Origin, evolution and dynamic context of a Neoglacial lateral-frontal moraine at Austre Lovénbreen, Svalbard

Moraines marking the Neoglacial limits in Svalbard are commonly ice cored. Investigating the nature of this relict ice is important because it can aid our understanding of former glacier dynamics. This paper examines the composition of the lateral–frontal moraine associated with the Neoglacial limit at Austre Lovénbreen and assesses the likely geomorphological evolution. The moraine was investigated using ground-penetrating radar (GPR), with context being provided by structural mapping of the glacier based on an oblique aerial image from 1936 and vertical aerial imagery from 2003. Multiple up-glacier dipping reflectors and syncline structures are found in the GPR surveys. The reflectors are most clearly defined in lateral positions, where the moraine is substantially composed of ice. The frontal area of the moraine is dominantly composed of debris. The core of the lateral part of the moraine is likely to consist of stacked sequences of basal ice that have been deformed by strong longitudinal compression. The long term preservation potential of the ice-dominated lateral moraine is negligible, whereas the preservation of the debris-dominated frontal moraine is high. A glacier surface bulge, identified on the 1936 aerial imagery, provides evidence that Austre Lovénbreen has previously displayed surge activity, although it is highly unlikely to do so in the near future in its current state. This research shows the value of relict buried ice that is preserved in landforms to aiding our understanding of former glacier characteristics

Quantifying the causal effects of 20 mph zones on road casualties in London via doubly robust estimation

© 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.This paper estimates the causal effect of 20 mph zones on road casualties in London. Potential confounders in the key relationship of interest are included within outcome regression and propensity score models, and the models are then combined to form a doubly robust estimator. A total of 234 treated zones and 2844 potential control zones are included in the data sample. The propensity score model is used to select a viable control group which has common support in the covariate distributions. We compare the doubly robust estimates with those obtained using three other methods: inverse probability weighting, regression adjustment, and propensity score matching. The results indicate that 20 mph zones have had a significant causal impact on road casualty reduction in both absolute and proportional terms

Modelling the propagation of infectious disease via transportation networks

The dynamics of human mobility have been known to play a critical role in the spread of infectious diseases like COVID-19. In this paper, we present a simple compact way to model the transmission of infectious disease through transportation networks using widely available aggregate mobility data in the form of a zone-level origin-destination (OD) travel flow matrix. A key feature of our model is that it not only captures the propagation of infection via direct connections between zones (first-order effects) as in most existing studies but also transmission effects that are due to subsequent interactions in the remainder of the system (higher-order effects). We demonstrate the importance of capturing higher-order effects in a simulation study. We then apply our model to study the first wave of COVID-19 infections in (i) Italy, and, (ii) the New York Tri-State area. We use daily data on mobility between Italian provinces (province-level OD data) and between Tri-State Area counties (county-level OD data), and daily reported caseloads at the same geographical levels. Our empirical results indicate substantial predictive power, particularly during the early stages of the outbreak. Our model forecasts at least 85% of the spatial variation in observed weekly COVID-19 cases. Most importantly, our model delivers crucial metrics to identify target areas for intervention

Approximate Bayesian inference for doubly robust estimation

Doubly robust estimators are typically constructed by combining outcome regression and propensity score models to satisfy moment restrictions that ensure consistent estimation of causal quantities provided at least one of the component models is correctly specified. Standard Bayesian methods are difficult to apply because restricted moment models do not imply fully specified likelihood functions. This paper proposes a Bayesian bootstrap approach to derive approximate posterior predictive distributions that are doubly robust for estimation of causal quantities. Simulations show that the approach performs well under various sources of misspecification of the outcome regression or propensity score models. The estimator is applied in a case study of the effect of area deprivation on the incidence of child pedestrian casualties in British cities

Uncomfortable images produce non-sparse responses in a model of primary visual cortex

The processing of visual information by the nervous system requires significant metabolic resources. To minimise the energy needed, our visual system appears to be optimised to encode typical natural images as efficiently as possible. One consequence of this is that some atypical images will produce inefficient, non-optimal responses.Here, we show that images that are reported to be uncomfortable to view, and that can trigger migraine attacks and epileptic seizures, produce relatively non-sparse responses in a model of the primary visual cortex. In comparison to the responses to typical inputs, responses to aversive images were larger and less sparse. We propose that this difference in the neural population response may be one cause of visual discomfort in the general population, and can produce more extreme responses in clinical populations such as migraine and epilepsy sufferers

Safety effects of the London cycle superhighways on cycle collisions

This paper evaluates the effects of the London Cycle Superhighways (CS) on cycle collisions. A total of 45 CS segments and 375 control segments are observed for a period of 8 years in London. Variables such as road characteristics, crash history and socio-economic in formation are included in the data set. Traffic characteristics Including traffic volume, cycle volume and traffic speed are obtained from Department for Transport. We first estimate the safety effects on the CS routes using Empirical Bayes methods. Then propensity score matching methods are also applied for comparison. The introduction of cycle superhighways caused cycling traffic volumes to increase dramatically along CS routes with no significant impacts on collision rates. Our models find that the increase in traffic was associated with a rise in annual total cycle collisions of around 2.6 per km (38% in percentage). However, when we re-estimate the effects based on cycle collision rates rather than levels, our results also show that the CS routes are not more dangerous or safer than the control roads. Among the four CS routes, CS3 performs the best in protecting cyclists with a large proportion of segregated lanes whilst the cyclists have to share the lanes with motorists on other routes. It is recommended that consistent safety designs should be applied on all CS routes for a safer cycling environment

Determinants of Rolling Stock Maintenance Cost in Metros

This study examines the economies of scale and the determinants of rolling stock maintenance costs for 24 urban rail transit operators. The estimates reveal significant returns to scale in maintenance for both per car and per car kilometre. The econometric analysis also provides statistically significant cost elasticities for wages and staff hours, suggesting substitution effects between factors. Staff outsourcing is found to significantly decrease costs, whereas higher levels of fleet availability at the peak and rolling stock failures increase it. The effect of the age of rolling stock and the network is negligible on rolling stock maintenance costs; however, the analysis reveals a downward trend in rolling stock costs among the metros in the CoMET and Nova consortia