Long range correlations generated by phase separation. Exact results from field theory

We consider near-critical planar systems with boundary conditions inducing phase separation. While order parameter correlations decay exponentially in pure phases, we show by direct field theoretical derivation how phase separation generates long range correlations in the direction parallel to the interface, and determine their exact analytic form. The latter leads to specific contributions to the structure factor of the interface

How well can a seasonal forecast system represent 3 hourly compound wind and precipitation extremes over Europe?

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available on open access from IOP Publishing via the DOI in this recordExtreme precipitation and winds can have a severe impact on society, particularly when they occur at the same place and time. In this study the Met Office's Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5) model ensembles are evaluated against the reanalysis dataset ERA5, to find out how well they represent 3 hourly extreme precipitation, extreme wind and extreme co-occurring events over Europe. Although substantial differences in magnitude are found between precipitation and wind extremes between the datasets, the conditional probability of exceedance above the 99th percentile, which measures the co-occurrence between the two extremes, compares well spatially over Europe. However, significant differences in frequency are found around and over some areas of high topography. Generally GloSea5 underestimates this co-occurrence over sea. The model's co-occurring events at individual locations investigated occur with very similar synoptic patterns to ERA5, indicating that the compound extremes are produced for the correct reasons.University of Exeter College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical SciencesMet Office Hadley Centre Climate Programm

Compound precipitation and wind extremes over Europe and their relationship to extratropical cyclones

This is the final version. Available on open access from Elsevier via the DOI in this recordWe acknowledge the data providers in the ECA&D project. Klein Tank, A.M.G. and Coauthors, 2002. Daily dataset of 20th-century surface air temperature and precipitation series for the European Climate Assessment. Int. J. of Climatol., 22, 1441–1453. Data and metadata available at https://www.ecad.euWe acknowledge the E-OBS dataset and the data providers in the ECA&D project (https://www.ecad.eu). Cornes, R., G. van der Schrier, E.J.M. van den Besselaar, and P.D. Jones. 2018: An Ensemble Version of the E-OBS Temperature and Precipitation Datasets, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 123. doi:10.1029/2017JD028200Extratropical cyclones and their associated extreme precipitation and winds can have a severe impact on society and the co-occurrence between the two extremes is important when assessing risk. In this study the extremal dependency measure, χ, is used to quantify the co-occurrence of extreme precipitation and wind gusts, and is investigated at individual grid points and spatially over Europe. Results using three observational datasets and a higher spatial and temporal resolution version of ERA5 than previously used confirm previous studies. Over Europe high co-occurrence is found over western coasts and low co-occurrence is found over eastern coasts. All datasets have qualitatively similar spatial patterns over most regions of Europe excluding some regions of high topography where ERA5 χ values are much larger. ERA5 represents the timings of daily extreme co-occurring events well, compared to observations. The differences in precipitation accumulation timescales are also accounted for by considering hourly, 6, 24 and 48 hourly co-occurrence. In a few regions co-occurrence changes with longer accumulations, indicating the different speeds and sizes of weather systems affecting these regions. χ in most regions has little increase by allowing a 24 h lag and lead between the precipitation and wind, with a few exceptions where χ is increased by up to 24%. Regions with the larger of these increases are on or around elevated topography. Using an objective feature tracking method, insight into the spatial pattern of extreme precipitation and wind within cyclones over Europe is given. As well as suggesting how many hours apart the extremes occur from one another in a particular location. Extreme co-occurring events are associated with cyclones far more of the time than non extreme events. Given an extreme co-occurring event the chance of a cyclone being within 1110 km is more than 70% for much of Europe. Regions with low co-occurrence have extremes caused by different weather systems and regions with large co-occurrence have both extremes caused by the same weather system. Cyclones linked to extreme events, particularly co-occurring and extreme wind, have larger intensity than those not and for most of Europe these cyclones also have faster mean speed.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programm

The inevitable youthfulness of known high-redshift radio galaxies

Radio galaxies can be seen out to very high redshifts, where in principle they can serve as probes of the early evolution of the Universe. Here we show that for any model of radio-galaxy evolution in which the luminosity decreases with time after an initial rapid increase (that is, essentially all reasonable models), all observable high-redshift radio-galaxies must be seen when the lobes are less than 10^7 years old. This means that high-redshift radio galaxies can be used as a high-time-resolution probe of evolution in the early Universe. Moreover, this result helps to explain many observed trends of radio-galaxy properties with redshift [(i) the `alignment effect' of optical emission along radio-jet axes, (ii) the increased distortion in radio structure, (iii) the decrease in physical sizes, (iv) the increase in radio depolarisation, and (v) the increase in dust emission] without needing to invoke explanations based on cosmology or strong evolution of the surrounding intergalactic medium with cosmic time, thereby avoiding conflict with current theories of structure formation.Comment: To appear in Nature. 4 pages, 2 colour figures available on request. Also available at http://www-astro.physics.ox.ac.uk/~km

Is metal theft committed by organized crime groups, and why does it matter?

