Capital Flows and Destabilizing Policy in Latin America

Motivated by the excessive macroeconomic volatility experienced in Latin America, we examine the possible contribution of monetary and fiscal policies to this outcome. In contrast with previous literature, we consider the possible simultaneity between policy and GDP growth by using GMM VAR econometric techniques. Additionally, we explore the direct impact international capital inflows have on these policies. Our evidence suggests that for the group of countries we consider, most practice destabilizing fiscal and monetary policy, and capital inflow consistently influences policy in a pro-cyclical direction.Fiscal and Monetary Policies, Capital Flows, Latin America

Finance and the Business Cycle: a Kalman Filter Approach with Markov Switching

This paper combines two popular econometric tools, the dynamic factor model and the Markov-Switching model, to consider three segments of the financial system- the stock market, debt, and money- and their contribution to US business cycles over the past four decades. The dynamic factor model identifies a composite factor index for each financial segment, and using Markov-switching models by Hamilton (1989) and Filardo (1994), this paper then estimates the effect of each segment index on business cycle behaviour. This reexamination of the finance-business cycle link provides results that prove strongest for the effect of stock market movements on business cycles.

Can analyses of electronic patient records be independently and externally validated? The effect of statins on the mortality of patients with ischaemic heart disease: a cohort study with nested case-control analysis

Objective To conduct a fully independent and external validation of a research study based on one electronic health record database, using a different electronic database sampling the same population. Design Using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), we replicated a published investigation into the effects of statins in patients with ischaemic heart disease (IHD) by a different research team using QResearch. We replicated the original methods and analysed all-cause mortality using: (1) a cohort analysis and (2) a case-control analysis nested within the full cohort. Setting Electronic health record databases containing longitudinal patient consultation data from large numbers of general practices distributed throughout the UK. Participants CPRD data for 34 925 patients with IHD from 224 general practices, compared to previously published results from QResearch for 13 029 patients from 89 general practices. The study period was from January 1996 to December 2003. Results We successfully replicated the methods of the original study very closely. In a cohort analysis, risk of death was lower by 55% for patients on statins, compared with 53% for QResearch (adjusted HR 0.45, 95% CI 0.40 to 0.50; vs 0.47, 95% CI 0.41 to 0.53). In case-control analyses, patients on statins had a 31% lower odds of death, compared with 39% for QResearch (adjusted OR 0.69, 95% CI 0.63 to 0.75; vs OR 0.61, 95% CI 0.52 to 0.72). Results were also close for individual statins. Conclusions Database differences in population characteristics and in data definitions, recording, quality and completeness had a minimal impact on key statistical outputs. The results uphold the validity of research using CPRD and QResearch by providing independent evidence that both datasets produce very similar estimates of treatment effect, leading to the same clinical and policy decisions. Together with other non-independent replication studies, there is a nascent body of evidence for wider validity

Response and Recovery of the Comanche Carbonate Platform Surrounding Multiple Cretaceous Oceanic Anoxic Events, Northern Gulf of Mexico

