Comment on "Geoeffectiveness of halo coronal mass ejections" by N. Gopalswamy, S. Yashiro, and S. Akiyama

Comment on paper: Gopalswamy, N., S. Yashiro, and S. Akiyama (2007), Geoeffectiveness of halo coronal mass ejections, J. Geophys. Res., 112, A06112, doi:10.1029/2006JA012149 Gopalswamy et al. [2007] studied the geoeffectiveness of halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) on the basis of solar observations during 1996-2005 and found that the geoeffectiveness of 229 frontside halo CMEs was 71%. Recently for observations of 305 frontside halo CMEs during 1997-2003 the geoeffectiveness was found to be 40% [Kim et al., 2005]. Complex analysis of both solar and interplanetary measurements showed that the geoeffectiveness of frontside halo CMEs is likely to be about 50% [Yermolaev et al., 2005; Yermolaev and Yermolaev, 2006]. Gopalswamy et al. [2007] did not discuss possible causes of this difference and were limited only to the general words: "The reason for the conflicting results (geoeffectiveness of CMEs ranging from 35% to more than 80%) may be attributed to the different definition of halo CMEs and geoeffectiveness." So, here we shall present our point of view on high geoeffectivenees of CME obtained in paper by Gopalswamy et al. [2007]

An Asymmetric Cone Model for Halo Coronal Mass Ejections

Due to projection effects, coronagraphic observations cannot uniquely determine parameters relevant to the geoeffectiveness of CMEs, such as the true propagation speed, width, or source location. The Cone Model for Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) has been studied in this respect and it could be used to obtain these parameters. There are evidences that some CMEs initiate from a flux-rope topology. It seems that these CMEs should be elongated along the flux-rope axis and the cross section of the cone base should be rather elliptical than circular. In the present paper we applied an asymmetric cone model to get the real space parameters of frontsided halo CMEs (HCMEs) recorded by SOHO/LASCO coronagraphs in 2002. The cone model parameters are generated through a fitting procedure to the projected speeds measured at different position angles on the plane of the sky. We consider models with the apex of the cone located at the center and surface of the Sun. The results are compared to the standard symmetric cone model

Small scale energy release driven by supergranular flows on the quiet Sun

In this article we present data and modelling for the quiet Sun that strongly suggest a ubiquitous small-scale atmospheric heating mechanism that is driven solely by converging supergranular flows. A possible energy source for such events is the power transfer to the plasma via the work done on the magnetic field by photospheric convective flows, which exert drag of the footpoints of magnetic structures. In this paper we present evidence of small scale energy release events driven directly by the hydrodynamic forces that act on the magnetic elements in the photosphere, as a result of supergranular scale flows. We show strong spatial and temporal correlation between quiet Sun soft X-ray emission (from <i>Yohkoh</i> and <i>SOHO</i> MDI-derived flux removal events driven by deduced photospheric flows. We also present a simple model of heating generated by flux submergence, based on particle acceleration by converging magnetic mirrors. In the near future, high resolution soft X-ray images from XRT on the <i>Hinode</i> satellite will allow definitive, quantitative verification of our results

Accuracy and Limitations of Fitting and Stereoscopic Methods to Determine the Direction of Coronal Mass Ejections from Heliospheric Imagers Observations

