Generalized Log-Normal Chain-Ladder

We propose an asymptotic theory for distribution forecasting from the log normal chain-ladder model. The theory overcomes the difficulty of convoluting log normal variables and takes estimation error into account. The results differ from that of the over-dispersed Poisson model and from the chain-ladder based bootstrap. We embed the log normal chain-ladder model in a class of infinitely divisible distributions called the generalized log normal chain-ladder model. The asymptotic theory uses small $\sigma$ asymptotics where the dimension of the reserving triangle is kept fixed while the standard deviation is assumed to decrease. The resulting asymptotic forecast distributions follow t distributions. The theory is supported by simulations and an empirical application

Explaining Phenomenologically Observed Space-time Flatness Requires New Fundamental Scale Physics

The phenomenologically observed flatness - or near flatness - of spacetime cannot be understood as emerging from continuum Planck (or sub-Planck) scales using known physics. Using dimensional arguments it is demonstrated that any immaginable action will lead to Christoffel symbols that are chaotic. We put forward new physics in the form of fundamental fields that spontaneously break translational invariance. Using these new fields as coordinates we define the metric in such a way that the Riemann tensor vanishes identically as a Bianchi identity. Hence the new fundamental fields define a flat space. General relativity with curvature is recovered as an effective theory at larger scales at which crystal defects in the form of disclinations come into play as the sources of curvature.Comment: This article were already in 2011 published as Proceedings of the 14th Bled Conference on "What Comes Beyond the Standard Models" organized by Norma Manko Borstnik, Dragan Lukman, Maxim Khlopov, and H.B. Nielse

Products of Random Matrices

We derive analytic expressions for infinite products of random 2x2 matrices. The determinant of the target matrix is log-normally distributed, whereas the remainder is a surprisingly complicated function of a parameter characterizing the norm of the matrix and a parameter characterizing its skewness. The distribution may have importance as an uncommitted prior in statistical image analysis.Comment: 9 pages, 1 figur

Fermion and Higgs Masses and the AGUT Model

We present two rather differently based predictions for the quark and lepton spectrum: One provides a rather successful fit to the mass suppressions---the well known fermion mass hierarchy---interpreted as due to most mass terms needing to violate approximately conserved quantum numbers corresponding to the AGUT group $SMG^3\times U(1)_f$. This is actually, under certain conditions, the maximal group transforming the known 45 Weyl components of the quark and leptons into each other. From the fit to the fermion spectrum, we get a picture of the series of Higgs fields causing the breakdown (presumably at the Planck scale) of this AGUT to the Standard Model and, thus, providing the small masses of all quarks and leptons except for the top quark. We separately predict the top quark mass to be $173 \pm 5$ GeV and the Higgs mass to be $135 \pm 9$ GeV, from the assumption that there be two degenerate minima in the effective potential for the Weinberg Salam Higgs field with the second one at the Planck field strength.Comment: 6 page LaTeX file plus 1 postscript figure and aipproc style file, uses epsfig.sty; to appear in the Proceedings of Beyond the Standard Model V, Balholm, Norway, 29 April - 4 May 199

Tunguska Dark Matter Ball

It is suggested that the Tunguska event in June 1908 cm-large was due to a cm-large ball of a condensate of bound states of 6 top and 6 anti-top quarks containing highly compressed ordinary matter. Such balls are supposed to make up the dark matter as we earlier proposed. The expected rate of impact of this kind of dark matter ball with the earth seems to crudely match a time scale of 200 years between the impacts. The main explosion of the Tunguska event is explained in our picture as material coming out from deep within the earth, where it has been heated and compressed by the ball penetrating to a depth of several thousand km. Thus the effect has some similarity with volcanic activity as suggested by Kundt. We discuss the possible identification of kimberlite pipes with earlier Tunguska-like events. A discussion of how the dark matter balls may have formed in the early universe is also given.Comment: In second version some typos and smaller miscalculations were change