Dengue transmission risk in a changing climate: Bangladesh is likely to experience a longer dengue fever season in the future

Our changing climate is already affecting the transmission of dengue fever, the fastest growing vector-borne viral disease in the world. This issue presents a significant public health concern for some nations, such as Bangladesh, which already experience regular seasonal outbreaks of dengue fever under present day conditions. To provide guidance for proactive public health planning to potentially mitigate the severity of future outbreaks, we explored the impact of climate change on dengue infections by calculating the change in vectorial capacity (VC) of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes at a seasonal level for all regions in Bangladesh under two scenarios for future atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. For each of the four climate models used, and for both scenarios, our analysis revealed that the annual VC remains at a level that would enable potential dengue epidemic transmission in all regions in Bangladesh. We found a slight decline in VC in half of the regions examined during the last two decades of the 21st century for the lower-concentration scenario, with a pronounced decline in VC in all geographic regions beginning in 2060 for the higher-concentration scenario. The likely reason is that in many regions, warming will lead to sub-optimal mosquito breeding temperatures. However, seasonal differences in VC will dissipate as the climate warms, to the point that there is almost no observable seasonality for the higher-concentration scenario during the last two decades of this century. This finding suggests the dengue transmission season could eventually extend to all-year-round transmission, with outbreaks occurring at any time. Consequently, disease surveillance and control activities would need to be geographically and temporally adapted to mitigate dengue epidemic risk in response to climate change

Modelling testing and response strategies for COVID-19 outbreaks in remote Australian Aboriginal communities

Background: Remote Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities have potential to be severely impacted by COVID-19, with multiple factors predisposing to increased transmission and disease severity. Our modelling aims to inform optimal public health responses. Methods: An individual-based simulation model represented SARS-CoV2 transmission in communities ranging from 100 to 3500 people, comprised of large, interconnected households. A range of strategies for case finding, quarantining of contacts, testing, and lockdown were examined, following the silent introduction of a case. Results: Multiple secondary infections are likely present by the time the first case is identified. Quarantine of close contacts, defined by extended household membership, can reduce peak infection prevalence from 60 to 70% to around 10%, but subsequent waves may occur when community mixing resumes. Exit testing significantly reduces ongoing transmission. Concurrent lockdown of non-quarantined households for 14 days is highly effective for epidemic control and reduces overall testing requirements; peak prevalence of the initial outbreak can be constrained to less than 5%, and the final community attack rate to less than 10% in modelled scenarios. Lockdown also mitigates the effect of a delay in the initial response. Compliance with lockdown must be at least 80–90%, however, or epidemic control will be lost. Conclusions: A SARS-CoV-2 outbreak will spread rapidly in remote communities. Prompt case detection with quarantining of extended-household contacts and a 14 day lockdown for all other residents, combined with exit testing for all, is the most effective strategy for rapid containment. Compliance is crucial, underscoring the need for community supported, culturally sensitive responses

A systematic review of scabies transmission models and data to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of scabies interventions

© 2019 van der Linden et al. Background: Scabies is a common dermatological condition, affecting more than 130 million people at any time. To evaluate and/or predict the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of scabies interventions, disease transmission modelling can be used. Objective: To review published scabies models and data to inform the design of a comprehensive scabies transmission modelling framework to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of scabies interventions. Methods: Systematic literature search in PubMed, Medline, Embase, CINAHL, and the Cochrane Library identified scabies studies published since the year 2000. Selected papers included modelling studies and studies on the life cycle of scabies mites, patient quality of life and resource use. Reference lists of reviews were used to identify any papers missed through the search strategy. Strengths and limitations of identified scabies models were evaluated and used to design a modelling framework. Potential model inputs were identified and discussed. Findings: Four scabies models were published: a Markov decision tree, two compartmental models, and an agent-based, network-dependent Monte Carlo model. None of the models specifically addressed crusted scabies, which is associated with high morbidity, mortality, and increased transmission. There is a lack of reliable, comprehensive information about scabies biology and the impact this disease has on patients and society. Discussion: Clinicians and health economists working in the field of scabies are encouraged to use the current review to inform disease transmission modelling and economic evaluations on interventions against scabies

