Eccentricities of Double Neutron Star Binaries

Recent pulsar surveys have increased the number of observed double neutron stars (DNS) in our galaxy enough so that observable trends in their properties are starting to emerge. In particular, it has been noted that the majority of DNS have eccentricities less than 0.3, which are surprisingly low for binaries that survive a supernova explosion that we believe imparts a significant kick to the neutron star. To investigate this trend, we generate many different theoretical distributions of DNS eccentricities using Monte Carlo population synthesis methods. We determine which eccentricity distributions are most consistent with the observed sample of DNS binaries. In agreement with Chaurasia & Bailes (2005), assuming all double neutron stars are equally as probable to be discovered as binary pulsars, we find that highly eccentric, coalescing DNS are less likely to be observed because of their accelerated orbital evolution due to gravitational wave emission and possible early mergers. Based on our results for coalescing DNS, we also find that models with vanishingly or moderately small kicks (sigma < about 50 km/s) are inconsistent with the current observed sample of such DNS. We discuss the implications of our conclusions for DNS merger rate estimates of interest to ground-based gravitational-wave interferometers. We find that, although orbital evolution due to gravitational radiation affects the eccentricity distribution of the observed sample, the associated upwards correction factor to merger rate estimates is rather small (typically 10-40%).Comment: 9 pages, 8 figures, accepted by ApJ. Figures reduced and some content changed, references adde

Bayesian evidence synthesis to estimate HIV prevalence in men who have sex with men in Poland at the end of 2009.

HIV spread in men who have sex with men (MSM) is an increasing problem in Poland. Despite the existence of a surveillance system, there is no direct evidence to allow estimation of HIV prevalence and the proportion undiagnosed in MSM. We extracted data on HIV and the MSM population in Poland, including case-based surveillance data, diagnostic testing prevalence data and behavioural data relating to self-reported prior diagnosis, stratified by age (⩽35, >35 years) and region (Mazowieckie including the capital city of Warsaw; other regions). They were integrated into one model based on a Bayesian evidence synthesis approach. The posterior distributions for HIV prevalence and the undiagnosed fraction were estimated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. To improve the model fit we repeated the analysis, introducing bias parameters to account for potential lack of representativeness in data. By placing additional constraints on bias parameters we obtained precisely identified estimates. This family of models indicates a high undiagnosed fraction [68·3%, 95% credibility interval (CrI) 53·9-76·1] and overall low prevalence (2·3%, 95% CrI 1·4-4·1) of HIV in MSM. Additional data are necessary in order to produce more robust epidemiological estimates. More effort is urgently needed to ensure timely diagnosis of HIV in Poland