A Model for the Global Crude Oil Market Using a Multi-Pool MCP Approach

This paper proposes a partial equilibrium model to describe the global crude oil market. Pricing on the global crude oil market is strongly influenced by price indices such as WTI (USA) and Brent (Northwest Europe). Adapting an approach for pool-based electricity markets, the model captures the particularities of these benchmark price indices and their influence on the market of physical oil. This approach is compared to a model with bilateral trade relations as is traditionally used in models of energy markets. With these two model approaches, we compute the equilibrium solutions for several market power scenarios to investigate whether the multi-pool approach may be better suited than the bilateral trade model to describe the crude oil market. The pool-based approach yields, in general, results closer to observed quantities and prices, with the best fit obtained by the scenario of an OPEC oligopoly. We conclude that the price indices indeed are important on the global crude market in determining the prices and flows, and that OPEC effectively exerts market power, but in a non-cooperative way.crude oil, market structure, cartel, pool market, simulation model

Lensing and high-z supernova surveys

Gravitational lensing causes the distribution of observed brightnesses of standard candles at a given redshift to be highly non-gaussian. The distribution is strongly, and asymmetrically, peaked at a value less than the expected value in a homogeneous Robertson-Walker universe. Therefore, given any small sample of observations in an inhomogeneous universe, the most likely observed luminosity is at flux values less than the Robertson-Walker value. This paper explores the impact of this systematic error due to lensing upon surveys predicated on measuring standard candle brightnesses. We re-analyze recent results from the high-z supernova team (Riess et al. 1998), both when most of the matter in the universe is in the form of compact objects (represented by the empty-beam expression, corresponding to the maximal case of lensing), and when the matter is continuously distributed in galaxies. We find that the best-fit model remains unchanged (at Omega_m=0, Omega_Lambda=0.45), but the confidence contours change size and shape, becoming larger (and thus allowing a broader range of parameter space) and dropping towards higher values of matter density, Omega_m (or correspondingly, lower values of the cosmological constant, Omega_Lambda). These effects are slight when the matter is continuously distributed. However, the effects become considerably more important if most of the matter is in compact objects. For example, neglecting lensing, the Omega_m=0.5, Omega_Lambda=0.5 model is more than 2 sigma away from the best fit. In the empty-beam analysis, this cosmology is at 1 sigma.Comment: 11 pages, 3 ps figures. uses aaspp4.sty. accepted to ApJ Letters. includes analysis of lensing due to matter continuously distributed in galaxie

Using gravitational-wave standard sirens

Gravitational waves (GWs) from supermassive binary black hole (BBH) inspirals are potentially powerful standard sirens (the GW analog to standard candles) (Schutz 1986, 2002). Because these systems are well-modeled, the space-based GW observatory LISA will be able to measure the luminosity distance (but not the redshift) to some distant massive BBH systems with 1-10% accuracy. This accuracy is largely limited by pointing error: GW sources generally are poorly localized on the sky. Localizing the binary independently (e.g., through association with an electromagnetic counterpart) greatly reduces this positional error. An electromagnetic counterpart may also allow determination of the event's redshift. In this case, BBH coalescence would constitute an extremely precise (better than 1%) standard candle visible to high redshift. In practice, gravitational lensing degrades this precision, though the candle remains precise enough to provide useful information about the distance-redshift relation. Even if very rare, these GW standard sirens would complement, and increase confidence in, other standard candles.Comment: 10 pages, 8 figures. ApJ, in pres

GRB beaming and gravitational-wave observations

Using the observed rate of short-duration gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) it is possible to make predictions for the detectable rate of compact binary coalescences in gravitational-wave detectors. These estimates rely crucially on the growing consensus that short gamma-ray bursts are associated with the merger of two neutron stars or a neutron star and a black hole, but otherwise make no assumptions beyond the observed rate of short GRBs. In particular, our results do not assume coincident gravitational wave and electromagnetic observations. We show that the non-detection of mergers in the existing LIGO/Virgo data constrains the progenitor masses and beaming angles of gamma-ray bursts. For future detectors, we find that the first detection of a NS-NS binary coalescence associated with the progenitors of short GRBs is likely to happen within the first 16 months of observation, even in the case of a modest network of observatories (e.g., only LIGO-Hanford and LIGO-Livingston) operating at modest sensitivities (e.g., advanced LIGO design sensitivity, but without signal recycling mirrors), and assuming a conservative distribution of beaming angles (e.g. all GRBs beamed at \theta=30 deg). Less conservative assumptions reduce the waiting time until first detection to weeks to months. Alternatively, the compact binary coalescence model of short GRBs can be ruled out if a binary is not seen within the first two years of operation of a LIGO-Hanford, LIGO-Livingston, and Virgo network at advanced design sensitivity. We also demonstrate that the rate of GRB triggered sources is less than the rate of untriggered events if \theta<30 deg, independent of the noise curve, network configuration, and observed GRB rate. Thus the first detection in GWs of a binary GRB progenitor is unlikely to be associated with a GRB