Empirical forecasting practices of a British university

This article is based on a single case study aimed at examining behavioral issues of forecasting, in particular the role and practice of forecasting in a British university settings. Key variables were identified in establishing associations between the variables that provide suitable criteria for the purpose of this study. Data collection was based on questionnaires distributed to people involved and interviews which were held with prominent staff of the University. Fisher-exact tests were performed to identify significant associations between variables. Results indicated the various levels of perceptions and practices of forecasting produced by the people involved at the University. The study implies that useful insights can be gathered through forecasting from a different perspective of the non-profit making service industry

Strategy selection and outcome prediction in sport using dynamic learning for stochastic processes

We study reliability equivalence factors of a system of independent and identical components with exponentiated Weibull lifetimes. The system has n subsystems connected in parallel and subsystem i has mi components connected in series, i=1,…,n. We consider improving the reliability of the system by (a) a reduction method and (b) several duplication methods: (i) hot duplication; (ii) cold duplication with perfect switching; (iii) cold duplication with imperfect switching. We compute two types of reliability equivalence factors: survival equivalence factors and mean equivalence factors. Although our methods adapt to allow for general lifetime models, we use the exponentiated Weibull distribution because it is flexible and enables comparisons with other reliability equivalence studies. The example we present demonstrates the potential for applying these methods to address specific questions that arise when attempting to improve the reliability of simple systems or simple configurations of possibly complex subsystems in many diverse applications

Soil respiration in northern forests exposed to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide and ozone

The aspen free-air CO 2 and O 3 enrichment (FACTS II–FACE) study in Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA, is designed to understand the mechanisms by which young northern deciduous forest ecosystems respond to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and elevated tropospheric ozone (O 3 ) in a replicated, factorial, field experiment. Soil respiration is the second largest flux of carbon (C) in these ecosystems, and the objective of this study was to understand how soil respiration responded to the experimental treatments as these fast-growing stands of pure aspen and birch + aspen approached maximum leaf area. Rates of soil respiration were typically lowest in the elevated O 3 treatment. Elevated CO 2 significantly stimulated soil respiration (8–26%) compared to the control treatment in both community types over all three growing seasons. In years 6–7 of the experiment, the greatest rates of soil respiration occurred in the interaction treatment (CO 2  + O 3 ), and rates of soil respiration were 15–25% greater in this treatment than in the elevated CO 2 treatment, depending on year and community type. Two of the treatments, elevated CO 2 and elevated CO 2  + O 3 , were fumigated with 13 C-depleted CO 2 , and in these two treatments we used standard isotope mixing models to understand the proportions of new and old C in soil respiration. During the peak of the growing season, C fixed since the initiation of the experiment in 1998 (new C) accounted for 60–80% of total soil respiration. The isotope measurements independently confirmed that more new C was respired from the interaction treatment compared to the elevated CO 2 treatment. A period of low soil moisture late in the 2003 growing season resulted in soil respiration with an isotopic signature 4–6‰ enriched in 13 C compared to sample dates when the percentage soil moisture was higher. In 2004, an extended period of low soil moisture during August and early September, punctuated by a significant rainfall event, resulted in soil respiration that was temporarily 4–6‰ more depleted in 13 C. Up to 50% of the Earth’s forests will see elevated concentrations of both CO 2 and O 3 in the coming decades and these interacting atmospheric trace gases stimulated soil respiration in this study.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/45867/1/442_2006_Article_381.pd

Assessing student teams developing mathematical models applied to business and industrial mathematics

Using case studies and group work, this project attempted to provide students with experience of business and industrial working practices and also to address the issue of how to solve practical mathematical problems. Students were organised into teams and tasked with solving a problem presented in the form of a real world industrial case study. Each group was assessed on their problem solving abilities, mathematical modelling skills and also on their team work and contribution to the group. Industrial partners were also invited to judge the final solutions presented by the group and feedback was offered, based on the ‘real world’ situation presented by the case studies