The potential of decision support systems to improve risk assessment for pollen beetle management in winter oilseed rape

BACKGROUNDThe reliance on and extensive use of pyrethroid insecticides have led to pyrethroid resistance in pollen beetle (Meligethes aeneus). Widespread adoption of best practice in pollen beetle management is therefore needed. Decision support systems (DSSs) that identify the risk period(s) for pest migration can help to target monitoring and control efforts, but they must be accurate and labour efficient to gain the support of growers. Weather data and the phenology of pollen beetles in 44 winter oilseed rape crops across England over 4 years were used to compare the performance of two risk management tools: the DSS proPlant expert, which predicts migration risk according to a phenological model and local weather data, and rule-based advice', which depends on crop growth stage and a temperature threshold. RESULTSBoth risk management tools were effective in prompting monitoring that would detect breaches of various control thresholds. However, the DSS more accurately predicted migration start and advised significantly fewer days of migration risk, consultation days and monitoring than did rule-based advice. CONCLUSIONThe proPlant expert DSS reliably models pollen beetle phenology. Use of such a DSS can focus monitoring effort to when it is most needed, facilitate the practical use of thresholds and help to prevent unnecessary insecticide applications and the development of insecticide resistance. (c) 2015 Rothamsted Research Ltd. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry

Examination of the cut-off scores determined by the Ages and Stages Questionnaire in a population-based sample of 6 month-old Norwegian infants

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Few population-based samples have previously published performance on the Ages and Stages Questionnaire (ASQ), a recommended screening tool to detect infant developmental delay. The aim of the study was to investigate performance on the ASQ in a population-based sample of 6-month-old infants.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In this population-based questionnaire study from Oslo, Norway, the 30 item ASQ 6 month Questionnaire (N = 1053) were included, however without the pictograms, and compared to the Norwegian reference sample (N.ref) (N = 169) and to US cut-off values. Exclusion criteria were maternal non-Scandinavian ethnicity, infant age < 5.0 or > 7.0 months (corrected age), twins, and birth weight < 2.5 kg. Cut-off = 2.5 percentile (equivalent to mean minus 2 standard deviations). Pearson's Chi square and Mann-Whitney U were used to compare items and areas, respectively, with N.ref.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The reported ASQ scores were lower on all but one of the 10 significantly different items, and in all areas except Personal social, compared to the N.ref sample. The estimated cut-off values for suspected developmental delay (Communication 25, Gross motor 15, Fine motor 18, Problem solving 25 and Personal social 20) were lower than the recommended American (US) values in all areas, and lower than the Norwegian values in two areas. Scores indicating need for further assessment were reached by 13.8% or 20.5% of the infants (missing items scored according to the US or the Norwegian manual), and by 33.8% or 30.3% of the infants using the recommended US or the Norwegian cut-off values, in this population-based sample. The Fine motor area demonstrated a large variability depending on the different cut-off and scoring possibilities. Both among the items excluding pictograms and the items that do not have pictograms, approximately every third item differed significantly compared to the N.ref sample.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The psychomotor developmental scores were lower than in the reference samples in this study of ASQ 6 month Questionnaire; to our knowledge the first study to be both representative and comparatively large. Approximately every third child with birth weight above 2.5 kg, received scores suggesting further assessment using recommended ASQ cut-off scores.</p

Lessons from SARS: A retrospective study of outpatient care during an infectious disease outbreak

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>During severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak in Toronto, outpatient clinics at SickKids Hospital were closed to prevent further disease transmission. In response, a decision was made by the neonatal neuro-developmental follow up (NNFU) clinic staff to select patients with scheduled appointments to have a mail/telephone assessment using Ages and Stages Questionnaire (ASQ) or to postpone/skip their visit. The objective of this study was to compare the developmental assessment and its outcome in two groups of NNFU clinic patients, SARS versus non-SARS, over three standard clinic appointments.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We compared the diagnostic accuracy (identification of developmental delay), and patient management (referral for therapy or communication of a new diagnosis) of the strategies used during SARS, April/May 2003, to the standard assessment methods used for patients seen in April/May 2005 (non-SARS). In all cases data were obtained for 3 patient visits: before, during and after these 2 months and were compared using descriptive statistics.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>There were 95 patients in the SARS group and 99 non-SARS patients. The gestational age, sex, entry diagnosis and age at the clinic visit was not different between the groups. The NNFU clinic staff mailed ASQ to 27 families during SARS, 17 (63%) were returned, and 8 of the 17 were then contacted by telephone. Criteria used to identify infants at risk selected for either mailed ASQ or phone interviews were not clearly defined in the patients' charts. There was a significant under identification of developmental delay during SARS (18% versus 45%). Of those who responded to the mailed questionnaire, referrals for therapy rates were similar to non-SARS group. The lost to follow up rate was 24% for the SARS group compared with 7% for non-SARS. There was no difference in the overall rate of developmental delay in the two groups as identified at the 'after' visit.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Poor advanced planning led to a haphazard assessment of patients during this infectious disease outbreak. Future pandemic plans should consider planning for outpatient care as well as in hospital management of patients.</p

Synthesis of monoclinic Celsian from coal fly ash by using a one-step solid-state reaction

Monoclinic (Celsian) and hexagonal (Hexacelsian) Ba1−xSrxAl2Si2O8 solid solutions, where x = 0, 0.25, 0.375, 0.5, 0.75 or 1, were synthesized by using Coal Fly Ash (CFA) as main raw material, employing a simple one-step solid-state reaction process involving thermal treatment for 5 h at 850–1300 °C. Fully monoclinic Celsian was obtained at 1200 °C/5 h, for SrO contents of 0.25 ≤ x ≤ 0.75. However, an optimum SrO level of 0.25 ≤ x ≤ 0.375 was recommended for the stabilization of Celsian. These synthesis conditions represent a significant improvement over the higher temperatures, longer times and/or multi-step processes needed to obtain fully monoclinic Celsian, when other raw materials are used for this purpose, according to previous literature. These results were attributed to the role of the chemical and phase constitution of CFA as well as to a likely mineralizing effect of CaO and TiO2 present in it, which enhanced the Hexacelsian to Celsian conversion