Using data from the Heliospheric Imagers (HIs) onboard STEREO, it is possible to derive the direction of propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in addition to their speed with a variety of methods. For CMEs observed by both STEREO spacecraft, it is possible to derive their direction using simultaneous observations from the twin spacecraft and also, using observations from only one spacecraft with fitting methods. This makes it possible to test and compare different analyses techniques. In this article, we propose a new fitting method based on observations from one spacecraft, which we compare to the commonly used fitting method of Sheeley et al. (1999). We also compare the results from these two fitting methods with those from two stereoscopic methods, focusing on 12 CMEs observed simultaneously by the two STEREO spacecraft in 2008 and 2009. We find evidence that the fitting method of Sheeley et al. (1999) can result in significant errors in the determination of the CME direction when the CME propagates outside of 60deg \pm 20 deg from the Sun-spacecraft line. We expect our new fitting method to be better adapted to the analysis of halo or limb CMEs with respect to the observing spacecraft. We also find some evidence that direct triangulation in the HI fields-of-view should only be applied to CMEs propagating approximatively towards Earth (\pm 20deg from the Sun-Earth line). Last, we address one of the possible sources of errors of fitting methods: the assumption of radial propagation. Using stereoscopic methods, we find that at least seven of the 12 studied CMEs had an heliospheric deflection of less than 20deg as they propagated in the HI fields-of-view, which, we believe, validates this approximation.Comment: 17 pages, 6 figures, 2 tables, accepted to Solar Physic

The floor in the interplanetary magnetic field: Estimation on the basis of relative duration of ICME observations in solar wind during 1976-2000

To measure the floor in interplanetary magnetic field and estimate the time- invariant open magnetic flux of Sun, it is necessary to know a part of magnetic field of Sun carried away by CMEs. In contrast with previous papers, we did not use global solar parameters: we identified different large-scale types of solar wind for 1976-2000 interval, obtained a fraction of interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) and calculated magnitude of interplanetary magnetic field B averaged over 2 Carrington rotations. The floor of magnetic field is estimated as B value at solar cycle minimum when the ICMEs were not observed and it was calculated to be 4,65 \pm 6,0 nT. Obtained value is in a good agreement with previous results.Comment: 10 pages, 2 figures, submitted in GR

Epistemic and social scripts in computer-supported collaborative learning

Collaborative learning in computer-supported learning environments typically means that learners work on tasks together, discussing their individual perspectives via text-based media or videoconferencing, and consequently acquire knowledge. Collaborative learning, however, is often sub-optimal with respect to how learners work on the concepts that are supposed to be learned and how learners interact with each other. One possibility to improve collaborative learning environments is to conceptualize epistemic scripts, which specify how learners work on a given task, and social scripts, which structure how learners interact with each other. In this contribution, two studies will be reported that investigated the effects of epistemic and social scripts in a text-based computer-supported learning environment and in a videoconferencing learning environment in order to foster the individual acquisition of knowledge. In each study the factors ‘epistemic script’ and ‘social script’ have been independently varied in a 2×2-factorial design. 182 university students of Educational Science participated in these two studies. Results of both studies show that social scripts can be substantially beneficial with respect to the individual acquisition of knowledge, whereas epistemic scripts apparently do not to lead to the expected effects

Machine learning-based investigation of the association between CMEs and filaments

YesIn this work we study the association between eruptive filaments/prominences and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) using machine learning-based algorithms that analyse the solar data available between January 1996 and December 2001. The Support Vector Machine (SVM) learning algorithm is used for the purpose of knowledge extraction from the association results. The aim is to identify patterns of associations that can be represented using SVM learning rules for the subsequent use in near real-time and reliable CME prediction systems. Timing and location data in the NGDC filament catalogue and the SOHO/LASCO CME catalogue are processed to associate filaments with CMEs. In the previous studies which classified CMEs into gradual and impulsive CMEs, the associations were refined based on CME speed and acceleration. Then the associated pairs were refined manually to increase the accuracy of the training dataset. In the current study, a data- mining system has been created to process and associate filament and CME data, which are arranged in numerical training vectors. Then the data are fed to SVMs to extract the embedded knowledge and provide the learning rules that could have the potential, in the future, to provide automated predictions of CMEs. The features representing the event time (average of the start and end times), duration, type and extent of the filaments are extracted from all the associated and not-associated filaments and converted to a numerical format that is suitable for SVM use. Several validation and verification methods are used on the extracted dataset to determine if CMEs can be predicted solely and efficiently based on the associated filaments. More than 14000 experiments are carried out to optimise the SVM and determine the input features that provide the best performance