The ubiquity of carbonate platforms throughout the Cretaceous Period is recognized as a product of high eustatic sea-level and a distinct climatic optimum induced by rapid sea-floor spreading and elevated levels of atmospheric carbon-dioxide. Notably, a series of global oceanic anoxic events (OAEs) punctuate this time-interval and mark periods of significantly reduced free oxygen in the world's oceans. The best records of these events are often from one-dimensional shelf or basin sections where only abrupt shifts between oxygenated carbonates and anoxic shales are recorded. The Comanche Platform of central Texas provides a unique opportunity to study these events within a well-constrained stratigraphic framework in which their up-dip and down-dip sedimentologic effects can be observed and the recovery of the platform to equilibrium states can be timed and understood. Stable isotope data from whole cores in middle Hauterivian through lower Campanian mixed carbonate-siliciclastic strata are used to construct a 52-myr carbon isotope reference profile for the northern Gulf of Mexico. Correlation of this composite curve to numerous global reference profiles permits identification of several anoxic events and allows their impact on platform architecture and fades distribution to be documented. Oceanic anoxic events la, 1b, 1d, and 2 occurred immediately before, after, or during shale deposition in the Pine Island Member, Bexar Member, Del Rio Formation, and Eagle Ford Group, respectively. Oceanic anoxic event 3 corresponds to deposition of the Austin Chalk Group. Platform drowning on three occasions more closely coincided with globally recognized anoxic sub-events such as the Fallot, Albian-Cenomanian, and Mid-Cenomanian events. This illustrates that the specific anoxic event most affecting a given carbonate platform varied globally as a function of regional oceanographic circumstances. Using chemo- and sequence-stratigraphic observations, a four-stage model is proposed to describe the changing fades patterns, fauna, sedimentation accumulation rates, platform architectures, and relative sea-level trends of transgressive-regressive composite sequences that developed in response to global carbon-cycle perturbations. The four phases of platform evolution include the equilibrium, crisis, anoxic, and recovery stages. The equilibrium stage is characterized by progradational shelf geometries and coralrudist phototrophic faunal assemblages. Similar phototrophic fauna typify the crisis stage; however, incipient biocalcification crises of this phase led to retrogradational shelf morphologies, transgressive facies patterns, and increased clay mineral proportions. Anoxic stages of the Comanche Platform were coincident with back-ground deposition of organic-rich shale on drowned shelves and heterotrophic fauna dominated by oysters or coccolithophorids. Eustatic peaks of this stage were of moderate amplitude (similar to 30 m), yet relative sea-level rises were greatly enhanced by reduced sedimentation rates. In the recovery stage, heterotrophic carbonate factories re-established at the shoreline as progradational ramp systems and sediment accumulation rates slowly increased as dysoxia diminished. Full recovery to equilibrium conditions may or may not have followed. Geochemical and stratigraphic trends present in the four stages are consistent with increased volcanism along mid-ocean ridges and in large-igneous provinces as primary drivers of Cretaceous OAEs and the resulting transgressive-regressive composite sequences. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.BHP-BillitonReservoir Characterization Research Laboratory, the Bureau of Economic GeologyJackson School of Geosciences at the University of Texas at AustinBureau of Economic Geolog

Demonstration of Robust Quantum Gate Tomography via Randomized Benchmarking

Typical quantum gate tomography protocols struggle with a self-consistency problem: the gate operation cannot be reconstructed without knowledge of the initial state and final measurement, but such knowledge cannot be obtained without well-characterized gates. A recently proposed technique, known as randomized benchmarking tomography (RBT), sidesteps this self-consistency problem by designing experiments to be insensitive to preparation and measurement imperfections. We implement this proposal in a superconducting qubit system, using a number of experimental improvements including implementing each of the elements of the Clifford group in single `atomic' pulses and custom control hardware to enable large overhead protocols. We show a robust reconstruction of several single-qubit quantum gates, including a unitary outside the Clifford group. We demonstrate that RBT yields physical gate reconstructions that are consistent with fidelities obtained by randomized benchmarking

Detection of electronic nematicity using scanning tunneling microscopy

Electronic nematic phases have been proposed to occur in various correlated electron systems and were recently claimed to have been detected in scanning tunneling microscopy (STM) conductance maps of the pseudogap states of the cuprate high-temperature superconductor Bi2Sr2CaCu2O8+x (Bi-2212). We investigate the influence of anisotropic STM tip structures on such measurements and establish, with a model calculation, the presence of a tunneling interference effect within an STM junction that induces energy-dependent symmetry-breaking features in the conductance maps. We experimentally confirm this phenomenon on different correlated electron systems, including measurements in the pseudogap state of Bi-2212, showing that the apparent nematic behavior of the imaged crystal lattice is likely not due to nematic order but is related to how a realistic STM tip probes the band structure of a material. We further establish that this interference effect can be used as a sensitive probe of changes in the momentum structure of the sample's quasiparticles as a function of energy.Comment: Accepted for publication (PRB - Rapid Communications). Main text (5 pages, 4 figures) + Supplemental Material (4 pages, 4 figures