The energy consumption-GDP nexus: Panel data evidence from 88 countries

This paper uses panel data from 88 countries to examine the relationship between per capita GDP and per capita energy consumption. The results show that per capita GDP and per capita energy consumption are cointegrated. Also, there is a two-way short-run, long-run and strong causality between the growth of GDP and growth of energy consumption. These results are in contrast to almost all other existing studies.panel data; energy consumption; economic growth

Saving and economic growth in India

This paper studies the relationship between GDP and saving in India. During the last few years, the saving rate has fallen marginally raising concern that it might adversely affect economic growth. We take a long run view. We explore whether there is a long run relationship between GDP and saving. In doing so, we distinguish between gross domestic saving and gross domestic private saving. We posit that gross domestic private saving rather than gross domestic saving is more important in determining GDP. We find that both gross domestic saving and gross domestic private saving are cointegrated with GDP. However, causality tests between the growth of gross domestic saving/the growth of private domestic saving and the growth of GDP indicate that the causality does not run in any direction.saving; economic growth; India

Patents, Innovations and Economic Growth in Japan and South Korea: Evidence from individual country and panel data

This paper looks at the relationship between patents and economic growth in Japan and South Korea using both individual country and panel data. For the econometric estimation, we use annual data for 1963-2005. For Japan, we find that the logarithms of real GDP and the number of patents are cointegrated. For South Korea, we do find such evidence. For Japan, we find a two-way causality between the growth of real GDP and the growth of the number of patents. For panel data, we find that the logarithms of real GDP and the number of patents are cointegrated. We find some evidence that the growth of real GDP Granger causes the growth of the number of patents. However, we do not find any evidence of reverse causality.patents; innovations; panel data

Toda and Yamamoto Causality Tests Between Per Capita Saving and Per Capita GDP for India

This paper looks at the relationship between per capita saving and per capita GDP for India using the Toda and Yamamoto tests of Granger causality. Data are for 1950-2004. We distinguish between three types of saving. These are household saving, corporate saving and public saving. The results show that there is no causality between per capita GDP and per capita household saving/per capita corporate saving in either direction. However, there is bi-directional causality between per capita household saving and per capita corporate saving.Toda-Yamamoto; causality

Safety, profitability and the load factor for airlines in the USA

This paper studies the causal relationship between safety, profitability and the load factor for US airlines taking airline deregulation into account. The results indicate that there is some evidence that profitability and the growth of load factor cause fatalities/accidents. Bivariate causality tests show that profitability does not cause fatalities/accidents.

Does the Wagner’s Law hold for Thailand? A Time Series Study

Wagner’s Law suggests that as the GDP of a country increases, so does its government expenditure. We test for the Law for Thailand using recent advances in econometric techniques. Both total and per capita GDP and government expenditure are used. Ng-Perron unit root tests show that all variables are integrated of order 1. Toda-Yamamoto tests of Granger causality show that there is no causality flowing from either direction between GDP and government expenditure. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) tests of cointegration show very weak evidence of a long-run relationship between GDP and government expenditure. Thus, we do not find much evidence that the Wagner’s Law holds for Thailand.Wagner's Law; causality

Macroeconometric modeling of saving and investment for Mercosur countries

In the long run, the present value of current account balance can not grow indefinitely large without precipitating in a macroeconomic crisis. This simple insight produces an econometrically testable relationship between saving and investment. We use data for four countries, which belong to the Mercosur Common Trade Agreement: Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay. The results indicate that there is no long run relationship between saving and investment in these countries. Thus, Mercosur is likely to act as a palliative against such a possibility in the future.

Relationships among Household Saving, Public Saving, Corporate Saving and Economic Growth in India

This paper examines the relationship between the growth rates of household saving, public saving, corporate saving and economic growth in India using multivariate Granger causality tests. The conventional wisdom suggests that the causality flows from saving to economic growth. We show that the causality goes in the opposite direction for India. Hence, higher saving is the consequence of higher economic growth and not a cause.Economic growth; public saving; corporate saving; household saving

Financial development and economic growth: The case of eight Asian countries

This paper looks at the relationship between financial development and economic growth using time series data for eight Asian countries. First, we estimate augmented production functions where a financial development variable is added. Second, we conduct multivariate causality tests between the growth rate of income and the growth rates of the financial development variables. The regression results show a positive and significant relationship between the income variables and financial variables for India, Malaysia, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The multivariate causality tests show a two-way causality relationship between the income and the financial variables for India and Malaysia, one-way causality from financial variables to income variables for Japan and Thailand and reverse causality for Korea, Pakistan and Philippines. Thus, our empirical results do not unambiguously support the general view of a clear and positive relationship between financial development and economic growth.finanacial development; economic growth; Asian countries

Does Black’s Hypothesis for Output Variability Hold for Mexico?

Using two data series, namely GDP and the index of industrial production, we study the relationship between output variability and the growth rate of output. Ng-Perron unit root test shows that the growth rate of GDP is non-stationary but the growth rate of industrial output is stationary. Thus, we use the ARCH-M model for the monthly data of industrial output. A number of specifications (with and without a dummy variable) are used. In all cases, the results show that output variability has a negative but insignificant effect on the growth rate of output.economic growth; volatility; variability; business cycle fluctuations; GARCH models