Monetary Policies in Interdependent Economies: An Open Economy Explanation for Base Drift and Price-Level Non-Trend-Stationarities

Most nations have experienced \u27base drift\u27 of their money stocks and associated price-level non-trend-stationarities. Recent explanations for this fact have emphasized tensions among various possible objectives of central banks in closed-economy or small-open-economy frameworks. In contrast, this paper explores structural and policy interdependence among economies as an explanation for price-level non-trend-stationarities. It demonstrates that such interdependence can induce central banks to follow non-trend-stationary policies even if they desire only to smooth prices in their home economies

(WP 2007-03) Trade Openness, Capital Mobility, and the Sacrifice Ratio

This paper develops and evaluates empirically the implications of a theoretical model of an open economy in which variations in both trade openness and capital mobility can influence the sacrifice ratio. Key predictions forthcoming from the model are that both forms of globalization can independently affect the capital ratio, once the influences of the level of central bank independence and the degree of wage stickiness in nations‘ economies are taken into account. Examination of cross-country data encompassing 58 disinflations for 16 countries yields evidence consistent with these essential predictions of the theoretical framework

Trade Openness, Capital Mobility, and the Sacrifice Ratio

This paper develops and evaluates empirically the implications of a theoretical model of an open economy in which variations in both trade openness and capital mobility can influence the sacrifice ratio. Key predictions forthcoming from the model are that both forms of globalization can independently affect the sacrifice ratio, once the influences of the level of central bank independence and the degree of wage stickiness in nations’ economies are taken into account. Examination of cross-country data encompassing 58 disinflations for 16 countries yields evidence consistent with these essential predictions of the theoretical framework

Exchange-rate Pass Through, Openness, and the Sacrifice Ratio

Considerable recent work has reached mixed conclusions about whether and how globalization affects the inflation–output trade-off and suggests that the ultimate effect of openness on the output–inflation relationship is influenced by a variety of factors. In this paper, we consider the impact of exchange-rate pass through and examine how pass through conditions the effect of openness on the sacrifice ratio. We develop a simple theoretical model showing how the extent of both pass through and openness can interact to influence the output–inflation relationship. Next we empirically explore the nature of these two variables and their interaction. Results indicate that greater pass through increases the sacrifice ratio, that there is statistically significant interaction between pass through and openness, and—once the extent of pass through is taken into account alongside other factors that affect the sacrifice ratio, such as central bank independence—openness fails to exert an empirically robust effect on the sacrifice ratio

(WP 2010-05) Exchange-Rate Pass Through, Openness, and the Sacrifice Ratio

Considerable recent work has reached mixed conclusions about whether and how globalization affects the inflation-output trade-off and suggests that the ultimate effect of openness on the output-inflation relationship is influenced by a variety of factors. In this paper, we consider the impact of exchange-rate pass through and how pass through conditions the effect of openness on the sacrifice ratio. We develop a simple theoretical model showing how both the extent of pass through and openness can interact to influence the output-inflation relationship. Next we empirically explore the nature of these two variables and their interaction. Results indicate that greater pass through increases the sacrifice ratio, that there is significant interaction among pass through and openness, and—once the extent of pass through is taken into account alongside other factors that affect the sacrifice ratio, such as central bank independence—openness exerts an empirically ambiguous effect on the sacrifice ratio

Openness, Income-Tax Progressivity, and Inflation

This paper considers a model of an open economy in which the degree of income-tax progressivity influences the interaction among openness, central bank independence, and the inflation rate. Our model suggests that an increase in the progressivity of the tax system induces a smaller response in real output to a change in the price level. This implies that increased income-tax progressivity reduces the equilibrium inflation rate and that the effect of increased income-tax progressivity on inflation is smaller when the central bank places a higher weight on inflation or when there is greater openness. Examination of cross-country inflation data provides empirical support for these key predictions

(WP 2009-02) Exchange-Rate Pass Through, Openness, and the Sacrifice Ratio

Considerable recent work has reached mixed conclusions about whether and how globalization affects the inflation‐output trade‐off and suggests that the ultimate effect of openness on the output‐inflation relationship is influenced by a variety of factors. In this paper, we consider the impact of exchange‐rate pass through and how pass through conditions the effect of openness on the sacrifice ratio. We develop a simple theoretical model showing how both the extent of pass through and openness can interact to influence the output‐inflation relationship. Next we empirically explore the nature of these two variables and their interaction. Results indicate that greater pass through increases the sacrifice ratio, that there is significant interaction among pass through and openness, and—once the extent of pass through is taken into account alongside other factors that affect the sacrifice ratio, such as central bank independence—openness exerts an empirically ambiguous effect on the sacrifice ratio

(WP 2007-01) Openness, Income-Tax Progressivity, and Inflation

This paper considers a model of an open economy in which the degree of income-tax progressivity influences the interaction among openness, central bank independence, and the inflation rate. Our model suggests that an increase in the progressivity of the tax system induces a smaller response in real output to a change in the price level. This implies that increased income-tax progressivity reduces the equilibrium inflation rate and that the effect of increased income-tax progressivity on inflation is smaller when the central bank places a higher weight on inflation or when there is greater openness. Examination of cross-country inflation data provides empirical support for these key predictions

Currency Substitution, Seigniorage, and Currency Crises in Interdependent Economies

This paper applies a two-country framework that allows for currency substitution in an environment in which policymakers optimally vary interest rates in light of utility-based objectives, one country pegs the value of its currency to the other nation’s currency, and government revenue is generated via explicit taxes and seigniorage. The analysis illustrates the roles that currency substitution, currency preferences, and efficiency of tax systems play in contributing to the likelihood of a “run” on one nation’s currency. We explore how these factors interact to influence the probability of a currency crisis in the country that fixes its exchange rate

The rise of goods-market competition and the fall of nominal wage contracting: endogenous wage contracting in a multisector economy

This paper shows how heterogeneity wage-setting and a link between nominal wage flexibility andg goods-market competition rise in a multisector economy that is affected by aggregate and sector-specific shocks. Aggregate volatility increases the variance of real contract wages, whereas sectoral volatility increase the relative variance of real Walrasian wages. Given this tradeoff, the prevalence of nominal wage contracting reflects both the relative volatility of aggregate versus sectoral disturbances and the overall degree of goods-market market competition. We find that these variables help explain the decline in unionization (a proxy for contracting in) the United States.Markets ; Wages