550 (23%) for 3, 2, or 1 of the N, S, and ORF1ab genes, respectively, with median Ct = 29.2 (~215 copies/ml; IQR Ct = 21.9–32.8, 14–56,400 copies/ml). Independent predictors of lower Cts (i.e. higher viral load) included self-reported symptoms and more genes detected, with at most small effects of sex, ethnicity, and age. Single-gene positives almost invariably had Ct > 30, but Cts varied widely in triple-gene positives, including without symptoms. Population-level Cts changed over time, with declining Ct preceding increasing SARS-CoV-2 positivity. Of 6189 participants with IgG S-antibody tests post-first RT-PCR-positive, 4808 (78%) were ever antibody-positive; Cts were significantly higher in those remaining antibody negative. Conclusions: Marked variation in community SARS-CoV-2 Ct values suggests that they could be a useful epidemiological early-warning indicator. Funding: Department of Health and Social Care, National Institutes of Health Research, Huo Family Foundation, Medical Research Council UK; Wellcome Trust

Effect of Delta variant on viral burden and vaccine effectiveness against new SARS-CoV-2 infections in the UK

The effectiveness of the BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 vaccines against new severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections requires continuous re-evaluation, given the increasingly dominant B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant. In this study, we investigated the effectiveness of these vaccines in a large, community-based survey of randomly selected households across the United Kingdom. We found that the effectiveness of BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 against infections (new polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-positive cases) with symptoms or high viral burden is reduced with the B.1.617.2 variant (absolute difference of 10–13% for BNT162b2 and 16% for ChAdOx1) compared to the B.1.1.7 (Alpha) variant. The effectiveness of two doses remains at least as great as protection afforded by prior natural infection. The dynamics of immunity after second doses differed significantly between BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1, with greater initial effectiveness against new PCR-positive cases but faster declines in protection against high viral burden and symptomatic infection with BNT162b2. There was no evidence that effectiveness varied by dosing interval, but protection was higher in vaccinated individuals after a prior infection and in younger adults. With B.1.617.2, infections occurring after two vaccinations had similar peak viral burden as those in unvaccinated individuals. SARS-CoV-2 vaccination still reduces new infections, but effectiveness and attenuation of peak viral burden are reduced with B.1.617.2

Monitoring populations at increased risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection in the community using population-level demographic and behavioural surveillance

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic is rapidly evolving, with emerging variants and fluctuating control policies. Real-time population screening and identification of groups in whom positivity is highest could help monitor spread and inform public health messaging and strategy. METHODS: To develop a real-time screening process, we included results from nose and throat swabs and questionnaires taken 19 July 2020-17 July 2021 in the UK's national COVID-19 Infection Survey. Fortnightly, associations between SARS-CoV-2 positivity and 60 demographic and behavioural characteristics were estimated using logistic regression models adjusted for potential confounders, considering multiple testing, collinearity, and reverse causality. FINDINGS: Of 4,091,537 RT-PCR results from 482,677 individuals, 29,903 (0·73%) were positive. As positivity rose September-November 2020, rates were independently higher in younger ages, and those living in Northern England, major urban conurbations, more deprived areas, and larger households. Rates were also higher in those returning from abroad, and working in healthcare or outside of home. When positivity peaked December 2020-January 2021 (Alpha), high positivity shifted to southern geographical regions. With national vaccine roll-out from December 2020, positivity reduced in vaccinated individuals. Associations attenuated as rates decreased between February-May 2021. Rising positivity rates in June-July 2021 (Delta) were independently higher in younger, male, and unvaccinated groups. Few factors were consistently associated with positivity. 25/45 (56%) confirmed associations would have been detected later using 28-day rather than 14-day periods. INTERPRETATION: Population-level demographic and behavioural surveillance can be a valuable tool in identifying the varying characteristics driving current SARS-CoV-2 positivity, allowing monitoring to inform public health policy. FUNDING: Department of Health and Social Care (UK), Welsh Government, Department of Health (on behalf of the Northern Ireland Government), Scottish Government, National Institute for Health Research

Quantifying vertical mixing in estuaries

© 2008 The Authors. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial License. The definitive version was published in Environmental Fluid Mechanics 8 (2008): 495-509, doi:10.1007/s10652-008-9107-2.Estuarine turbulence is notable in that both the dissipation rate and the buoyancy frequency extend to much higher values than in other natural environments. The high dissipation rates lead to a distinct inertial subrange in the velocity and scalar spectra, which can be exploited for quantifying the turbulence quantities. However, high buoyancy frequencies lead to small Ozmidov scales, which require high sampling rates and small spatial aperture to resolve the turbulent fluxes. A set of observations in a highly stratified estuary demonstrate the effectiveness of a vessel-mounted turbulence array for resolving turbulent processes, and for relating the turbulence to the forcing by the Reynolds-averaged flow. The observations focus on the ebb, when most of the buoyancy flux occurs. Three stages of mixing are observed: (1) intermittent and localized but intense shear instability during the early ebb; (2) continuous and relatively homogeneous shear-induced mixing during the mid-ebb, and weakly stratified, boundary-layer mixing during the late ebb. The mixing efficiency as quantified by the flux Richardson number Rf was frequently observed to be higher than the canonical value of 0.15 from Osborn (J Phys Oceanogr 10:83–89, 1980). The high efficiency may be linked to the temporal–spatial evolution of shear instabilities.The funding for this research was obtained from ONR Grant N00014-06-1-0292 and NSF Grant OCE-0729547

Early Exposure of Infants to GI Nematodes Induces Th2 Dominant Immune Responses Which Are Unaffected by Periodic Anthelminthic Treatment

We have previously shown a reduction in anaemia and wasting malnutrition in infants <3 years old in Pemba Island, Zanzibar, following repeated anthelminthic treatment for the endemic gastrointestinal (GI) nematodes Ascaris lumbricoides, hookworm and Trichuris trichiura. In view of the low intensity of worm infections in this age group, this was unexpected, and it was proposed that immune responses to the worms rather than their direct effects may play a significant role in morbidity in infants and that anthelminthic treatment may alleviate such effects. Therefore, the primary aims of this study were to characterise the immune response to initial/early GI nematode infections in infants and the effects of anthelminthic treatment on such immune responses. The frequency and levels of Th1/Th2 cytokines (IL-5, IL-13, IFN-γ and IL-10) induced by the worms were evaluated in 666 infants aged 6–24 months using the Whole Blood Assay. Ascaris and hookworm antigens induced predominantly Th2 cytokine responses, and levels of IL-5 and IL-13 were significantly correlated. The frequencies and levels of responses were higher for both Ascaris positive and hookworm positive infants compared with worm negative individuals, but very few infants made Trichuris-specific cytokine responses. Infants treated every 3 months with mebendazole showed a significantly lower prevalence of infection compared with placebo-treated controls at one year following baseline. At follow-up, cytokine responses to Ascaris and hookworm antigens, which remained Th2 biased, were increased compared with baseline but were not significantly affected by treatment. However, blood eosinophil levels, which were elevated in worm-infected children, were significantly lower in treated children. Thus the effect of deworming in this age group on anaemia and wasting malnutrition, which were replicated in this study, could not be explained by modification of cytokine responses but may be related to eosinophil function