Development of an integrated pest management strategy for control of pollen beetles in winter oilseed rape (HGCA Project Report No 504)

We have developed an integrated pest management strategy (IPM) for pollen beetles in winter oilseed rape (OSR) based on risk assessment, monitoring and alternative crop management that can be used as a framework by growers and crop consultants to manage pollen beetles with reduced insecticide inputs - and the confidence to do so. This will prolong insecticide life by reducing selection for resistance, reduce environmental impacts and contribute towards the sustainability and profitability of OSR in the UK. One of the major limitations to the use of action thresholds is that proper monitoring of the populations is time consuming and has to be conducted over a prolonged period. To encourage and facilitate their use, we tested and developed tools to improve risk assessment and monitoring. We conducted a pollen beetle monitoring study over 4 years in 178 OSR crops across the UK. Pollen beetles were sampled using sticky traps and plant sampling along transects in the crop. The data were used to help test a decision support system (DSS) for pollen beetles and to develop a monitoring trap. proPlant Expert is a DSS available in mainland Europe that uses a model of pollen beetle immigration and local meteorological data to forecast the start and end of pollen beetle immigration into the crop and main risk periods and advises when to monitor. We tested the model under UK conditions using data from our study and compared monitoring advice with the current advice system on the CropMonitor website (advises monitoring when the crop is at green-yellow bud stage and temperature >15°C). Both performed reassuringly well in prompting monitoring that would detect breaches of spray thresholds. However there were considerable reductions provided by proPlant in the need for consultation of the system (30%) and advised monitoring days (34-53%) in comparison with current advice. Use of the proPlant DSS could therefore focus monitoring effort to when it is most needed. It could also help to reduce unnecessary sprays in cases where beetle numbers are approaching threshold but consultation of the system returns a poor immigration risk forecast or an immigration complete result. The proPlant tool is now freely available to growers and crop consultants in the UK via the Bayer CropScience website. A monitoring trap for pollen beetles would help to more easily and accurately identify when spray thresholds have been breached than monitoring plants in the crop. We developed a baited monitoring trap for pollen beetles which will be commercially available from Oecos. The trap comprises a yellow sticky card mounted at 45°, baited with phenylacetaldehyde, a floral volatile produced naturally by several plant species. Unfortunately using data from our study we were unable to calibrate the trap catch to a given action threshold expressed as the number of beetles per plant using a simple linear relationship. However, the monitoring trap still has value for risk assessment, especially if used together with DSS. We tested the potential of turnip rape (TR) trap crops, planted as borders to the main OSR crop to reduce pollen beetle numbers in a field scale experiment conducted over three years on two sites. We found evidence that the strategy worked well in some years, but not others. This tactic is probably practically and economically worthwhile only for organic growers

Semiochemical-based alternatives to synthetic toxicant insecticides for pollen beetle management

There is an urgent need to develop sustainable pest management systems to protect arable crops in order to replace the current over-reliance on synthetic insecticides. Semiochemicals are insect- or plant-derived chemicals that are used by organisms as information signals. Integrated pest management tools are currently in development that utilise semiochemicals to manipulate the behaviour of pest insects and their natural enemies to provide effective control of pests within the crop. These innovative tools usually require fewer inputs and can involve multiple elements therefore reducing the likelihood of resistance developing compared with use of synthetic toxicants. We review here the life cycle of the pollen beetle Brassicogethes aeneus (previously known as Meligethes aeneus) which is a pest insect of oilseed rape (Brassica napus) and describe the current knowledge of any behaviour mediated by semiochemicals in this species. We discuss the behavioural processes where semiochemical-based control approaches may be appropriate and consider how these approaches could be integrated into an integrated pest management strategy for this important arable crop

From complexity to category: Responding to diagnostic uncertainties of autistic spectrum disorders

Objective: Recent data from Education Queensland has identified rising numbers of children receiving diagnoses of autistic spectrum disorder (ASD). Faced with funding diagnostic pressures, in clinical situations that are complex and inherently uncertain, it is possible that specialists err on the side of a positive diagnosis. This study examines the extent to which possible overinclusion of ASD diagnosis may exist in the presence of uncertainty and factors potentially related to this practice in Queensland. Methods: Using anonymous self-report, all Queensland child psychiatrists and paediatricians who see paediatric patients with development/behavioural problems were surveyed and asked whether they had ever specified an ASD diagnosis in the presence of diagnostic uncertainty. Using logistic regression, elicited responses to the diagnostic uncertainty questions were related to other clinical- and practice-related characteristics. Results: Overall, 58% of surveyed psychiatrists and paediatricians indicated that, in the face of diagnostic uncertainty, they had erred on the side of providing an ASD diagnosis for educational ascertainment and 36% of clinicians had provided an autism diagnosis for Carer's Allowance when Centrelink diagnostic specifications had not been met. Conclusion: In the absence of definitive biological markers, ASD remains a behavioural diagnosis that is often complex and uncertain. In response to systems that demand a categorical diagnostic response, specialists are providing ASD diagnoses, even when uncertain. The motivation for this practice appears to be a clinical risk/benefit analysis of what will achieve the best outcomes for children. It is likely that these practices will continue unless systems change eligibility to funding based on functional impairment rather than medical diagnostic categories