Using the example of metal theft in the United Kingdom, this study used mixed methods to evaluate the accuracy of police estimates of the involvement of organised crime groups (OCGs) in crime. Police estimate that 20-30% of metal theft is committed by OCGs, but this study found that only 0.5% of metal thieves had previous convictions for offences related to OCGs, that only 1.3% were linked to OCGs by intelligence information, that metal thieves typically offended close to their homes and that almost no metal thefts involved sophisticated offence methods. It appears that police may over-estimate the involvement of OCGs in some types of crime. The reasons for and consequences of this over-estimation are discussed

MLlib: Machine learning in Apache Spark

Apache Spark is a popular open-source platform for large-scale data processing that is well-suited for iterative machine learning tasks. In this paper we present MLLIB, Spark's open-source distributed machine learning library. MLLIB provides efficient functionality for a wide range of learning settings and includes several underlying statistical, optimization, and linear algebra primitives. Shipped with Spark, MLLIB supports several languages and provides a high-level API that leverages Spark's rich ecosystem to simplify the development of end-to-end machine learning pipelines. MLLIB has experienced a rapid growth due to its vibrant open-source community of over 140 contributors, and includes extensive documentation to support further growth and to let users quickly get up to speed

Associations of sedentary behaviour, physical activity, blood pressure and anthropometric measures with cardiorespiratory fitness in children with cerebral palsy

Background - Children with cerebral palsy (CP) have poor cardiorespiratory fitness in comparison to their peers with typical development, which may be due to low levels of physical activity. Poor cardiorespiratory fitness may contribute to increased cardiometabolic risk. Purpose - The aim of this study was to determine the association between sedentary behaviour, physical activity and cardiorespiratory fitness in children with CP. An objective was to determine the association between cardiorespiratory fitness, anthropometric measures and blood pressure in children with CP. Methods- This study included 55 ambulatory children with CP [mean (SD) age 11.3 (0.2) yr, range 6-17 yr; Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS) levels I and II]. Anthropometric measures (BMI, waist circumference and waist-height ratio) and blood pressure were taken. Cardiorespiratory fitness was measured using a 10 m shuttle run test. Children were classified as low, middle and high fitness according to level achieved on the test using reference curves. Physical activity was measured by accelerometry over 7 days. In addition to total activity, time in sedentary behaviour and light, moderate, vigorous, and sustained moderate-to-vigorous activity (≥10 min bouts) were calculated. Results - Multiple regression analyses revealed that vigorous activity (β = 0.339, p<0.01), sustained moderate-to-vigorous activity (β = 0.250, p<0.05) and total activity (β = 0.238, p<0.05) were associated with level achieved on the shuttle run test after adjustment for age, sex and GMFCS level. Children with high fitness spent more time in vigorous activity than children with middle fitness (p<0.05). Shuttle run test level was negatively associated with BMI (r2 = -0.451, p<0.01), waist circumference (r2 = -0.560, p<0.001), waist-height ratio (r2 = -0.560, p<0.001) and systolic blood pressure (r2 = -0.306, p<0.05) after adjustment for age, sex and GMFCS level. Conclusions - Participation in physical activity, particularly at a vigorous intensity, is associated with high cardiorespiratory fitness in children with CP. Low cardiorespiratory fitness is associated with increased cardiometabolic risk

Does familial risk for alcohol use disorder predict alcohol hangover?

Positive family history of alcohol use disorder (FHP), a variable associated with propensity for alcohol use disorder (AUD), has been linked with elevated hangover frequency and severity, after controlling for alcohol use. This implies that hangover experiences may be related to AUD. However, inadequate control of alcohol consumption levels, low alcohol dose and testing for hangover during the intoxication phase detract from these findings. Here, we present further data pertinent to understanding the relationship between family history and alcohol hangover. Study 1 compared past year hangover frequency in a survey of 24 FHP and 118 family history negative (FHN) individuals. Study 2 applied a quasi-experimental naturalistic approach assessing concurrent hangover severity in 17 FHP and 32 FHN individuals the morning after drinking alcohol. Both studies applied statistical control for alcohol consumption levels. In Study 1, both FHP status and estimated blood alcohol concentration on the heaviest drinking evening of the past month predicted the frequency of hangover symptoms experienced over the previous 12 months. In Study 2, estimated blood alcohol concentration the previous evening predicted hangover severity but FHP status did not. FHP, indicating familial risk for AUD, was not associated with concurrent hangover severity but was associated with increased estimates of hangover frequency the previous year