Separating Moral Hazard from Adverse Selection in Automobile Insurance: Longitudinal Evidence from France

This paper uses longitudinal data to perform tests of asymmetric information in the French automobile insurance market for the 1995-1997 period. This market is characterized by the presence of a regulated experience-rating scheme (bonus-malus). We demonstrate that the result of the test depends crucially on how the dynamic process between insurance claims and contract choice is modelled. We apply a Granger causality test controlling for the unobservables. We find evidence of moral hazard which we distinguish from adverse selection using a multivariate dynamic panel data model. Experience rating appears to lead high risk policyholders to choose contracts that involve less coverage over time. These policyholders respond to contract changes by increasing their unobservable efforts to reduce claims.Automobile insurance, road safety, asymmetric information, experience rating, moral hazard, adverse selection, dynamic panel data models, Granger causality test

Separating Moral Hazard from Adverse Selection and Learning in Automobile Insurance: Longitudinal Evidence from France

The identification of information problems in different markets is a challenging issue in the economic literature. In this paper, we study the identification of moral hazard from adverse selection and learning within the context of a multi-period dynamic model. We extend the model of Abbring et al. (2003) to include learning and insurance coverage choice over time. We derive testable empirical implications for panel data. We then perform tests using longitudinal data from France during the period 1995-1997. We find evidence of moral hazard among a sub-group of policyholders with less driving experience (less than 15 years). Policyholders with less than 5 years of experience have a combination of learning and moral hazard, whereas no residual information problem is found for policyholders with more than 15 years of experience.Moral hazard, adverse selection, learning, dynamic insurance contracting, panel data, empirical test

Adsorption and mobility of veterinary compounds on Moroccan soil; Case of Ivermectin

Ivermectin (IVR) is an antihelmitic and anti-parasitic substance used mainly in veterinary medicine worldwide. Its release in the environment could have a negative effect on living organisms and generate soil and groundwater pollution. The main objective of this work aimed at the study of the adsorption of IVR on soil from Gharb region in Morocco. Sorption tests were carried out according to conventional guideline by varying the mass of the adsorbate and the pH of the solution. Analysis was made by UV-visible spectrophotometer. Adsorption kinetics of IVR was rapid and equilibrium was reached within 20 minutes. The Freundlich and Langmuir isotherms models were compared and adsorption constants were calculated. Comparison between the two models showed that Freundlich model fitted best data while kinetic data fitted pseudo-second order. Thermodynamically, sorption process of IVR on the examined soils would be exothermic and controlled by physisorption Tests of mobility have shown strong adsorption of IVR in the soils tested After 7 batches of water percolated, less than 2% of the applied quantity has been detected

Effect of different amendments on the mobility of triflusulfuron methyl and imazapyr in Moroccan soil

La mobilité de deux herbicides, l’mazapyr et le triflusulfuron methyl (TMS), a été étudiée au laboratoire dans des colonnes de sol pauvre en matière organique et amendé avec de la paille ou de la tourbe ou des surfactants. Les résultats du biotest montrent que l’adsorption des deux herbicides croît avec la teneur en matière organique. La comparaison entre l’amendement en paille et celui en tourbe montre plus d’adsorption en faveur de la paille. D’un autre côté, l’amendement en surfactants s’accompagne d’une mobilité accrue du TMS, alors que pour l’imazapyr, la rétention est plus importante que dans le sol exempt de surfactants

Effect of different amendments on the mobility of triflusulfuron methyl and imazapyr in Moroccan soil

La mobilité de deux herbicides, l’mazapyr et le triflusulfuron methyl (TMS), a été étudiée au laboratoire dans des colonnes de sol pauvre en matière organique et amendé avec de la paille ou de la tourbe ou des surfactants. Les résultats du biotest montrent que l’adsorption des deux herbicides croît avec la teneur en matière organique. La comparaison entre l’amendement en paille et celui en tourbe montre plus d’adsorption en faveur de la paille. D’un autre côté, l’amendement en surfactants s’accompagne d’une mobilité accrue du TMS, alors que pour l’imazapyr, la rétention est plus importante que dans le sol exempt de surfactants

Unravelling the bacterial vaginosis-associated biofilm : a multiplex Gardnerella vaginalis and Atopobium vaginae fluorescence in situ hybridization assay using peptide nucleic acid probes