Properties of small molecular drug loading and diffusion in a fluorinated PEG hydrogel studied by ^1H molecular diffusion NMR and ^(19)F spin diffusion NMR

R_f-PEG (fluoroalkyl double-ended poly(ethylene glycol)) hydrogel is potentially useful as a drug delivery depot due to its advanced properties of sol–gel two-phase coexistence and low surface erosion. In this study, ^1H molecular diffusion nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) and ^(19)F spin diffusion NMR were used to probe the drug loading and diffusion properties of the R_f-PEG hydrogel for small anticancer drugs, 5-fluorouracil (FU) and its hydrophobic analog, 1,3-dimethyl-5-fluorouracil (DMFU). It was found that FU has a larger apparent diffusion coefficient than that of DMFU, and the diffusion of the latter was more hindered. The result of ^(19)F spin diffusion NMR for the corresponding freeze-dried samples indicates that a larger portion of DMFU resided in the R_f core/IPDU intermediate-layer region (where IPDU refers to isophorone diurethane, as a linker to interconnect the R_f group and the PEG chain) than that of FU while the opposite is true in the PEG–water phase. To understand the experimental data, a diffusion model was proposed to include: (1) hindered diffusion of the drug molecules in the R_f core/IPDU-intermediate-layer region; (2) relatively free diffusion of the drug molecules in the PEG-water phase (or region); and (3) diffusive exchange of the probe molecules between the above two regions. This study also shows that molecular diffusion NMR combined with spin diffusion NMR is useful in studying the drug loading and diffusion properties in hydrogels for the purpose of drug delivery applications

How accurate is an LCD screen version of the Pelli–Robson test?

Purpose: To evaluate the accuracy and repeatability of a computer-generated Pelli–Robson test displayed on liquid crystal display (LCD) systems compared to a standard Pelli–Robson chart. Methods: Two different randomized crossover experiments were carried out for two different LCD systems for 32 subjects: 6 females and 10 males (40.5 ± 13.0 years) and 9 females and 7 males (27.8 ± 12.2 years), respectively, in the first and second experiment. Two repeated measurements were taken with the printed Pelli–Robson test and with the LCDs at 1 and 3 m. To test LCD reliability, measurements were repeated after 1 week. Results: In Experiment 1, contrast sensitivity (CS) measured with LCD1 resulted significantly higher than Pelli–Robson both at 1 and at 3 m of about 0.20 log 1/C in both eyes (p < 0.01). Bland–Altman plots showed a proportional bias for LCD1 measures. LCD1 measurements showed reasonable repeatability: ICC was 0.83 and 0.65 at 1 and 3 m, respectively. In Experiment 2, CS measured with LCD2 resulted significantly lower than Pelli–Robson both at 1 and at 3 m of about 0.10 log 1/C in both eyes (p < 0.01). Bland–Altman plots did not show any proportional bias for LCD2 measures. LCD2 measurements showed sufficient repeatability: ICC resulted 0.51 and 0.65 at 1 and 3 m, respectively. Conclusions: Computer-generated versions of Pelli–Robson test, displayed on LCD systems, do not provide accurate results compared to classic Pelli–Robson printed version. Clinicians should consider that Pelli–Robson computer-generated versions could be non-interchangeable to the printed version

Dazzle Camouflage Affects Speed Perception

Movement is the enemy of camouflage: most attempts at concealment are disrupted by motion of the target. Faced with this problem, navies in both World Wars in the twentieth century painted their warships with high contrast geometric patterns: so-called “dazzle camouflage”. Rather than attempting to hide individual units, it was claimed that this patterning would disrupt the perception of their range, heading, size, shape and speed, and hence reduce losses from, in particular, torpedo attacks by submarines. Similar arguments had been advanced earlier for biological camouflage. Whilst there are good reasons to believe that most of these perceptual distortions may have occurred, there is no evidence for the last claim: changing perceived speed. Here we show that dazzle patterns can distort speed perception, and that this effect is greatest at high speeds. The effect should obtain in predators launching ballistic attacks against rapidly moving prey, or modern, low-tech battlefields where handheld weapons are fired from short ranges against moving vehicles. In the latter case, we demonstrate that in a typical situation involving an RPG7 attack on a Land Rover the reduction in perceived speed is sufficient to make the grenade miss where it was aimed by about a metre, which could be the difference between survival or not for the occupants of the vehicle

