A discussion of stock market speculation by Pierre-Joseph Proudhon

The object of this contribution is to present the ideas behind the thinking of the French economist Pierre-Joseph Proudhon (1809-1865) in relation to the causes and effects of Stock market speculation. It is based upon the works of this author but particularly on his “Manuel du spéculateur à la Bourse” (Stock Market Speculator Manual) edited in 1857 in Paris. Compared to the markets of today, however, the stock market described by Proudhon appears embryonic. Nevertheless it represents the location for transactions in financial assets, commodities, precious metals and even some transactions involving options. This contribution is organised in the following manner - the first section is devoted to the development of Proudhon's thought in relation to speculation. It is divided into two parts. The first part is dedicated to Pierre-Joseph Proudhon's definitions of stock market speculation or gambling with shares that for him served no purpose either from a human or economic perspective and was therefore condemnable and to be contrasted with entrepreneurial speculation that, even though it is a highly-risky activity, involves the spirit of enterprise and provides the lifeblood of economic growth. The second part allows us to present Pierre-Joseph Proudhon's propositions in relation to restricting the speculation that he considers obnoxious. The second section has two objectives: one part places in perspective the views of Proudhon and the characteristics of stock market activity under the Second Empire whilst the other part examines current-day aspects of the characteristics evoked by Proudhon. We are interested especially in the question of the regulation and that of the relevance today of certain accounting practices.Proudhon ; speculation ; stock market ; regulation of financial markets

Empirical Comparisons of In-Store Display vs. Feature Advertising and Trade Promotions vs. Consumer Promotions, Measured at the Brand and the Category Levels

Marketing,

Testing mean-variance efficiency in CAPM with possibly non-gaussian errors: an exact simulation-based approach

In this paper we propose exact likelihood-based mean-variance efficiency tests of the market portfolio in the context of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), allowing for a wide class of error distributions which include normality as a special case. These tests are developed in the framework of multivariate linear regressions (MLR). It is well known however that despite their simple statistical structure, standard asymptotically justified MLR-based tests are unreliable. In financial econometrics, exact tests have been proposed for a few specific hypotheses [Jobson and Korkie (Journal of Financial Economics, 1982), MacKinlay (Journal of Financial Economics, 1987), Gibbons, Ross and Shanken (Econometrica, 1989), Zhou (Journal of Finance 1993)] most of which depend on normality. For the gaussian model, our tests correspond to Gibbons, Ross and Shanken's mean-variance efficiency tests. In non-gaussian contexts, we reconsider mean-variance efficiency tests allowing for multivariate Student-t and gaussian mixture errors. Our framework allows to cast more evidence on whether the normality assumption is too restrictive when testing the CAPM. We also propose exact multivariate diagnostic checks (including tests for multivariate GARCH and multivariate generalization of the well known variance ratio tests) and goodness of fit tests as well as a set estimate for the intervening nuisance parameters. Our results [over five-year subperiods] show the following: (i) multivariate normality is rejected in most subperiods, (ii) residual checks reveal no significant departures from the multivariate i.i.d. assumption, and (iii) mean-variance efficiency tests of the market portfolio is not rejected as frequently once it is allowed for the possibility of non-normal errors. -- In diesem Papier schlagen wir exakte likelihood-basierte Tests auf Mittelwert-Varianz- Effizienz im Rahmen des CAPM vor. Dabei wird eine breite Klasse von Verteilungen für den stochastischen Term zugelassen. Normalverteilung ist ein Spezialfall. Die Tests werden im Rahmen von multivariablen linearen Regressionen (MLR) entwickelt. Bekanntlich sind Standardtests, die auf MLR basieren und asymptotisch gerechtfertigt werden, nicht zuverlässig. In der Finanzökonometrie sind exakte Tests für einige wenige Hypothesen vorgeschlagen worden. Die meisten hängen von der Annahme der Normalverteilung ab (Jobson und Korkie (1982), Mac Kinley (1987), Gibbons, Ross und Shanken (1989), Zhou (1993)). Für das gaussianische Modell entsprechen unsere Tests denen von Gibbons, Ross und Shanken. Im nichtgaussianischen Modell betrachten wir Mittelwert-Varianz-Effizienz-Tests, wobei multivariate-Student-t und ?gemischte? Normalverteilungen zugelassen werden. Unser Ansatz gibt mehr Aufschluß darüber, ob die Annahme der Normalverteilung zu restriktiv ist, wenn das CAPM gestestet wird. Wir schlagen auch exakte multivariate Diagnosen (einschließlich Tests für multivariate GARCH-Modelle und multivariate Verallgemeinerungen der bekannten Varianz- Relationen-Tests) sowie Tests auf die Anpassungsgüte und eine Schätzung für die störenden Verschmutzungsparameter vor. Unsere Ergebnisse (für 5-Jahres-Perioden) zeigen das Folgende: (i) multivariate Normalität wird für die meisten Perioden verworfen (ii) die Überprüfung der Residuen zeigt keine signifikante Abweichung von der Annahme einer multivariaten i.i.d. Verteilung (iii), wenn man nichtnormalverteilte Fehler zulässt, werden Mittelwert-Varianz-Effizienz Tests des Marktportfolios seltener verworfen.capital assed pricing model,CAPM,mean-variance efficiency,nonnormality,multivariate linear regression,uniform linear hypothesis,exact test

Le manioc : une alternative à l'importation d'amidon au Cameroun. Recommandations d'actions pour le GAO du Nyong

