THE APPLICATION OF A STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING PROCESS TO DERIVE 21{sup ST} CENTURY RIVER FLOW PREDICTIONS USING A GLOBAL CLIMATE SIMULATION

The ability of water managers to maintain adequate supplies in coming decades depends, in part, on future weather conditions, as climate change has the potential to alter river flows from their current values, possibly rendering them unable to meet demand. Reliable climate projections are therefore critical to predicting the future water supply for the United States. These projections cannot be provided solely by global climate models (GCMs), however, as their resolution is too coarse to resolve the small-scale climate changes that can affect hydrology, and hence water supply, at regional to local scales. A process is needed to ‘downscale’ the GCM results to the smaller scales and feed this into a surface hydrology model to help determine the ability of rivers to provide adequate flow to meet future needs. We apply a statistical downscaling to GCM projections of precipitation and temperature through the use of a scaling method. This technique involves the correction of the cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of the GCM-derived temperature and precipitation results for the 20{sup th} century, and the application of the same correction to 21{sup st} century GCM projections. This is done for three meteorological stations located within the Coosa River basin in northern Georgia, and is used to calculate future river flow statistics for the upper Coosa River. Results are compared to the historical Coosa River flow upstream from Georgia Power Company’s Hammond coal-fired power plant and to flows calculated with the original, unscaled GCM results to determine the impact of potential changes in meteorology on future flows

Reducing seed viability of flaxleaf fleabane, feathertop Rhodes grass and awnless barnyard grass

In the sub-tropical grain region of Australia, cotton and grains systems are now dominated by flaxleaf fleabane (Conyza bonariensis (L.) Cronquist), feathertop Rhodes grass (Chloris virgata Sw.) and awnless barnyard grass (Echinochloa colona (L.) Link). While control of these weed species is best achieved when they are young, previous studies have shown a potential for reducing seed viability and minimising seed bank replenishment by applying herbicides when plants are reproductive. Pot trials were established over two growing seasons to examine the effects of 2,4-D, 2,4-D + picloram, glyphosate and glufosinate which had been successful on other species, along with paraquat and haloxyfop (grasses only). Herbicides were applied at ¾ field rates in an attempt not to kill the plants. Flaxleaf fleabane plants were sprayed at two growth stages (budding and flowering) and the grasses were sprayed at two stages (late tillering/booting and flowering). Spraying flaxleaf fleabane at flowering reduced seed viability to 0% (of untreated) in all treatments except glyphosate (51%) and 2,4-D + picloram (8%). Seed viability was not reduced with the first and second regrowths with the exception of 2,4-D + picloram where viability was reduced to 20%. When sprayed at budding only 2,4-D + picloram reduced seed viability in both trials. Spraying the grasses at late tillering/booting did not reduce viability except for glufosinate on awnless barnyard grass (50%). Applying herbicides at flowering resulted in 0% seed viability in awnless barnyard grass from glufosinate, paraquat and glyphosate and 0% viability in feathertop Rhodes grass for glufosinate. These herbicides were less effective on heads that emerged and flowered after spraying, only slightly reducing seed viability. These trials have shown that attempts to reduce seed viability have potential, however flaxleaf fleabane and feathertop Rhodes grass are able to regrow and will need on-going monitoring and control measures

Reducing seed viability of flaxleaf fleabane, feathertop Rhodes grass and awnless barnyard grass

In the sub-tropical grain region of Australia, cotton and grains systems are now dominated by flaxleaf fleabane (Conyza bonariensis (L.) Cronquist), feathertop Rhodes grass (Chloris virgata Sw.) and awnless barnyard grass (Echinochloa colona (L.) Link). While control of these weed species is best achieved when they are young, previous studies have shown a potential for reducing seed viability and minimising seed bank replenishment by applying herbicides when plants are reproductive. Pot trials were established over two growing seasons to examine the effects of 2,4-D, 2,4-D + picloram, glyphosate and glufosinate which had been successful on other species, along with paraquat and haloxyfop (grasses only). Herbicides were applied at ¾ field rates in an attempt not to kill the plants. Flaxleaf fleabane plants were sprayed at two growth stages (budding and flowering) and the grasses were sprayed at two stages (late tillering/booting and flowering). Spraying flaxleaf fleabane at flowering reduced seed viability to 0% (of untreated) in all treatments except glyphosate (51%) and 2,4-D + picloram (8%). Seed viability was not reduced with the first and second regrowths with the exception of 2,4-D + picloram where viability was reduced to 20%. When sprayed at budding only 2,4-D + picloram reduced seed viability in both trials. Spraying the grasses at late tillering/booting did not reduce viability except for glufosinate on awnless barnyard grass (50%). Applying herbicides at flowering resulted in 0% seed viability in awnless barnyard grass from glufosinate, paraquat and glyphosate and 0% viability in feathertop Rhodes grass for glufosinate. These herbicides were less effective on heads that emerged and flowered after spraying, only slightly reducing seed viability. These trials have shown that attempts to reduce seed viability have potential, however flaxleaf fleabane and feathertop Rhodes grass are able to regrow and will need on-going monitoring and control measures