Bacterial vaginosis (BV), a condition defined by increased vaginal discharge without significant inflammation, is characterized by a change in the bacterial composition of the vagina. Lactobacillus spp., associated with a healthy vaginal microbiome, are outnumbered by BV-associated organisms. These bacteria could form a polymicrobial biofilm which allows them to persist in spite of antibiotic treatment. In this study, we examined the presence of Gardnerella vaginalis and Atopobium vaginae in vaginal biofilms using Peptide Nucleic Acid (PNA) probes targeting these bacteria. For this purpose, we developed three new PNA probes for A. vaginae. The most specific A. vaginae probe, AtoITM1, was selected and then used in an assay with two existing probes, Gard162 and BacUni-1, to evaluate multiplex FISH on clinical samples. Using quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) as the gold standard, we demonstrated a sensitivity of 66.7% (95% confidence interval: 54.5% - 77.1%) and a specificity of 89.4% (95% confidence interval: 76.1% - 96%) of the new AtoITM1 probe. FISH enabled us to show the presence of a polymicrobial biofilm in bacterial vaginosis, in which Atopobium vaginae is part of a Gardnerella vaginalis-dominated biofilm. We showed that the presence of this biofilm is associated with high bacterial loads of A. vaginae and G. vaginalis

Liveness and Reachability Analysis of BPMN Process Models

Business processes are usually defined by business experts who require intuitive and informal graphical notations such as BPMN (Business Process Management Notation) for documenting and communicating their organization activities and behavior. However, BPMN has not been provided with a formal semantics, which limits the analysis of BPMN models to using solely informal techniques such as simulation. In order to address this limitation and use formal verification, it is necessary to define a certain “mapping” between BPMN and a formal language such as Concurrent Sequential Processes (CSP) and Petri Nets (PN). This paper proposes a method for the verification of BPMN models by defining formal semantics of BPMN in terms of a mapping to Time Petri Nets (TPN), which are equipped with very efficient analytical techniques. After the translation of BPMN models to TPN, verification is done to ensure that some functional properties are satisfied by the model under investigation, namely liveness and reachability properties. The main advantage of our approach over existing ones is that it takes into account the time components in modeling Business process models. An example is used throughout the paper to illustrate the proposed method

Separating Moral Hazard from Adverse Selection and Learning in Automobile Insurance: Longitudinal Evidence from France

The identification of information problems in different markets is a challenging issue in the economic literature. In this paper, we study the identification of moral hazard from adverse selection and learning within the context of a multi-period dynamic model. We extend the model of Abbring et al. (2003) to include learning and insurance coverage choice over time. We derive testable empirical implications for panel data. We then perform tests using longitudinal data from France during the period 1995-1997. We find evidence of moral hazard among a sub-group of policyholders with less driving experience (less than 15 years). Policyholders with less than 5 years of experience have a combination of learning and moral hazard, whereas no residual information problem is found for policyholders with more than 15 years of experience

Adsorption of carbofuran (2,3-dihydro-2,2-dimethyl benzofuran-7-yl carbamate) and fenamiphos (ethyl 4-methylthio-m-tolylisopropyl phosphoramidate) by homoionic montmorillonite - humic acid complex

L'étude de l'adsorption a montré l’influence du cation de saturation des complexes argilo-humiques sur le phénomène d’adsorption des deux pesticides carbofuran et phénamiphos. L’analyse des résultats des différents complexes argilo-humiques (Me-M-HA) a montré que l'adsorption du phénamiphos est plus importante que celle du carbofuran. L'analyse des spectres d’absorption infra-rouge a montré des modifications importantes dans les fréquences de vibration des groupements fonctionnels des deux molécules pesticides au cours de leur adsorption par les complexes argilo-humique. L’analyse par diffraction aux rayons-X des complexes argilo-humiques traité par le carbofuran ou le phénamiphos a montré une augmentation significative de la distance réticulaire d001, indiquant la possibilité de pénétration de ces molécules dans l'espace interlamellaire des complexes saturés par des cations polyvalents

Salinité et pollution par les nitrates des eaux souterraines de la plaine des Triffa

Les eaux souterraines de la plaine des Triffa (Basse Moulouya) deviennent de plus en plus polluées. Les résultats analytiques montrent que la plupart des puits sont chargés en sels et en nitrates, donc impropres à la consommation humaine et peuvent avoir un effet négatif sur les cultures maraîchères de la région. Dans la zone étudiée, des teneurs de 2,32 à 174,70 mg/l de NO3-, de 134 à 3614 mg/l de Cl- et de 103 à 1518 mg/l de Na+ ne sont pas exceptionnelles. Elles dépassent largement les normes fixées par l’OMS et la CEE (50 mg/l pour les NO3 -, de 250 mg/l pour Cl- et de 175 mg/l pour Na+). L’intensification de l’agriculture dans la plaine, notamment dans les périmètres irrigués, l’épandage excessif des engrais, les applications répétées, et à quantités fortes, de fumiers, l’irrigation, les précipitations et la remontée de la nappe dans certaines régions ont engendré une pollution croissante des ressources en eau