2010 Outlook of the U.S. and World Sugar Markets, 2009-2019

This report evaluates the U.S. and world sugar markets for 2009-2019 using the Global Sugar Policy Simulation Model. This analysis is based on assumptions about general economic conditions, agricultural policies, population growth, weather conditions, and technological changes. Both the U.S. and world sugar economies are predicted to remain stable over the next ten years in spite of the 2007-08 increase in world oil prices. That increase in oil price caused an increase in the conversion of sugar into ethanol in Brazil, while other exporting countries increased their production of sugar in response to higher sugar prices. Sugar prices remained strong in 2009 as the world’s economies recover slowly from the recession. World demand for sugar is expected to grow at a similar rate to world supply, resulting in Caribbean sugar prices remaining near the 16.0-19.0 cents/lb range throughout the forecast period. The U.S. wholesale price of sugar is projected to increase from 33.72 cents/lb in 2009 to 36.19 cents/lb in 2019, if Brazil continues to convert sugar into ethanol. It is projected that Mexico would be able to export 483 thousand metric tons of sugar to the United States by 2019. World trade volumes of sugar are expected to increase throughout the forecast period.sugar, production, exports, consumption, ending stocks, Agribusiness,

2009 Outlook of the U.S. and World Sugar Markets, 2008-2018

This report evaluates the U.S. and world sugar markets for 2008-2018 using the Global Sugar Policy Simulation Model. This analysis is based on assumptions about general economic conditions, agricultural policies, population growth, weather conditions, and technological changes. Both the U.S. and world sugar economies are predicted to remain stable over the next ten years in spite of the 2007-08 surge in world oil prices. That increase in price caused an increase in the conversion of sugar into ethanol in Brazil, while other exporting countries increased their production in response to those higher prices. Sugar prices returned to normal levels in 2008. World demand for sugar is expected to grow at a similar rate to world supply, resulting in Carribean sugar prices remaining near the 13.0 -14.0 cents/lb range throughout the forecast period. The U.S. wholesale price of sugar is projected to decrease slightly from 28.60 cents/lb in 2008 to 28.40 cents/lb in 2018, if Brazil continues to convert sugar into ethanol. It is projected that Mexico will be able to export 119 thousand metric tons of sugar to the United States by 2018. World trade volumes of sugar are expected to increase throughout the forecast period.sugar, production, exports, consumption, ending stocks, Crop Production/Industries, Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade,

2009 Outlook of the U.S. and World Wheat Industries, 2008-2018

This report evaluates the U.S. and world wheat markets for the 2008-2018 period using the Global Wheat Policy Simulation Model. This analysis is based on a series of assumptions about general economic conditions, agricultural policies, weather conditions, and technological change. Both the U.S. and world wheat economies are predicted to remain relatively healthy for the next ten years. World demand for both common and durum wheat are expected to remain strong. The price levels in 2007 and 2008 will not be maintained in 2009 and future because increased wheat and corn production in 2008 and reduced demand for corn for ethanol production will lower demand and increase supply. World trade volumes of both classes of wheat are expected to expand, but trade volume of common wheat may grow faster than that of durum wheat.common wheat, durum wheat, production, exports, consumption, ending stocks, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy,

2002 OUTLOOK OF THE U.S. AND WORLD WHEAT INDUSTRIES, 2001-2011

This report evaluates the U.S. and world wheat markets for the 2002-2012 period by using the Global Wheat Policy Simulation Model. This analysis is based on a series of assumptions about general economic conditions, agricultural policies, weather conditions, and technological change. Both the U.S. and world wheat economies are predicted to improve for the next ten years. World demands for both common and durum wheat are expected to grow faster than world production of the two wheat classes, resulting in gradual increases in prices of the wheat varieties, which are predicted to increase 15.3% for durum wheat and 17.3% for common wheat for the 2002-2012 period. World trade volumes of both classes of wheat are expected to expand, but trade volume of durum wheat may grow faster than common wheat.common wheat, durum wheat, production, exports, consumption, ending stocks, Crop Production/Industries,

2003 OUTLOOK OF THE U.S. AND WORLD SUGAR MARKETS, 2002-2012

This report evaluates the U.S. and world sugar markets for 2002-2012 using the Global Sugar Policy Simulation Model. This analysis is based on assumptions about general economic conditions, agricultural policies, population growth, weather conditions, and technological changes. Both the U.S. and world sugar economies are predicted to improve over the next 10 years after the current over-supply is reduced. World demand for sugar is expected to grow faster than world supply, resulting in Caribbean sugar prices gradually increasing from 7.88 cents/lb in 2002 to 12.15 cents/lb in 2012. The U.S. wholesale price of sugar is projected to increase from 21.76 cents/lb in 2002 to 25.28 cents/lb in 2012, if the United States maintains its sugar programs. World trade volumes of sugar are expected to expand slightly.sugar, production, exports, consumption, ending stocks., Crop Production/Industries,

1999 OUTLOOK OF THE U.S. AND WORLD SUGAR MARKETS

This report evaluates the U.S. and world sugar markets for 1998-2008 by using the World Sugar Policy Simulation Model. This analysis is based on assumptions about general economic conditions, agricultural policies, population growth, weather conditions, and technological changes. Both the U.S. and world sugar economies are predicted to be strong for the next ten years. World demand for sugar is expected to grow faster than world supply, gradually increasing sugar prices. World trade volumes of sugar are expected to expand.Sugar, Production, Exports, Consumption, Ending Stocks, Agricultural and Food Policy, Marketing, International Relations/Trade,

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF THE FARMERS UNION FARM BILL PROPOSAL

The lack of a safety net for farm income in the FAIR Act has become evident in recent years because of the necessity of federal legislation each year, 1998-2001, to support farm income. In recent years, U.S. agriculture has experienced a rapid loss of mid-size family farms. The number of small-size farms has increased substantially and the number of large farms has increased slowly. The Farmers Union Farm Bill Proposal is a targeted plan which utilizes varying loan rates based on the USDA's full cost of production for program crops and a Farmer Owned Reserve (FOR). The proposed loan rates decrease as the value of the crop loans increase. The FOR is targeted towards a Limited Renewable Energy Reserve and a Humanitarian Assistance Reserve. The objectives of the study were to develop a distribution of farms in North Dakota by size and estimate the statewide government cost of the Farmers Union Proposal under the baseline and Farmers Union price scenario and compare it to the continuation of the FAIR Act.Farm Bill, Targeting, Government Agricultural Spending, North Dakota Representative Farms, Agricultural and Food Policy,

Expected Changes in China's Grain and Oilseed Industries and Implications for the U.S. and World Agriculture

A spatial optimization model was developed to analyze the impacts of structural changes in China’s consumption of wheat, corn, rice, and soybeans on its agricultural sector and world agricultural trade. The model included 16 exporting and importing countries and regions. China was divided into 31 provinces and the United States into 24 producing regions and 10 consuming regions. The model optimizes agricultural production and distribution systems to meet the predicted demand for grains and oilseeds in 2020 under several assumptions associated with technical progress in producing the grains and oilseeds in China, the United States, and other countries.spatial optimization, China, demand, supply, trade, agricultural commodities, Demand and Price Analysis, Industrial Organization, International Development,