A Three Dimensional Lattice of Ion Traps

We propose an ion trap configuration such that individual traps can be stacked together in a three dimensional simple cubic arrangement. The isolated trap as well as the extended array of ion traps are characterized for different locations in the lattice, illustrating the robustness of the lattice of traps concept. Ease in the addressing of ions at each lattice site, individually or simultaneously, makes this system naturally suitable for a number of experiments. Application of this trap to precision spectroscopy, quantum information processing and the study of few particle interacting system are discussed.Comment: 4 pages, 4 Figures. Fig 1 appears as a composite of 1a, 1b, 1c and 1d. Fig 2 appears as a composite of 2a, 2b and 2

Medical Equipment Library design: Revealing issues and best practice using DiCoT

Medical Equipment Libraries (MELs) are a relatively new function for hospitals in the UK, which aim to save money and make medical practice safer. They centralize the management, maintenance and purchasing of medical equipment. They are being embraced and developed by some hospitals, and considered by others. Hence, there is a growing need to understand MEL practice and design. This paper compares three MELs through interviews and observations of everyday practice using DiCoT (Distributed Cognition for Teamwork) as a method for multisite comparison. This is a novel use of the method that reveals general issues and best practices across contexts. Our results complement the little formal information that is available on MELs, and explores the workings of the library as a socio-technical system. As far as we are aware no empirical studies have been published in this area. We conclude with design opportunities and requirements for MELs, and propose DiCoT as an effective way to compare socio-technical systems, including revealing issues and best practices in other clinical contexts more broadly

UNCERTAINTY IN THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM

We validated one year of Global Forecast System (GFS) predictions of surface meteorological variables (wind speed, air temperature, dewpoint temperature, air pressure) over the entire planet for forecasts extending from zero hours into the future (an analysis) to 36 hours. Approximately 12,000 surface stations world-wide were included in this analysis. Root-Mean-Square- Errors (RMSE) increased as the forecast period increased from zero to 36 hours, but the initial RMSE were almost as large as the 36 hour forecast RMSE for all variables. Typical RMSE were 3 C for air temperature, 2-3mb for sea-level pressure, 3.5 C for dewpoint temperature and 2.5 m/s for wind speed. Approximately 20-40% of the GFS errors can be attributed to a lack of resolution of local features. We attribute the large initial RMSE for the zero hour forecasts to the inability of the GFS to resolve local terrain features that often dominate local weather conditions, e.g., mountain- valley circulations and sea and land breezes. Since the horizontal resolution of the GFS (about 1{sup o} of latitude and longitude) prevents it from simulating these locally-driven circulations, its performance will not improve until model resolution increases by a factor of 10 or more (from about 100 km to less than 10 km). Since this will not happen in the near future, an alternative for the near term to improve surface weather analyses and predictions for specific points in space and time would be implementation of a high-resolution, limited-area mesoscale atmospheric prediction model in regions of interest

Collective motional resonances and instabilities of an electron cloud stored in a Penning trap

We have experimentally investigated the behavior of an electron cloud confined in a Penning trap at weak superimposed magnetic fields. Exciting the motional frequencies of the electrons by an external drive field we found the axial mode split into two components which were identified as center-of-mass and individual electron oscillations. When the trapping potential was varied, rapid electron loss appeared at numerous values of the applied voltage. They are determined by the relation n z ω z + n m ω m =ω c . ω z ,ω m ,ω c are the axial, magnetron, and cyclotron frequency of the trapped electrons, respectively. The reason for this loss is attributed to higher order contributions to the ideal quadrupole trapping potential