Le Ministère de l'Agriculture du Cameroun, qui souhaite renforcer le développement de la filière racines et tubercules au Cameroun, a permis au GAO (Groupement des Associations - Organisations des femmes cultivatrices du Nyong) de réaliser le diagnostic d'un projet concernant l'installation d'une unité d'extraction d'amidon (capacité de traitement : 20 tonnes de racines par jour). Le projet formulé par le GAO devrait permettre, par la commercialisation de l'amidon, l'augmentation des revenus de plus de 15 000 familles dans les localités de Nguélémendouka et Angossas (province de l'Est) et de Kobdombo (province du Centre). Les visites de terrain ont permis de mieux apprécier la grande diversité des produits à base de manioc consommés au Cameroun (miondo, couscous, gari, fufu, bâton, bouilli). De plus, il est confirmé que pour chaque produit, certaines variétés sont privilégiées par les transformateurs. L'IRAD a collecté plus de 150 variétés dans les différents écosystèmes du pays et dispose des informations concernant leur utilisation. A ce jour, il n'existe aucune évaluation relative à la production d'amidon de manioc au Cameroun. Seuls, quelques petits producteurs d'amidon ont une connaissance des variétés les plus appropriées. 150 à 200 tonnes d'amidon importé sont utilisées mensuellement par les industries camerounaises. Les conditions d'accès à ce marché industriel pour l'amidon de manioc sont abordées. L'analyse des quelques données collectées sur place permet d'envisager de substituer une partie de l'amidon importé par une production locale. Les choix variétaux, les coûts de production et de transformation des racines, doivent être maîtrisés afin de respecter les conditions imposées par les industriels importateurs (prix, quantités, qualité, régularité). La diversité naturelle du manioc, adaptée aux conditions édapho - climatiques du bassin du Nyong, constitue, à elle seule, une ressource inestimable pour l'intensification de la culture du manioc. Le GAO a rassemblé les variétés locales et doit entreprendre une étude sur la productivité en amidon. Actuellement, le GAO n'est pas en situation d'approvisionner l'unité envisagée à court terme. Des solutions alternatives (diversification des produits du manioc) sont proposées pour fournir des revenus aux producteurs dans la période intermédiaire (défrichement, choix des variétés, multiplication du matériel végétal). La construction locale des matériels devant équiper les installations est privilégiée. Une attention toute particulière est portée à la formation des producteurs et transformateurs à leurs nouveaux métiers. Les aménagements proposés prennent en compte les besoins des populations concernées (distribution de l'eau, fourniture d'énergie électrique). Les résultats obtenus par le GAO montrent la vitalité d'une association dont les efforts méritent d'être renforcés par l'assistance technique de professionnels et appuyés par des apports financiers conséquents, véritables investissements pour le développement du bassin du Nyong. (Résumé d'auteur

L’effet de stimuli externes et des variables individuelles sur le traitement initial de l’information par le consommateur

The neo-classical economic theory of the consumer behavior defines a utility function in terms of a global number of characteristics a product process or the result of several purchase activities. Every consumer can be in the context of aninefficient consumption function if the choice of the product bought doesn't fit with the state of preferences for the characteristics of this product. Thus, an efficient consumption function requires an adequate level of information that the mechanics of the market performance doesn't guarantee as well as for the consumption function as for the production function.In this paper, the consumer information processing limit is exposed showing an important gap between the preferred and memorized information by the consumer during the decision process. The concept of pre-processed information proposed could possibly improve the efficiency of the consumption function

A discussion of stock market speculation by Pierre-Joseph Proudhon

International audienceThe object of this contribution is to present the ideas behind the thinking of the French economist Pierre-Joseph Proudhon (1809-1865) in relation to the causes and effects of Stock market speculation. It is based upon the works of this author but particularly on his “Manuel du spéculateur à la Bourse” (Stock Market Speculator Manual) edited in 1857 in Paris. Compared to the markets of today, however, the stock market described by Proudhon appears embryonic. Nevertheless it represents the location for transactions in financial assets, commodities, precious metals and even some transactions involving options. This contribution is organised in the following manner - the first section is devoted to the development of Proudhon's thought in relation to speculation. It is divided into two parts. The first part is dedicated to Pierre-Joseph Proudhon's definitions of stock market speculation or gambling with shares that for him served no purpose either from a human or economic perspective and was therefore condemnable and to be contrasted with entrepreneurial speculation that, even though it is a highly-risky activity, involves the spirit of enterprise and provides the lifeblood of economic growth. The second part allows us to present Pierre-Joseph Proudhon's propositions in relation to restricting the speculation that he considers obnoxious. The second section has two objectives: one part places in perspective the views of Proudhon and the characteristics of stock market activity under the Second Empire whilst the other part examines current-day aspects of the characteristics evoked by Proudhon. We are interested especially in the question of the regulation and that of the relevance today of certain accounting practices

Exact Multivariate Tests of Asset Pricing Models with Stable Asymmetric Distributions

In this paper, we propose exact inference procedures for asset pricing models that can be formulated in the framework of a multivariate linear regression (CAPM), allowing for stable error distributions. The normality assumption on the distribution of stock returns is usually rejected in empirical studies, due to excess kurtosis and asymmetry. To model such data, we propose a comprehensive statistical approach which allows for alternative - possibly asymmetric - heavy tailed distributions without the use of large-sample approximations. The methods suggested are based on Monte Carlo test techniques. Goodness-of-fit tests are formally incorporated to ensure that the error distributions considered are empirically sustainable, from which exact confidence sets for the unknown tail area and asymmetry parameters of the stable error distribution are derived. Tests for the efficiency of the market portfolio (zero intercepts) which explicitly allow for the presence of (unknown) nuisance parameter in the stable error distribution are derived. The methods proposed are applied to monthly returns on 12 portfolios of the New York Stock Exchange over the period 1926-1995 (5 year subperiods). We find that stable possibly skewed distributions provide statistically significant improvement in goodness-of-fit and lead to fewer rejections of the efficiency hypothesis