The experience of providing young people attending general practice with an online risk assessment tool to assess their own sexual health risk

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Targeted chlamydia screening has been advocated to reduce chlamydia associated reproductive sequelae. General practitioners are well positioned to play a major role in chlamydia control. The primary aim of this pilot study was to measure the effect of offering an online sexual health assessment tool, <it>Youth Check Your Risk</it>, on chlamydia testing rates among young people attending general practices. The secondary aim was to test the acceptability of the tool among general practitioners and young people.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>General practitioners at three practices in Melbourne, Australia, referred patients aged 16 to 24 years to <it>Youth Check Your Risk </it><url>http://www.checkyourrisk.org.au</url> for use post-consultation between March to October 2007. The proportion of young people tested for chlamydia before and during the implementation of the tool was compared. Acceptability was assessed through a structured interviewer-administered questionnaire with general practitioners, and anonymous online data provided by <it>Youth Check Your Risk </it>users.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The intervention did not result in any significant increases in the proportion of 16 to 24 year old males (2.7% to 3.0%) or females (6.3% to 6.4%) tested for chlamydia. A small increase in the proportion of 16 to 19 year old females tested was seen (4.1% to 7.2%). Of the 2997 patients seen during the intervention phase, 871 (29.1%) were referred to <it>Youth Check Your Risk </it>and 120 used it (13.8%). Major reasons for low referral rates reported by practitioners included lack of time, discomfort with raising the issue of testing, and difficulty in remembering to refer patients.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Offering an online sexual risk assessment tool in general practice did not significantly increase the proportion of young people tested for chlamydia, with GPs identifying a number of barriers to referring young people to <it>Youth Check Your Risk</it>. Future interventions aimed at increasing chlamydia screening in general practice with the aid of an online risk assessment tool need to identify and overcome barriers to testing.</p

Quantitative permeability imaging of plant tissues

A method for mapping tissue permeability based on time-dependent diffusion measurements is presented. A pulsed field gradient sequence to measure the diffusion encoding time dependence of the diffusion coefficients based on the detection of stimulated spin echoes to enable long diffusion times is combined with a turbo spin echo sequence for fast NMR imaging (MRI). A fitting function is suggested to describe the time dependence of the apparent diffusion constant in porous (bio-)materials, even if the time range of the apparent diffusion coefficient is limited due to relaxation of the magnetization. The method is demonstrated by characterizing anisotropic cell dimensions and permeability on a subpixel level of different tissues of a carrot (Daucus carota) taproot in the radial and axial directions

The pharmacological effect of BGC20-1531, a novel prostanoid EP4 receptor antagonist, in the Prostaglandin E2 human model of headache

Using a human Prostaglandin E2 (PGE2) model of headache, we examined whether a novel potent and selective EP4 receptor antagonist, BGC20-1531, may prevent headache and dilatation of the middle cerebral (MCA) and superficial temporal artery (STA). In a three-way cross-over trial, eight healthy volunteers were randomly allocated to receive 200 and 400 mg BGC20-1531 and placebo, followed by a 25-min infusion of PGE2. We recorded headache intensity on a verbal rating scale, MCA blood flow velocity and STA diameter. There was no difference in headache response or prevention of the dilation of the MCA or the STA (P > 0.05) with either dose of BGC20-1531 relative to placebo, although putative therapeutic exposures were not reached in all volunteers. In conclusion, these data suggest that the other EP receptors may be involved in PGE2 induced headache and dilatation in normal subjects