Estimating the burden of disease attributable to four selected environmental risk factors in South Africa

The first South African National Burden of Disease study quantified the underlying causes of premature mortality and morbidity experienced in South Africa in the year 2000. This was followed by a Comparative Risk Assessment to estimate the contributions of 17 selected risk factors to burden of disease in South Africa. This paper describes the health impact of exposure to four selected environmental risk factors: unsafe water, sanitation and hygiene; indoor air pollution from household use of solid fuels; urban outdoor air pollution and lead exposure.The study followed World Health Organization comparative risk assessment methodology. Population-attributable fractions were calculated and applied to revised burden of disease estimates (deaths and disability adjusted life years, [DALYs]) from the South African Burden of Disease study to obtain the attributable burden for each selected risk factor. The burden attributable to the joint effect of the four environmental risk factors was also estimated taking into account competing risks and common pathways. Monte Carlo simulation-modeling techniques were used to quantify sampling, uncertainty.Almost 24 000 deaths were attributable to the joint effect of these four environmental risk factors, accounting for 4.6% (95% uncertainty interval 3.8-5.3%) of all deaths in South Africa in 2000. Overall the burden due to these environmental risks was equivalent to 3.7% (95% uncertainty interval 3.4-4.0%) of the total disease burden for South Africa, with unsafe water sanitation and hygiene the main contributor to joint burden. The joint attributable burden was especially high in children under 5 years of age, accounting for 10.8% of total deaths in this age group and 9.7% of burden of disease.This study highlights the public health impact of exposure to environmental risks and the significant burden of preventable disease attributable to exposure to these four major environmental risk factors in South Africa. Evidence-based policies and programs must be developed and implemented to address these risk factors at individual, household, and community levels

Consequences of prairie fragmentation on the progeny sex ratio of a gynodioecious species, <em>Lobelia spicata</em> (Campanulaceae)

Habitat fragmentation of prairie ecosystems has resulted in increased isolation and decreased size of plant populations. In large populations, frequency-dependent selection is expected to maintain genetic diversity of sex determining factors associated with gynodioecy, that is, nuclear restorer genes that reverse cytoplasmic male sterility (nucleocytoplasmic gynodioecy). However, genetic drift will have a greater influence on small isolated populations that result from habitat fragmentation. The genetic model for nucleocytoplasmic gynodioecy implies that the proportion of female progeny produced by hermaphroditic and female plants will show more extreme differences in populations with reduced allelic diversity, and that restoration of male function will increase with inbreeding. We investigated potential impacts of effects resulting from reduced population sizes by comparison of progeny sex ratios produced by female and hermaphroditic plants in small and large populations of the gynodioecious prairie species, Lobelia spicata. A four-way contingency analysis of the impact of population size, population sex ratio, and maternal gender on progeny sex ratios showed that progeny sex ratios of hermaphroditic plants were strongly influenced by population size, whereas progeny sex ratios of female plants were strongly influenced by population sex ratio. Further, analysis of variation in progeny-type distribution indicated decreased restoration and increased loss of male function in smaller and isolated populations. These results are consistent with reduced allelic diversity or low allelic frequency at restorer loci in small and isolated populations. The consequent decrease in male function has the potential to impede seed production in these fragmented prairies.</p