Solar Flares and Coronal Mass Ejections: A Statistically Determined Flare Flux-CME Mass Correlation

In an effort to examine the relationship between flare flux and corresponding CME mass, we temporally and spatially correlate all X-ray flares and CMEs in the LASCO and GOES archives from 1996 to 2006. We cross-reference 6,733 CMEs having well-measured masses against 12,050 X-ray flares having position information as determined from their optical counterparts. For a given flare, we search in time for CMEs which occur 10-80 minutes afterward, and we further require the flare and CME to occur within +/-45 degrees in position angle on the solar disk. There are 826 CME/flare pairs which fit these criteria. Comparing the flare fluxes with CME masses of these paired events, we find CME mass increases with flare flux, following an approximately log-linear, broken relationship: in the limit of lower flare fluxes, log(CME mass)~0.68*log(flare flux), and in the limit of higher flare fluxes, log(CME mass)~0.33*log(flare flux). We show that this broken power-law, and in particular the flatter slope at higher flare fluxes, may be due to an observational bias against CMEs associated with the most energetic flares: halo CMEs. Correcting for this bias yields a single power-law relationship of the form log(CME mass)~0.70*log(flare flux). This function describes the relationship between CME mass and flare flux over at least 3 dex in flare flux, from ~10^-7 to 10^-4 W m^-2.Comment: 28 pages, 16 figures, accepted to Solar Physic

Space Weather Application Using Projected Velocity Asymmetry of Halo CMEs

Halo coronal mass ejections (HCMEs) originating from regions close to the center of the Sun are likely to be responsible for severe geomagnetic storms. It is important to predict geo-effectiveness of HCMEs using observations when they are still near the Sun. Unfortunately, coronagraphic observations do not provide true speeds of CMEs due to the projection effects. In the present paper, we present a new technique allowing estimate the space speed and approximate source location using projected speeds measured at different position angles for a given HCME (velocity asymmetry). We apply this technique to HCMEs observed during 2001-2002 and find that the improved speeds are better correlated with the travel times of HCMEs to Earth and with the magnitudes ensuing geomagnetic storms.Comment: accepted for [publication in Solar Physic

Magnetic Flux of EUV Arcade and Dimming Regions as a Relevant Parameter for Early Diagnostics of Solar Eruptions - Sources of Non-Recurrent Geomagnetic Storms and Forbush Decreases

This study aims at the early diagnostics of geoeffectiveness of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from quantitative parameters of the accompanying EUV dimming and arcade events. We study events of the 23th solar cycle, in which major non-recurrent geomagnetic storms (GMS) with Dst <-100 nT are sufficiently reliably identified with their solar sources in the central part of the disk. Using the SOHO/EIT 195 A images and MDI magnetograms, we select significant dimming and arcade areas and calculate summarized unsigned magnetic fluxes in these regions at the photospheric level. The high relevance of this eruption parameter is displayed by its pronounced correlation with the Forbush decrease (FD) magnitude, which, unlike GMSs, does not depend on the sign of the Bz component but is determined by global characteristics of ICMEs. Correlations with the same magnetic flux in the solar source region are found for the GMS intensity (at the first step, without taking into account factors determining the Bz component near the Earth), as well as for the temporal intervals between the solar eruptions and the GMS onset and peak times. The larger the magnetic flux, the stronger the FD and GMS intensities are and the shorter the ICME transit time is. The revealed correlations indicate that the main quantitative characteristics of major non-recurrent space weather disturbances are largely determined by measurable parameters of solar eruptions, in particular, by the magnetic flux in dimming areas and arcades, and can be tentatively estimated in advance with a lead time from 1 to 4 days. For GMS intensity, the revealed dependencies allow one to estimate a possible value, which can be expected if the Bz component is negative.Comment: 27 pages, 5 figures. Accepted for publication in Solar Physic